Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bacha, Edmar
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Tombolo, Guilherme, Versiani, Flávio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204
Resumo: Abstract: We present evidence of overestimation of Brazil’s GDP growth both by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation from 1947 to 1980 and by Claudio Haddad from 1900 to 1947. The main reason is selection bias in favor of higher-growth goods-producing activities to the detriment of slower-growing service activities. We develop and apply methods to include such services in the real output series. As a result, we suggest haircuts that reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 7.4% to 6.2% in the 1947–1980 period and from 4.4% to 4.0% in the 1900–1947 period. For the whole 1900–1980 period, our suggested haircuts reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 5.7% to 4.9%.
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spelling Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980Brazil; National Accounts; 20th CenturyBrazil's national accounts 20th CenturyBrasil; Contas Nacionais; Século XXContas Nacionais Brasileiras Seculo XXAbstract: We present evidence of overestimation of Brazil’s GDP growth both by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation from 1947 to 1980 and by Claudio Haddad from 1900 to 1947. The main reason is selection bias in favor of higher-growth goods-producing activities to the detriment of slower-growing service activities. We develop and apply methods to include such services in the real output series. As a result, we suggest haircuts that reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 7.4% to 6.2% in the 1947–1980 period and from 4.4% to 4.0% in the 1900–1947 period. For the whole 1900–1980 period, our suggested haircuts reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 5.7% to 4.9%.Resumo: Apresentamos evidências de superestimação do crescimento do PIB brasileiro tanto pela Fundação Getúlio Vargas de 1947 a 1980 quanto por Claudio Haddad de 1900 a 1947. A principal razão é viés de seleção em favor de atividades produtoras de bens de maior crescimento em detrimento de atividades de serviços de menor crescimento. Desenvolvemos e aplicamos métodos para incluir tais serviços nas séries de produto real. Como resultado, sugerimos cortes que reduzem a taxa de crescimento anual do PIB de 7,4% para 6,2% no período de 1947-1980 e de 4,4% para 4,0% no período de 1900-1947. Para todo o período de 1900-1980, os cortes que sugerimos reduzem a taxa de crescimento anual do PIB de 5,7% para 4,9%.EGV EPGE2023-08-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticlesArtigosTextoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/otherapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 77 No. 3 (2023): JUL -SETRevista Brasileira de Economia; v. 77 n. 3 (2023): JUL -SET1806-91340034-7140reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVenghttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204/84349Brazil; 20th Century; National AccountsBrasil; Século XX; Contas NacionaisCopyright (c) 2023 Revista Brasileira de Economiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBacha, EdmarTombolo, GuilhermeVersiani, Flávio2023-08-30T22:48:57Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/88204Revistahttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/oai||rbe@fgv.br1806-91340034-7140opendoar:2024-03-06T13:03:54.469532Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)true
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
title Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
spellingShingle Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
Bacha, Edmar
Brazil; National Accounts; 20th Century
Brazil's national accounts 20th Century
Brasil; Contas Nacionais; Século XX
Contas Nacionais Brasileiras Seculo XX
title_short Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
title_full Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
title_fullStr Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
title_full_unstemmed Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
title_sort Reestimating Brazil’s GDP growth from 1900 to 1980
author Bacha, Edmar
author_facet Bacha, Edmar
Tombolo, Guilherme
Versiani, Flávio
author_role author
author2 Tombolo, Guilherme
Versiani, Flávio
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bacha, Edmar
Tombolo, Guilherme
Versiani, Flávio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Brazil; National Accounts; 20th Century
Brazil's national accounts 20th Century
Brasil; Contas Nacionais; Século XX
Contas Nacionais Brasileiras Seculo XX
topic Brazil; National Accounts; 20th Century
Brazil's national accounts 20th Century
Brasil; Contas Nacionais; Século XX
Contas Nacionais Brasileiras Seculo XX
description Abstract: We present evidence of overestimation of Brazil’s GDP growth both by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation from 1947 to 1980 and by Claudio Haddad from 1900 to 1947. The main reason is selection bias in favor of higher-growth goods-producing activities to the detriment of slower-growing service activities. We develop and apply methods to include such services in the real output series. As a result, we suggest haircuts that reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 7.4% to 6.2% in the 1947–1980 period and from 4.4% to 4.0% in the 1900–1947 period. For the whole 1900–1980 period, our suggested haircuts reduce the GDP yearly growth rate from 5.7% to 4.9%.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-08-11
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articles
Artigos
Texto
info:eu-repo/semantics/other
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204
url https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204/84349
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Revista Brasileira de Economia
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Revista Brasileira de Economia
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Brazil; 20th Century; National Accounts
Brasil; Século XX; Contas Nacionais
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv EGV EPGE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv EGV EPGE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 77 No. 3 (2023): JUL -SET
Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 77 n. 3 (2023): JUL -SET
1806-9134
0034-7140
reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
collection Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rbe@fgv.br
_version_ 1798943115790254080

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