Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18242 |
Resumo: | The Brazilian aviation went through moments of supply and demand growth in the last decade, which triggered investment and plan decisions aiming at improving the Brazilian airspace control system and airports infrastructure as well as the services offered by airline companies (for instance aviation fuel demand increase). The main objective of this work is to contribute to the creation of a predictive model of takeoffs and landings for the short and medium run. We use the Box-Jenkins model (ARMA), combined with covariates, to predict the amount of takeoffs and landings of commercial aviation in four Brazilian airports: Galeão Airport (Rio de Janeiro), Brasília Airport (Distrito Federal), Guarulhos Airport (São Paulo) and Recife Airport (Pernambuco). We find that the models fit well in the short run, but in the medium run in forecast events such as the recent Brazilian economic crises can damage the predictions. The data analyzed in this work is owned by The Management Center of Air Navegation (CGNA), which is a military unit subordinated to the Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA). Therefore, the predictability of the demand for air traffic will help in the allocation of resources for air traffic management. |
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Silva, Adriano Duarte daEscolas::EMApSouza, Renato RochaCarvalho, Paulo Cezar Pinto deSilva, Ralph dos SantosGuigues, Vincent Gérard Yannick2017-05-12T12:51:45Z2017-05-12T12:51:45Z2016-07-15SILVA, Adriano Duarte da. Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife. Dissertação (Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada) - Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18242The Brazilian aviation went through moments of supply and demand growth in the last decade, which triggered investment and plan decisions aiming at improving the Brazilian airspace control system and airports infrastructure as well as the services offered by airline companies (for instance aviation fuel demand increase). The main objective of this work is to contribute to the creation of a predictive model of takeoffs and landings for the short and medium run. We use the Box-Jenkins model (ARMA), combined with covariates, to predict the amount of takeoffs and landings of commercial aviation in four Brazilian airports: Galeão Airport (Rio de Janeiro), Brasília Airport (Distrito Federal), Guarulhos Airport (São Paulo) and Recife Airport (Pernambuco). We find that the models fit well in the short run, but in the medium run in forecast events such as the recent Brazilian economic crises can damage the predictions. The data analyzed in this work is owned by The Management Center of Air Navegation (CGNA), which is a military unit subordinated to the Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA). Therefore, the predictability of the demand for air traffic will help in the allocation of resources for air traffic management.A aviação brasileira viveu momentos de crescimentos da oferta e da demanda nos últimos 10 anos, o que gerou a necessidade de planejar e investir no aumento da infraestrutura do Sistema de Controle do Espaço Aéreo Brasileiro (SISCEAB), do parque aeroportuário e dos serviços envolvidos na oferta e na demanda da aviação e das companhias aéreas (exemplo a demanda por Querosene de Aviação – QAV). O principal objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para a criação de um modelo preditivo do comportamento das operações de pousos e decolagens dos principais aeroportos brasileiros para o curto e médio prazo. Utilizaremos o modelo Box-Jenkins (ARMA), combinado com covariáveis, para prever a quantidade de operações de pousos e decolagens da aviação comercial em quatro aeroportos brasileiros: Aeroporto do Galeão/RJ, Aeroporto de Brasília/DF, Aeroporto de Guarulhos/SP e Aeroporto de Recife/PE. Verificamos que os modelos se ajustam bem no curto prazo, mas que no médio prazo poderão necessitar de mais dados que podem interferir na quantidade de pousos e decolagens de forma atípica, como, por exemplo, a redução da malha aérea devido à crise econômica brasileira dos últimos 2 anos. Os dados utilizados neste trabalho são pertencentes ao Centro de Gerenciamento da Navegação Aérea (CGNA) que é uma unidade militar subordinada ao Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo Brasileiro (DECEA). Portanto, a previsibilidade da demanda de tráfego aéreo ajudará na alocação de recursos no gerenciamento de tráfego aéreo.porARMAXAviação brasileiraModelo Box-JenkinsPrevisãoTráfego aéreoAdministração de empresasPrevisão com Metodologia de Box-JenkinsControle do tráfego aéreoAnálise de séries temporaisAeronáutica comercialModelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recifeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTEXTDissertacao_Adriano_2016_Completo.pdf.txtDissertacao_Adriano_2016_Completo.pdf.txtExtracted 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InstitucionalPRIhttp://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace-oai/requestopendoar:39742023-11-26T16:08:17Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas 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 |
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
title |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
spellingShingle |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife Silva, Adriano Duarte da ARMAX Aviação brasileira Modelo Box-Jenkins Previsão Tráfego aéreo Administração de empresas Previsão com Metodologia de Box-Jenkins Controle do tráfego aéreo Análise de séries temporais Aeronáutica comercial |
title_short |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
title_full |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
title_fullStr |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
title_sort |
Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife |
author |
Silva, Adriano Duarte da |
author_facet |
Silva, Adriano Duarte da |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EMAp |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Souza, Renato Rocha Carvalho, Paulo Cezar Pinto de Silva, Ralph dos Santos |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Adriano Duarte da |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Guigues, Vincent Gérard Yannick |
contributor_str_mv |
Guigues, Vincent Gérard Yannick |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
ARMAX Aviação brasileira Modelo Box-Jenkins Previsão Tráfego aéreo |
topic |
ARMAX Aviação brasileira Modelo Box-Jenkins Previsão Tráfego aéreo Administração de empresas Previsão com Metodologia de Box-Jenkins Controle do tráfego aéreo Análise de séries temporais Aeronáutica comercial |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Administração de empresas |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Previsão com Metodologia de Box-Jenkins Controle do tráfego aéreo Análise de séries temporais Aeronáutica comercial |
description |
The Brazilian aviation went through moments of supply and demand growth in the last decade, which triggered investment and plan decisions aiming at improving the Brazilian airspace control system and airports infrastructure as well as the services offered by airline companies (for instance aviation fuel demand increase). The main objective of this work is to contribute to the creation of a predictive model of takeoffs and landings for the short and medium run. We use the Box-Jenkins model (ARMA), combined with covariates, to predict the amount of takeoffs and landings of commercial aviation in four Brazilian airports: Galeão Airport (Rio de Janeiro), Brasília Airport (Distrito Federal), Guarulhos Airport (São Paulo) and Recife Airport (Pernambuco). We find that the models fit well in the short run, but in the medium run in forecast events such as the recent Brazilian economic crises can damage the predictions. The data analyzed in this work is owned by The Management Center of Air Navegation (CGNA), which is a military unit subordinated to the Departamento de Controle do Espaço Aéreo (DECEA). Therefore, the predictability of the demand for air traffic will help in the allocation of resources for air traffic management. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2016-07-15 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2017-05-12T12:51:45Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2017-05-12T12:51:45Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SILVA, Adriano Duarte da. Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife. Dissertação (Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada) - Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18242 |
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SILVA, Adriano Duarte da. Modelagem preditiva do comportamento de operações de pista da aviação comercial nos aeroportos internacionais do Galeão, Brasília, Guarulhos e Recife. Dissertação (Mestrado em Matemática Aplicada) - Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2016. |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18242 |
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