An essay on loan forbearance

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Mourad, Frederico Abou
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656
Resumo: Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes.
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spelling Mourad, Frederico AbouEscolasTerra, PauloBrito, Giovani Antonio SilvaBarbosa, KlênioSchiozer, Rafael Felipe2019-07-02T14:50:35Z2019-07-02T14:50:35Z2019-05-30https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes.Reestruturação é uma concessão feita por um banco a um tomador de recursos em decorrência de dificuldade financeira. Este trabalho examina porque e quando empréstimos bancários são reestruturados, utilizando uma nova base de dados com mais de 13 milhões de operações de crédito em atraso para empresas não financeiras no Brasil, das quais 1,1 milhão são de operações reestruturadas. Evidências mostram que operações de crédito de maior valor são mais prováveis de serem reestruturadas, e que mais de 80% das reestruturações ocorrem em menos de quatro meses após a operação ficar em atraso por mais de 60 dias (atraso depois do qual o banco não pode mais apropriar juros). Também mostro que quanto maior a dificuldade de utilizar a garantia, maior a probabilidade de a dívida ser reestruturada. Reestruturações anteriores à mesma contraparte também estão positivamente associadas à probabilidade de reestruturação, o que pode ser um indicativo de evergreening. Também encontro evidências de que uma regra regulatória que determina um aumento na provisão de operações de créditos em dia quando o mesmo tomador possui outro crédito em atraso, incentiva bancos a reestruturarem operações em atraso. Por fim, utilizando dados de produtividade de mais de seis mil varas da justiça estadual brasileira, encontro uma fraca evidência de que o congestionamento judicial pode afetar a decisão de reestruturação. Como o evergreening pode causar um problema macroeconômico de alocação de recursos e a reestruturação pode ser utilizada para ocultar perdas, reduzir provisões e gerenciar ganhos e capital, os resultados encontrados possuem implicações para a regulação e para o processo de supervisão.engLoan restructuringDebt renegotiationEvergreeningCollateralCourt enforcementReestruturação de empréstimosRenegociação de dívidasColateralAdministração de empresasDívida - RenegociaçãoEmpréstimo bancárioCrédito bancárioEmpresas - FinançasAn essay on loan forbearanceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALFrederico Mourad - An essay on loan forbearance.pdfFrederico Mourad - An essay on loan 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv An essay on loan forbearance
title An essay on loan forbearance
spellingShingle An essay on loan forbearance
Mourad, Frederico Abou
Loan restructuring
Debt renegotiation
Evergreening
Collateral
Court enforcement
Reestruturação de empréstimos
Renegociação de dívidas
Colateral
Administração de empresas
Dívida - Renegociação
Empréstimo bancário
Crédito bancário
Empresas - Finanças
title_short An essay on loan forbearance
title_full An essay on loan forbearance
title_fullStr An essay on loan forbearance
title_full_unstemmed An essay on loan forbearance
title_sort An essay on loan forbearance
author Mourad, Frederico Abou
author_facet Mourad, Frederico Abou
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Terra, Paulo
Brito, Giovani Antonio Silva
Barbosa, Klênio
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Mourad, Frederico Abou
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Schiozer, Rafael Felipe
contributor_str_mv Schiozer, Rafael Felipe
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Loan restructuring
Debt renegotiation
Evergreening
Collateral
Court enforcement
topic Loan restructuring
Debt renegotiation
Evergreening
Collateral
Court enforcement
Reestruturação de empréstimos
Renegociação de dívidas
Colateral
Administração de empresas
Dívida - Renegociação
Empréstimo bancário
Crédito bancário
Empresas - Finanças
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Reestruturação de empréstimos
Renegociação de dívidas
Colateral
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Administração de empresas
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Dívida - Renegociação
Empréstimo bancário
Crédito bancário
Empresas - Finanças
description Forbearance is a concession granted by a lending bank to a borrower for reasons of financial difficulty. This thesis examines why and when delinquent bank loans are forborne, using a novel dataset with over 13 million delinquent loans to non-financial firms in Brazil, from which 1.1 million are forborne. My evidence shows that larger loans are more likely to be forborne, and more than 80% of forbearance events occur in less than four months after a loan becomes more than 60 days past due (after which the bank may no longer accrue interest). I also show that the greater the difficulty to seize collateral, the largest the probability of forbearance. Previous forbearances to a borrower are also positively associated to the probability of forbearance, which may be an indicative of loan evergreening. I also find that a regulatory rule that forces banks to increase provisions of non-delinquent loans when the same borrower also has a delinquent loan creates incentives for banks to forbear delinquent loans. Finally, using productivity data of more than six thousand state judicial courts in Brazil, I find a weak evidence that court congestion may affect the decision of forbearance. Because loan evergreening may pose macroeconomic resource allocation problems and forbearance may be used to conceal loan losses, decrease provisions and manage earnings and capital, my findings have implications for the design of regulation and supervisory processes.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2019-07-02T14:50:35Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2019-07-02T14:50:35Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2019-05-30
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
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url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27656
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language eng
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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