Estimation of future social demands for local public policy making: discussion notes

• Autor(a) principal: Jannuzzi, Paulo de Martino
• Data de Publicação: 1999
• Outros Autores: Pasquali, Franco Alberto
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Revista de Administração Pública
• Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rap/article/view/7652
• topic: public policy; demographic projections; urban planning.; las políticas públicas; proyecciones demográficas; la planificación urbana.; políticas públicas; projeções demográficas; planejamento urbano.

Different factors have contributed to disseminate and consolidate public planning practices at local levei during the 90s' in Brazil. However, the technical skills for public policy making and, especially, for forecasting the quantitative demand for social programs is still limited, even in the major and richest cities. This paper intends to contribute for the improvement of localplanning activities by discussing the role, feasibility, and application of quantitative studies for forecasting the demands for social services and facilities, as a support for public investments and urban development plans. It discusses the demographic factors that affect the nature and the target usersof social policies, and presents a methodological framework for the estimation of social demands. Finally, the paper illustrates the feasibility and adequacy of this method through the example of a study that supported the development of a local plurianual investment plan.