Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2024 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos EBAPE.BR |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030 |
Resumo: | Departing from the inconclusive results of the scant literature on the COVID-19 impact on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), this paper proposes a novel evaluation model for addressing this issue through managerial perceptions. Over 6000 SMEs responded to twelve rounds of surveys from 2020 to 2021 during the pandemic, allowing to track the evolution over time of the perceived impact of the pandemic on small businesses. A novel entropy-weighted utility function approach is proposed here, followed by artificial neural network regression to map the variables related to the SME’s businesses that most foster the perceived utility of each business criterion during the pandemic. First, weights of business-related criteria were computed using Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), sorting their relative importance – or perceptions - based on information entropy ranks derived from questionnaires collected. Transfer entropy measurements also helped in unveiling the hidden cause-effect relationships among criteria. Second, business utility functions for each criterion were computed using Complex Proportional Assessment based on SWARA weights. Third, neural network regressions were used to explain the managerial perceptions on each business criterion during the pandemic, considering each business variable. Our expected and unexpected results suggest that more resilient SMEs in Brazil are 5-10 years old and operating in the services and construction sectors. Moreover, loan success is the second most impactful criterion, deeply impacting the continuity of economic activity levels, and it is not impacted by any other business criteria. Implications for policymakers and governmental actions are highlighted. |
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Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functionsImpacto de la COVID-19 en las pymes en Brasil y factores impulsores de la percepción gerencial: un nuevo modelo neuronal basado en funciones de utilidad ponderadas por entropíaImpacto da COVID-19 nas PMEs no Brasil e drivers de percepção gerencial: um novo modelo neural baseado em funções de utilidade ponderadas pela entropiaSMEBusiness-related variablesUtility functionsInformation entropyCOVID-19 impactPymesVariables relacionadas con el negocioFunciones de utilidadEntropía de la informaciónImpacto de la COVID-19PMEVariáveis relacionadas ao negócioFunções utilitáriasEntropia da informaçãoImpacto da COVID-19Departing from the inconclusive results of the scant literature on the COVID-19 impact on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), this paper proposes a novel evaluation model for addressing this issue through managerial perceptions. Over 6000 SMEs responded to twelve rounds of surveys from 2020 to 2021 during the pandemic, allowing to track the evolution over time of the perceived impact of the pandemic on small businesses. A novel entropy-weighted utility function approach is proposed here, followed by artificial neural network regression to map the variables related to the SME’s businesses that most foster the perceived utility of each business criterion during the pandemic. First, weights of business-related criteria were computed using Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), sorting their relative importance – or perceptions - based on information entropy ranks derived from questionnaires collected. Transfer entropy measurements also helped in unveiling the hidden cause-effect relationships among criteria. Second, business utility functions for each criterion were computed using Complex Proportional Assessment based on SWARA weights. Third, neural network regressions were used to explain the managerial perceptions on each business criterion during the pandemic, considering each business variable. Our expected and unexpected results suggest that more resilient SMEs in Brazil are 5-10 years old and operating in the services and construction sectors. Moreover, loan success is the second most impactful criterion, deeply impacting the continuity of economic activity levels, and it is not impacted by any other business criteria. Implications for policymakers and governmental actions are highlighted.Con base en los resultados no concluyentes de la escasa literatura sobre el impacto de la COVID-19 en las pequeñas y medianas empresas (pymes), este artículo propone un nuevo modelo de evaluación para abordar este problema a través de las percepciones gerenciales. Para lograr este objetivo, más de 6.000 pymes respondieron a doce rondas de encuestas de 2020 a 2021, durante la pandemia, lo que permitió monitorear la evolución del impacto percibido de la pandemia en las pequeñas y medianas empresas. Aquí se propone un nuevo enfoque de función de utilidad ponderada por entropía, seguido de una regresión de red neuronal para mapear qué variables relacionadas con el negocio de las pymes impulsan más la utilidad percibida de cada criterio comercial durante la pandemia. Primero, los pesos de los criterios relacionados con el negocio se calcularon utilizando un análisis de relación de evaluación de peso paso a paso (SWARA), clasificando su importancia relativa ‒o percepciones‒ en función de las calificaciones de entropía de la información derivada de los datos recopilados. Las mediciones de entropía de transferencia también ayudaron a revelar las relaciones de causa y efecto entre los criterios. En segundo lugar, las funciones de utilidad comercial para cada criterio se calcularon mediante una evaluación proporcional compleja basada en los pesos SWARA. En tercer lugar, se utilizaron regresiones de redes neuronales para explicar las percepciones gerenciales de cada criterio comercial durante la pandemia a la luz de cada variable comercial. Nuestros resultados, esperados e inesperados, sugieren que las pymes más resilientes en Brasil son aquellas que tienen de 5 a 10 años, que operan en los sectores de servicios y construcción. Además, el éxito del préstamo es el segundo criterio de mayor impacto, que afecta profundamente la continuidad de los niveles de actividad económica; y no se ve afectado por ningún otro criterio comercial. Se destacan las implicaciones para los formuladores de políticas y las acciones gubernamentales.Partindo dos resultados inconclusivos da escassa literatura sobre o impacto do COVID-19 nas pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs), este artigo propõe um novo modelo de avaliação para abordar esse problema por meio de percepções gerenciais. Para atingir esse objetivo, mais de 6.000 PMEs responderam doze rodadas de pesquisas de 2020 a 2021, durante a pandemia, permitindo assim acompanhar a evolução do impacto percebido da pandemia nas pequenas e médias empresas. Uma nova abordagem de função de utilidade ponderada pela entropia é proposta aqui, seguida por regressão de rede neural para mapear quais variáveis relacionadas aos negócios das PMEs impulsionam mais a utilidade percebida de cada critério de negócios durante a pandemia. Primeiro, os pesos dos critérios relacionados aos negócios foram calculados usando a análise de proporção de avaliação de peso passo a passo (SWARA), classificando sua importância relativa - ou percepções - com base nas classificações de entropia de informações derivadas de dados coletados. As medições de entropia de transferência também ajudaram a revelar as relações de causa e efeito entre os critérios. Em segundo lugar, as funções de utilidade comercial para cada critério foram calculadas usando a Avaliação Proporcional Complexa com base nos pesos SWARA. Terceiro, regressões de redes neurais foram usadas para explicar as percepções gerenciais sobre cada critério de negócios durante a pandemia à luz de cada variável de negócios. Nossos resultados, esperados e inesperados, sugerem que as PMEs mais resilientes no Brasil são aquelas com 5 a 10 anos de idade operando nos setores de serviços e construção. Além disso, o sucesso do empréstimo é o segundo critério de maior impacto, impactando profundamente a continuidade dos níveis de atividade econômica; e não é afetado por nenhum outro critério de negócio. Implicações para formuladores de políticas e ações governamentais são destacadas.Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas da Fundação Getulio Vargas2024-02-28info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/9003010.1590/1679-395120220273Cadernos EBAPE.BR; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2024); e2022-0273Cadernos EBAPE.BR; Vol. 22 Núm. 1 (2024); e2022-0273Cadernos EBAPE.BR; v. 22 n. 1 (2024); e2022-02731679-3951reponame:Cadernos EBAPE.BRinstname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVporenghttps://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030/85306https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030/85305https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBarbosa, Luiz Gustavo MedeirosWanke, Peter FernandesAntunes, Jorge Junio MoreiraRocha, Saulo Barroso2024-02-28T19:26:07Zoai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/90030Revistahttps://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebapehttps://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/oaicadernosebape@fgv.br||cadernosebape@fgv.br1679-39511679-3951opendoar:2024-05-13T10:00:35.402089Cadernos EBAPE.BR - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions Impacto de la COVID-19 en las pymes en Brasil y factores impulsores de la percepción gerencial: un nuevo modelo neuronal basado en funciones de utilidad ponderadas por entropía Impacto da COVID-19 nas PMEs no Brasil e drivers de percepção gerencial: um novo modelo neural baseado em funções de utilidade ponderadas pela entropia |
title |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
spellingShingle |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions Barbosa, Luiz Gustavo Medeiros SME Business-related variables Utility functions Information entropy COVID-19 impact Pymes Variables relacionadas con el negocio Funciones de utilidad Entropía de la información Impacto de la COVID-19 PME Variáveis relacionadas ao negócio Funções utilitárias Entropia da informação Impacto da COVID-19 |
title_short |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
title_full |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
title_fullStr |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
title_sort |
Impact of COVID-19 on SMEs in Brazil and managerial perception drivers: a novel neural model based on entropy-weighted utility functions |
author |
Barbosa, Luiz Gustavo Medeiros |
author_facet |
Barbosa, Luiz Gustavo Medeiros Wanke, Peter Fernandes Antunes, Jorge Junio Moreira Rocha, Saulo Barroso |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Wanke, Peter Fernandes Antunes, Jorge Junio Moreira Rocha, Saulo Barroso |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Barbosa, Luiz Gustavo Medeiros Wanke, Peter Fernandes Antunes, Jorge Junio Moreira Rocha, Saulo Barroso |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
SME Business-related variables Utility functions Information entropy COVID-19 impact Pymes Variables relacionadas con el negocio Funciones de utilidad Entropía de la información Impacto de la COVID-19 PME Variáveis relacionadas ao negócio Funções utilitárias Entropia da informação Impacto da COVID-19 |
topic |
SME Business-related variables Utility functions Information entropy COVID-19 impact Pymes Variables relacionadas con el negocio Funciones de utilidad Entropía de la información Impacto de la COVID-19 PME Variáveis relacionadas ao negócio Funções utilitárias Entropia da informação Impacto da COVID-19 |
description |
Departing from the inconclusive results of the scant literature on the COVID-19 impact on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), this paper proposes a novel evaluation model for addressing this issue through managerial perceptions. Over 6000 SMEs responded to twelve rounds of surveys from 2020 to 2021 during the pandemic, allowing to track the evolution over time of the perceived impact of the pandemic on small businesses. A novel entropy-weighted utility function approach is proposed here, followed by artificial neural network regression to map the variables related to the SME’s businesses that most foster the perceived utility of each business criterion during the pandemic. First, weights of business-related criteria were computed using Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA), sorting their relative importance – or perceptions - based on information entropy ranks derived from questionnaires collected. Transfer entropy measurements also helped in unveiling the hidden cause-effect relationships among criteria. Second, business utility functions for each criterion were computed using Complex Proportional Assessment based on SWARA weights. Third, neural network regressions were used to explain the managerial perceptions on each business criterion during the pandemic, considering each business variable. Our expected and unexpected results suggest that more resilient SMEs in Brazil are 5-10 years old and operating in the services and construction sectors. Moreover, loan success is the second most impactful criterion, deeply impacting the continuity of economic activity levels, and it is not impacted by any other business criteria. Implications for policymakers and governmental actions are highlighted. |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024-02-28 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030 10.1590/1679-395120220273 |
url |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1590/1679-395120220273 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por eng |
language |
por eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030/85306 https://periodicos.fgv.br/cadernosebape/article/view/90030/85305 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas da Fundação Getulio Vargas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas da Fundação Getulio Vargas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos EBAPE.BR; Vol. 22 No. 1 (2024); e2022-0273 Cadernos EBAPE.BR; Vol. 22 Núm. 1 (2024); e2022-0273 Cadernos EBAPE.BR; v. 22 n. 1 (2024); e2022-0273 1679-3951 reponame:Cadernos EBAPE.BR instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Cadernos EBAPE.BR |
collection |
Cadernos EBAPE.BR |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos EBAPE.BR - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernosebape@fgv.br||cadernosebape@fgv.br |
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