Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Garcez, João Gabriel Rodrigues
Data de Publicação: 2023
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/34498
Resumo: Eu testo a sustentabilidade da dívida dos países conhecidos pelo acrônimo "PIIGS", ou seja, países que eram considerados a periferia da zona do euro quando a crise da dívida soberana do início dos anos 2010 eclodiu. A estratégia econométrica seguida é a proposta por Bohn (1998) e consiste em estimar a reação do saldo primário às mudanças no nível da dívida pública em relação ao PIB e se encaixa na tradição mais ampla de estimar uma função de reação fiscal. Eu executo um teste de amostra completa, desde os primeiros anos da moeda única até os anos pós-covid, um teste para os anos que antecederam a crise da zona do euro e depois para os anos subsequentes. Os resultados são mistos para diferentes países e amostras. Eu também forneço uma breve revisão da literatura sobre as causas e consequências da crise da zona do euro e sobre a literatura de testes de sustentabilidade da dívida.
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spelling Garcez, João Gabriel RodriguesEscolas::EPGECosta, Carlos Eugênio Ellery Lustosa daGuillén, Osmani Teixeira de CarvalhoIssler, João Victor2023-11-17T17:40:57Z2023-11-17T17:40:57Z2023-03-01https://hdl.handle.net/10438/34498Eu testo a sustentabilidade da dívida dos países conhecidos pelo acrônimo "PIIGS", ou seja, países que eram considerados a periferia da zona do euro quando a crise da dívida soberana do início dos anos 2010 eclodiu. A estratégia econométrica seguida é a proposta por Bohn (1998) e consiste em estimar a reação do saldo primário às mudanças no nível da dívida pública em relação ao PIB e se encaixa na tradição mais ampla de estimar uma função de reação fiscal. Eu executo um teste de amostra completa, desde os primeiros anos da moeda única até os anos pós-covid, um teste para os anos que antecederam a crise da zona do euro e depois para os anos subsequentes. Os resultados são mistos para diferentes países e amostras. Eu também forneço uma breve revisão da literatura sobre as causas e consequências da crise da zona do euro e sobre a literatura de testes de sustentabilidade da dívida.I test the debt sustainability of the countries known by the acronym ”PIIGS”, i.e countries that were considered the periphery of the Eurozone when the early 2010’s sovereign debt crisis hit. The econometric strategy followed is the one proposed by Bohn (1998) and consists of estimating the reaction of the primary balance to changes in the debt-to-GDP level and it fits on the broader tradition of estimating a fiscal-reaction function. I perform a full-sample test, from the early years of the single currency up to the post-covid years, a test for the years in the leading-up to the Eurozone crisis and then for the subsequent years. The results are mixed for different countries and samples. I also provide a brief literature review on both the causes and consequences of the Eurozone crisis and on the literature of debt sustainability tests.engDebt sustainability testFiscal reaction functionEurozone crisisSovereign debt crisisSudden-stopBalance of paymentsEconometriaCrise econômicaComunidade econômica europeiaDívida fiscalBalanço de pagamentos - Modelos econométricosEuro Crisis Redux? 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
title Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
spellingShingle Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
Garcez, João Gabriel Rodrigues
Debt sustainability test
Fiscal reaction function
Eurozone crisis
Sovereign debt crisis
Sudden-stop
Balance of payments
Econometria
Crise econômica
Comunidade econômica europeia
Dívida fiscal
Balanço de pagamentos - Modelos econométricos
title_short Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
title_full Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
title_fullStr Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
title_full_unstemmed Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
title_sort Euro Crisis Redux? Debt Sustainability of the PIIGS Countries
author Garcez, João Gabriel Rodrigues
author_facet Garcez, João Gabriel Rodrigues
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Costa, Carlos Eugênio Ellery Lustosa da
Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Garcez, João Gabriel Rodrigues
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Issler, João Victor
contributor_str_mv Issler, João Victor
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Debt sustainability test
Fiscal reaction function
Eurozone crisis
Sovereign debt crisis
Sudden-stop
Balance of payments
topic Debt sustainability test
Fiscal reaction function
Eurozone crisis
Sovereign debt crisis
Sudden-stop
Balance of payments
Econometria
Crise econômica
Comunidade econômica europeia
Dívida fiscal
Balanço de pagamentos - Modelos econométricos
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Econometria
Crise econômica
Comunidade econômica europeia
Dívida fiscal
Balanço de pagamentos - Modelos econométricos
description Eu testo a sustentabilidade da dívida dos países conhecidos pelo acrônimo "PIIGS", ou seja, países que eram considerados a periferia da zona do euro quando a crise da dívida soberana do início dos anos 2010 eclodiu. A estratégia econométrica seguida é a proposta por Bohn (1998) e consiste em estimar a reação do saldo primário às mudanças no nível da dívida pública em relação ao PIB e se encaixa na tradição mais ampla de estimar uma função de reação fiscal. Eu executo um teste de amostra completa, desde os primeiros anos da moeda única até os anos pós-covid, um teste para os anos que antecederam a crise da zona do euro e depois para os anos subsequentes. Os resultados são mistos para diferentes países e amostras. Eu também forneço uma breve revisão da literatura sobre as causas e consequências da crise da zona do euro e sobre a literatura de testes de sustentabilidade da dívida.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-11-17T17:40:57Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-11-17T17:40:57Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2023-03-01
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/34498
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/34498
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
collection Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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