Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 1999 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747 |
Resumo: | This article has two parts. In the first we analyze the reasons for the persistence in the rates of inflation in Brazil, and describe the diagnosis that prescribed the monetary reform of 1994. In the second part we concentrate on the economic policy after the monetary reformo Inflation inertia was generated by the generalized indexation of prices, wages and the exchange rate. Money passivity increased the persistence in the rates of inflation, impeding the dissipation of irlflationary shocks. In spite of high fiscal deficits the public debt did not have an unsustainable growth, due to the combined effect of segniorage,to the "Patinkin effect" acting on public expenditures, and to the relatively low real interest rates in comparison to the rates of growth of GDP. The monetary reform of 1994 has eliminated indexation practically over night, and exchange rate started to function as a nominal anchor since the moment in which the Central Bank adopted a crawling peg regime.The second part concentrates on the effects of the (lack of) fiscal policy, the appreciation of the exchange rates and the high rates of interest in stabilizing prices in the short run, but in increasing Brazilian vulnerability to speculative attacks, in the long-run. The stabilization plan has not produced a fiscal reformo Combined with the appreciation of the exchange rate that occurred in the short period immediately after the monetary reform, the expansionary fiscal Policy produced rising current account deficits. In order to maintain an overvalued exchange rate in the presence of high fiscal deficits,the real interest rate has been kept in extremely high leveis, increasing even further the fiscal deficit. Fixed exchange rate arrangements combined with a high international capital mobility, with a an expansionary fiscal policy and a contractionary monetary policy, are a very efficient recipe to produce speculative attacks. During the period covered by the present analysis Brazil received the effects of the Mexican and the South East Asia crisis, and reacted to both increasing interest rates to preserve the exchange rate regime, but has never produced a sufficient fiscal contraction. The two consequences where a very low rate of growth of GDP, and a permanent vulnerability to speculative attacks. |
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Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência BrasileiraInflação e Estabilização: Algumas Licões da I Experiência BrasileiraEstabilizaçõ de preçosinércia inflacionáriaregime cambial.Estabilizaçõ de preçosinércia inflacionáriaregime cambial.This article has two parts. In the first we analyze the reasons for the persistence in the rates of inflation in Brazil, and describe the diagnosis that prescribed the monetary reform of 1994. In the second part we concentrate on the economic policy after the monetary reformo Inflation inertia was generated by the generalized indexation of prices, wages and the exchange rate. Money passivity increased the persistence in the rates of inflation, impeding the dissipation of irlflationary shocks. In spite of high fiscal deficits the public debt did not have an unsustainable growth, due to the combined effect of segniorage,to the "Patinkin effect" acting on public expenditures, and to the relatively low real interest rates in comparison to the rates of growth of GDP. The monetary reform of 1994 has eliminated indexation practically over night, and exchange rate started to function as a nominal anchor since the moment in which the Central Bank adopted a crawling peg regime.The second part concentrates on the effects of the (lack of) fiscal policy, the appreciation of the exchange rates and the high rates of interest in stabilizing prices in the short run, but in increasing Brazilian vulnerability to speculative attacks, in the long-run. The stabilization plan has not produced a fiscal reformo Combined with the appreciation of the exchange rate that occurred in the short period immediately after the monetary reform, the expansionary fiscal Policy produced rising current account deficits. In order to maintain an overvalued exchange rate in the presence of high fiscal deficits,the real interest rate has been kept in extremely high leveis, increasing even further the fiscal deficit. Fixed exchange rate arrangements combined with a high international capital mobility, with a an expansionary fiscal policy and a contractionary monetary policy, are a very efficient recipe to produce speculative attacks. During the period covered by the present analysis Brazil received the effects of the Mexican and the South East Asia crisis, and reacted to both increasing interest rates to preserve the exchange rate regime, but has never produced a sufficient fiscal contraction. The two consequences where a very low rate of growth of GDP, and a permanent vulnerability to speculative attacks.Este artigo tem duas partes. Na primeira são analisadas as razões para a persistência nas taxas de inflação, e é descrito o diagnóstico que prescreveu a reforma monet'aria de 1994. A segunda parte concentra-se na política econômica seguida depois da reforma monetária.A inércia inflacionária era gerada pela indexação generalizada de preços, salários e da taxa cambial. A passividade monetária aumentava a persistência nas taxas de inflação, impedindo a dissipação dos choques inflacionários. Apesar dos déficits fiscais elevados, a dívida pública não tinha um crescimento insustentável, devido aos efeitos combinados da senhoriagem, do "efeito Patinkin" atuando sobre a despesa pública, e às taxas de juros reais relativamente mais baixas comparativamente às taxas de crescimento econômico. A reforma monetária de 1994 eliminou a indexação quase que instantaneamente,e a taxa cambial passou a funcionar como uma âncora monetária à partir do momento em que o Banco Central adotou o regime de "crawling-peg" .A segunda parte concentra-se nos efeitos da (falta de uma) política fiscal, da apreciação da taxa cambial e das elevadas taxas reais de juros na estabilização dos preços, a curto prazo, e no aumento da vulnerabilidade brasileira a ataques especulativos, no longo prazo. O plano de estabilização não produziu uma reforma fiscal. Combinado com a apreciação cambial ocorrida no curto período imediatamente posterior à reforma monetária, a política fiscal expansionista conduziu a déficits crescentes nas contas correntes. Para manter uma taxa cambial sobrevalorizada na presença de déficits fiscais elevados,a taxa de juros real teve que ser mantida em níveis extremamente altos, aumentando ainda mais o déficit público. Arranjos de câmbio fixo combinados com elevada mobilidade internacional de capitais,com uma política fiscal expansionista, e com uma política monetária contracionista, são uma receita extremamente eficiente para gerar ataques especulativos. Durante o período coberto por esta análise o Brasil recebeu os efeitos das crises mexicana e do sudeste asiático,e reagiu a ambas elevando as taxas reais de juros para preservar o regime cambial, mas nunca produziu a suficiente contração fiscal.As duas conseqüências foram taxas de crescimento do PIB extremamente baixas, e a vulnerabilidade permanente aos ataques especulativos.EGV EPGE1999-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticlesArtigosapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 53 No. 1 (1999); 3-40Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 53 n. 1 (1999); 3-401806-91340034-7140reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVporhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747/1738Pastore, Affonso CelsoPinotti, Maria Cristinainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2010-07-13T19:49:01Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/747Revistahttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/oai||rbe@fgv.br1806-91340034-7140opendoar:2024-03-06T13:02:45.895369Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Licões da I Experiência Brasileira |
title |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
spellingShingle |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira Pastore, Affonso Celso Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. |
title_short |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
title_full |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
title_fullStr |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
title_sort |
Inflação e Estabilização: Algumas Lições da Experiência Brasileira |
author |
Pastore, Affonso Celso |
author_facet |
Pastore, Affonso Celso Pinotti, Maria Cristina |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Pinotti, Maria Cristina |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pastore, Affonso Celso Pinotti, Maria Cristina |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. |
topic |
Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. Estabilizaçõ de preços inércia inflacionária regime cambial. |
description |
This article has two parts. In the first we analyze the reasons for the persistence in the rates of inflation in Brazil, and describe the diagnosis that prescribed the monetary reform of 1994. In the second part we concentrate on the economic policy after the monetary reformo Inflation inertia was generated by the generalized indexation of prices, wages and the exchange rate. Money passivity increased the persistence in the rates of inflation, impeding the dissipation of irlflationary shocks. In spite of high fiscal deficits the public debt did not have an unsustainable growth, due to the combined effect of segniorage,to the "Patinkin effect" acting on public expenditures, and to the relatively low real interest rates in comparison to the rates of growth of GDP. The monetary reform of 1994 has eliminated indexation practically over night, and exchange rate started to function as a nominal anchor since the moment in which the Central Bank adopted a crawling peg regime.The second part concentrates on the effects of the (lack of) fiscal policy, the appreciation of the exchange rates and the high rates of interest in stabilizing prices in the short run, but in increasing Brazilian vulnerability to speculative attacks, in the long-run. The stabilization plan has not produced a fiscal reformo Combined with the appreciation of the exchange rate that occurred in the short period immediately after the monetary reform, the expansionary fiscal Policy produced rising current account deficits. In order to maintain an overvalued exchange rate in the presence of high fiscal deficits,the real interest rate has been kept in extremely high leveis, increasing even further the fiscal deficit. Fixed exchange rate arrangements combined with a high international capital mobility, with a an expansionary fiscal policy and a contractionary monetary policy, are a very efficient recipe to produce speculative attacks. During the period covered by the present analysis Brazil received the effects of the Mexican and the South East Asia crisis, and reacted to both increasing interest rates to preserve the exchange rate regime, but has never produced a sufficient fiscal contraction. The two consequences where a very low rate of growth of GDP, and a permanent vulnerability to speculative attacks. |
publishDate |
1999 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
1999-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Articles Artigos |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747 |
url |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/747/1738 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EGV EPGE |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
EGV EPGE |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 53 No. 1 (1999); 3-40 Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 53 n. 1 (1999); 3-40 1806-9134 0034-7140 reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
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FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
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Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
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Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
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