An essay on loan forbearance
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656 |
Resumo: | Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes. |
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Mourad, Frederico AbouEscolasTerra, PauloBrito, Giovani Antonio SilvaBarbosa, KlênioSchiozer, Rafael Felipe2019-07-02T14:50:35Z2019-07-02T14:50:35Z2019-05-30https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes.Reestruturação é uma concessão feita por um banco a um tomador de recursos em decorrência de dificuldade financeira. Este trabalho examina porque e quando empréstimos bancários são reestruturados, utilizando uma nova base de dados com mais de 13 milhões de operações de crédito em atraso para empresas não financeiras no Brasil, das quais 1,1 milhão são de operações reestruturadas. Evidências mostram que operações de crédito de maior valor são mais prováveis de serem reestruturadas, e que mais de 80% das reestruturações ocorrem em menos de quatro meses após a operação ficar em atraso por mais de 60 dias (atraso depois do qual o banco não pode mais apropriar juros). Também mostro que quanto maior a dificuldade de utilizar a garantia, maior a probabilidade de a dívida ser reestruturada. Reestruturações anteriores à mesma contraparte também estão positivamente associadas à probabilidade de reestruturação, o que pode ser um indicativo de evergreening. Também encontro evidências de que uma regra regulatória que determina um aumento na provisão de operações de créditos em dia quando o mesmo tomador possui outro crédito em atraso, incentiva bancos a reestruturarem operações em atraso. Por fim, utilizando dados de produtividade de mais de seis mil varas da justiça estadual brasileira, encontro uma fraca evidência de que o congestionamento judicial pode afetar a decisão de reestruturação. Como o evergreening pode causar um problema macroeconômico de alocação de recursos e a reestruturação pode ser utilizada para ocultar perdas, reduzir provisões e gerenciar ganhos e capital, os resultados encontrados possuem implicações para a regulação e para o processo de supervisão.engLoan restructuringDebt renegotiationEvergreeningCollateralCourt enforcementReestruturação de empréstimosRenegociação de dívidasColateralAdministração de empresasDívida - RenegociaçãoEmpréstimo bancárioCrédito bancárioEmpresas - FinançasAn essay on loan forbearanceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALFrederico Mourad - An essay on loan forbearance.pdfFrederico Mourad - An essay on loan 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
An essay on loan forbearance |
title |
An essay on loan forbearance |
spellingShingle |
An essay on loan forbearance Mourad, Frederico Abou Loan restructuring Debt renegotiation Evergreening Collateral Court enforcement Reestruturação de empréstimos Renegociação de dívidas Colateral Administração de empresas Dívida - Renegociação Empréstimo bancário Crédito bancário Empresas - Finanças |
title_short |
An essay on loan forbearance |
title_full |
An essay on loan forbearance |
title_fullStr |
An essay on loan forbearance |
title_full_unstemmed |
An essay on loan forbearance |
title_sort |
An essay on loan forbearance |
author |
Mourad, Frederico Abou |
author_facet |
Mourad, Frederico Abou |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Terra, Paulo Brito, Giovani Antonio Silva Barbosa, Klênio |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Mourad, Frederico Abou |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Schiozer, Rafael Felipe |
contributor_str_mv |
Schiozer, Rafael Felipe |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Loan restructuring Debt renegotiation Evergreening Collateral Court enforcement |
topic |
Loan restructuring Debt renegotiation Evergreening Collateral Court enforcement Reestruturação de empréstimos Renegociação de dívidas Colateral Administração de empresas Dívida - Renegociação Empréstimo bancário Crédito bancário Empresas - Finanças |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Reestruturação de empréstimos Renegociação de dívidas Colateral |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Administração de empresas |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Dívida - Renegociação Empréstimo bancário Crédito bancário Empresas - Finanças |
description |
Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-02T14:50:35Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-02T14:50:35Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-30 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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FGV |
institution |
FGV |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d3d1c2c3-e508-46b4-a964-42169f999261/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d90f2585-b732-4659-b92b-41d5f4e7756e/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/03985583-83db-4ee3-892b-cccf8b54afd7/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/b3c173ec-8005-478e-9977-320d1caaaa16/download |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
6d505a57087c6ce70b97ea2105bc9220 dfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1 3009c8adfc74768886d6556801ecebab 6393b3fbf7111a90529007b161d5a91e |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1813797787883536384 |