Brazil’s China policy: from Cardoso to Bolsonaro

• Autor(a) principal: Bessimo, Thiago Pinagel Barcellos
• Data de Publicação: 2023
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/34405
• topic: Bolsonaro administration; Computational International Relations; Asymmetry theory; Foreign policy analysis; Brazil-China relations; Relações Brasil-China; Análise de política externa; Teoria da assimetria; Relações Internacionais Computacionais; Governo Bolsonaro; Administração pública; Relações internacionais - Estudo de casos; Brasil - Relações econômicas exteriores - China; China - Relações econômicas exteriores - Brasil; Informação assimétrica

This thesis examines Brazilian foreign policy towards China, focusing on the effect of President Jair Bolsonaro's administration. By analysing the historical context and quantitative factors, the study looks into the drivers behind policy variation and their implications for Brazil-China relations. It delves into the presidential terms from Fernando Henrique Cardoso to Bolsonaro, utilising measurements such as voting and speech convergence at the United Nations, visualisations of engagement with China, and analyses of trade and investment data. The study also explores the concept of Asymmetry and considers the asymmetric relationship between Brazil and China using CINC scores. Preliminary findings validate the hypothesis that Bolsonaro's far-right politics and his decision to align Brazil with the United States affected Brazil's foreign policy stance towards China. Still, this shift did not disrupt the broader relationship due to the pre-existing partnership and asymmetry between the two countries. While acknowledging the broader interplay between the Brazilian and Chinese foreign policies, the research finds that variations during Bolsonaro's presidency come primarily from his alignment with the United States and ideological convictions. These insights contribute to a comprehensive understanding of Brazil-China relations, introducing innovative measurements for foreign policy analysis and informing effective data and methods for other middle powers to understand variations in their relationship with China.