The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.
Data de Publicação: 2011
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
eng
Título da fonte: Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064
Resumo: This paper offers additional insights on the relationship between interest rates and business cycles in Brazil. First, I document that Brazilian interest rates are very volatile, counter-cyclical and positively correlated with net exports, as observed in other emerging market economies. Next, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face working capital constraints and labor supply is independent of consumption. This parsimonious model, appropriately calibrated to the Brazilian economy, predicts that interest rate shocks can explain about one third of output fluctuations and delivers business cycle regularities consistent with the Brazilian data.
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spelling The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business CyclesThe Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business CyclesInterest RatesBusiness CyclesCountry RiskBrazilInterest RatesBusiness CyclesCountry RiskBrazilThis paper offers additional insights on the relationship between interest rates and business cycles in Brazil. First, I document that Brazilian interest rates are very volatile, counter-cyclical and positively correlated with net exports, as observed in other emerging market economies. Next, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face working capital constraints and labor supply is independent of consumption. This parsimonious model, appropriately calibrated to the Brazilian economy, predicts that interest rate shocks can explain about one third of output fluctuations and delivers business cycle regularities consistent with the Brazilian data.Este artigo fornece evidências adicionais sobre a relação entre taxa de juros e ciclos econômicos no Brasil. Primeiro, o artigo documenta que a taxa de juros do país é muito volátil, contracíclica e positivamente correlacionada com as exportações líquidas, conforme observado em outras economias emergentes. Em seguida, o artigo apresenta um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico no qual as empresas operam com restrições de capital de giro e onde a oferta de trabalho é independente do consumo (ausência de efeito renda). Este modelo parcimonioso, devidamente calibrado para a economia brasileira, prevê que choques na taxa de juros são capazes de explicar cerca de um terço das flutuações do produto e gera regularidades ao longo do ciclo econômico que são consistentes com os dados do Brasil.EGV EPGE2011-09-27info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticlesArtigosapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 65 No. 3 (2011); 315-336Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 65 n. 3 (2011); 315-3361806-91340034-7140reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVporenghttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064/2262https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064/2264Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2011-09-27T15:29:17Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/3064Revistahttps://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/oai||rbe@fgv.br1806-91340034-7140opendoar:2024-03-06T13:03:29.233503Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)true
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
title The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
spellingShingle The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.
Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
title_short The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
title_full The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
title_fullStr The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
title_full_unstemmed The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
title_sort The Role of Interest Rates in the Brazilian Business Cycles
author Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.
author_facet Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
topic Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
Interest Rates
Business Cycles
Country Risk
Brazil
description This paper offers additional insights on the relationship between interest rates and business cycles in Brazil. First, I document that Brazilian interest rates are very volatile, counter-cyclical and positively correlated with net exports, as observed in other emerging market economies. Next, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face working capital constraints and labor supply is independent of consumption. This parsimonious model, appropriately calibrated to the Brazilian economy, predicts that interest rate shocks can explain about one third of output fluctuations and delivers business cycle regularities consistent with the Brazilian data.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-09-27
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articles
Artigos
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064
url https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
eng
language por
eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064/2262
https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/3064/2264
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv EGV EPGE
publisher.none.fl_str_mv EGV EPGE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Economia; Vol. 65 No. 3 (2011); 315-336
Revista Brasileira de Economia; v. 65 n. 3 (2011); 315-336
1806-9134
0034-7140
reponame:Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
collection Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rbe@fgv.br
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