The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Fernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
eng
Título da fonte: Revista de Administração Pública
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177
Resumo: The motives for choosing the government’s chief executive are of vital importance in a democratic society. In this article, evidence is presented of how local economic growth in the last year of government has a positive impact on the percentage of votes obtained by the incumbent in a population sample of Brazilian municipalities, with data of the presidential and municipal elections of 2000 to 2010. Real GDP growth of the city is used as a measure of local economic growth to test the hypothesis that voters in a municipality tend to reward incumbents and their candidates, if they had good economic performance in the last year of their mandate. The hypothesis is based on the economic theory of voting, suggesting that incumbents are more likely to win re-election, or elect their successor, when the economy is good. Panel and Multilevel models are used to detail the effects and the impact of economic growth in the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent. The multilevel analysis was used in order to better explore existing heterogeneity in the economic voting phenomenon and thereby infer how economic growth effects may vary among parties, the federation units, constituency and other variables.
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spelling The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governmentsLa importancia del crecimiento económico local en la elección del jefe del Ejecutivo en BrasilA importância do crescimento econômico local na escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasilaccountabilityeconomic votepublic expenditureaccountabilityvoto económicogasto públicoaccountabilityvoto econômicogasto públicoThe motives for choosing the government’s chief executive are of vital importance in a democratic society. In this article, evidence is presented of how local economic growth in the last year of government has a positive impact on the percentage of votes obtained by the incumbent in a population sample of Brazilian municipalities, with data of the presidential and municipal elections of 2000 to 2010. Real GDP growth of the city is used as a measure of local economic growth to test the hypothesis that voters in a municipality tend to reward incumbents and their candidates, if they had good economic performance in the last year of their mandate. The hypothesis is based on the economic theory of voting, suggesting that incumbents are more likely to win re-election, or elect their successor, when the economy is good. Panel and Multilevel models are used to detail the effects and the impact of economic growth in the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent. The multilevel analysis was used in order to better explore existing heterogeneity in the economic voting phenomenon and thereby infer how economic growth effects may vary among parties, the federation units, constituency and other variables.La investigación de los factores que influyen en la elección del jefe del Ejecutivo en Brasil es un asunto de vital impor­tancia en la literatura. En este artículo, presentamos evidencia de que el crecimiento económico local en el último año del gobierno tiene un impacto positivo en el porcentaje de votos obtenidos por el incumbente en una muestra de los municipios brasileños, con datos relativos a las elecciones presidenciales y municipales de 2000 a 2010. Utilizamos el crecimiento real del PIB municipal como medida de crecimiento económico local para poner a prueba la hipótesis de que los votantes en una ciudad tienden a recompensar el titular y sus candidatos que tuvieron un buen desempeño económico en el último año de mandato. La hipótesis se base en la teoría económica de la votación que sugiere que los titulares tienen más probabilidades de ganar la reelección, o elegir a su sucesor, cuando la economía está en un buen momento. En el análisis se utiliza los métodos de datos de panel y el análisis multinivel con el fin de aprovechar mejor la heterogeneidad existente en el fenómeno del voto económico y con ello inferir la existencia de efectos del crecimiento económico sobre la proporción de votos obtenidos por el incumbente y cómo estos efectos pueden variar en relación a partidos, las unidades de la federación, circunscripción electoral y otras variables.A investigação dos fatores que influenciam a escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasil é uma questão de vital importância. Neste artigo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico local no último ano de governo possui impacto positivo na porcentagem de votos obtidos pelo incumbente em uma amostra da população dos municípios brasileiros, com dados das eleições presidenciais e municipais de 2000 a 2010. Usamos a expansão real do PIB municipal como medida do crescimento econômico local e testamos a hipótese de que os eleitores em um município premiam os incumbentes, ou seus respectivos candidatos, que tiveram bom desempenho econômico no último ano de mandato. A hipótese se baseia na teoria econômica do voto que sugere que os incumbentes têm mais chances de vencer uma reeleição, ou eleger seu sucessor, quando a economia está em um bom momento. Na análise utilizamos as abordagens para dados em painel, além de análise multinível, de modo a melhor explorar a heterogeneidade existente no fenômeno do voto econômico e com isso inferir a existência de efeitos do crescimento econômico na proporção de votos obtidos pelo incumbente e como esses efeitos podem variar em relação a partidos, unidades da federação, circunscrição eleitoral e outras variáveis.Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV EBAPE)2017-08-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177Brazilian Journal of Public Administration; Vol. 51 No. 4 (2017); 653-688Revista de Administração Pública; Vol. 51 Núm. 4 (2017); 653-688Revista de Administração Pública; v. 51 n. 4 (2017); 653-6881982-31340034-7612reponame:Revista de Administração Públicainstname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVporenghttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177/68623https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177/pdf_127Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Administração Públicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida LopesFernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes2017-08-31T13:48:16Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/71177Revistahttps://ebape.fgv.br/publicacoes/rapONGhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||rap@fgv.br1982-31340034-7612opendoar:2017-08-31T13:48:16Revista de Administração Pública - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
La importancia del crecimiento económico local en la elección del jefe del Ejecutivo en Brasil
A importância do crescimento econômico local na escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasil
title The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
spellingShingle The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes
accountability
economic vote
public expenditure
accountability
voto económico
gasto público
accountability
voto econômico
gasto público
title_short The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
title_full The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
title_fullStr The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
title_full_unstemmed The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
title_sort The importance of local economic growth on the elections of Brazilian chief executives of governments
author Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes
author_facet Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes
Fernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes
author_role author
author2 Fernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Fernandes, Ivan Filipe de Almeida Lopes
Fernandes, Gustavo Andrey de Almeida Lopes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv accountability
economic vote
public expenditure
accountability
voto económico
gasto público
accountability
voto econômico
gasto público
topic accountability
economic vote
public expenditure
accountability
voto económico
gasto público
accountability
voto econômico
gasto público
description The motives for choosing the government’s chief executive are of vital importance in a democratic society. In this article, evidence is presented of how local economic growth in the last year of government has a positive impact on the percentage of votes obtained by the incumbent in a population sample of Brazilian municipalities, with data of the presidential and municipal elections of 2000 to 2010. Real GDP growth of the city is used as a measure of local economic growth to test the hypothesis that voters in a municipality tend to reward incumbents and their candidates, if they had good economic performance in the last year of their mandate. The hypothesis is based on the economic theory of voting, suggesting that incumbents are more likely to win re-election, or elect their successor, when the economy is good. Panel and Multilevel models are used to detail the effects and the impact of economic growth in the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent. The multilevel analysis was used in order to better explore existing heterogeneity in the economic voting phenomenon and thereby infer how economic growth effects may vary among parties, the federation units, constituency and other variables.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-08-09
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177
url https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
eng
language por
eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177/68623
https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/71177/pdf_127
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Administração Pública
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2017 Revista de Administração Pública
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV EBAPE)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV EBAPE)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Brazilian Journal of Public Administration; Vol. 51 No. 4 (2017); 653-688
Revista de Administração Pública; Vol. 51 Núm. 4 (2017); 653-688
Revista de Administração Pública; v. 51 n. 4 (2017); 653-688
1982-3134
0034-7612
reponame:Revista de Administração Pública
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Revista de Administração Pública
collection Revista de Administração Pública
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista de Administração Pública - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rap@fgv.br
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