Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31219 |
Resumo: | The automotive industry has developed its business model centered on vehicles powered by internal combustion (MCI). From the 1960s onwards, with the growth of movements in favor of the control of pollutant emissions, new demands for safer vehicles and with lower levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emerged. Since then, the industry resumes the development of electric vehicles (EV). But only at the beginning of the 21st century is there a consistent process of change and restructuring in the automotive sector, which drives global transformations in this industry. Opportunities arise for the transition from an internal combustion-powered vehicle (MCI) to an electric one. The objective of this study is to identify uncertainties and possible scenarios with a horizon over the next 20 years of the current Brazilian automotive industry (IAB). The analysis considers the transition from combustion engines to an electrified future. It was decided to use the Schwartz method: critical uncertainties were addressed and analyzed and, based on the data obtained, prospective scenarios were constructed. |
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D’Andrea Mateus, José CarlosEscolas::EAESPOliveira Junior, Moacir de MirandaGelis Filho, AntonioFigueiredo Junior, Lázaro dePrado Junior, Servio Tulio2021-10-18T16:27:48Z2021-10-18T16:27:48Z2021-09-30https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31219The automotive industry has developed its business model centered on vehicles powered by internal combustion (MCI). From the 1960s onwards, with the growth of movements in favor of the control of pollutant emissions, new demands for safer vehicles and with lower levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emerged. Since then, the industry resumes the development of electric vehicles (EV). But only at the beginning of the 21st century is there a consistent process of change and restructuring in the automotive sector, which drives global transformations in this industry. Opportunities arise for the transition from an internal combustion-powered vehicle (MCI) to an electric one. The objective of this study is to identify uncertainties and possible scenarios with a horizon over the next 20 years of the current Brazilian automotive industry (IAB). The analysis considers the transition from combustion engines to an electrified future. It was decided to use the Schwartz method: critical uncertainties were addressed and analyzed and, based on the data obtained, prospective scenarios were constructed.A indústria automotiva desenvolveu seu modelo de negócio centrado nos veículos movidos por combustão interna (MCI). A partir dos anos 1960, com o crescimento de movimentos em prol do controle das emissões de poluentes, surgem novas demandas por veículos mais seguros e com menor nível de emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). A partir de então, a indústria retoma o desenvolvimento dos veículos elétricos (VE). Mas somente no início do século XXI é que ocorre um processo consistente de mudança e reestruturação do setor automobilístico, que impulsiona as transformações globais nessa indústria. Surgem oportunidades para a transição do veículo movido a combustão interna (MCI) para o elétrico. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar incertezas e possíveis cenários com horizonte nos próximos 20 anos da atual indústria automotiva brasileira (IAB). A análise considera a transição dos motores a combustão para um futuro eletrificado. Decidiu-se pela utilização do método de Schwartz: foram abordadas e analisadas incertezas críticas e, com base nos dados obtidos, construídos os cenários prospectivos. Palavras-chaves: veículo elétrico (VE), motor a combustão interna (MCI), indústria automobilística brasileira (IAB), gases efeito estufa (GEE), cenários.porElectric vehicle (EV)Internal combustion engine (MCI)Brazilian automobile industry (IAB)Greenhouse gases (GHG)ScenariosVeículo elétrico (VE)Motor a combustão interna (MCI)Indústria automobilística brasileira (IAB)Gases efeito estufa (GEE)CenáriosAdministração de empresasIndústria automobilística - BrasilVeículos elétricosGases estufaPrevisão na administraçãoIncerteza (Economia)Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas 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|
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
title |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
spellingShingle |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos D’Andrea Mateus, José Carlos Electric vehicle (EV) Internal combustion engine (MCI) Brazilian automobile industry (IAB) Greenhouse gases (GHG) Scenarios Veículo elétrico (VE) Motor a combustão interna (MCI) Indústria automobilística brasileira (IAB) Gases efeito estufa (GEE) Cenários Administração de empresas Indústria automobilística - Brasil Veículos elétricos Gases estufa Previsão na administração Incerteza (Economia) |
title_short |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
title_full |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
title_fullStr |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
title_sort |
Uma aplicação da técnica de cenários para a indústria de autopeças de veículos de passageiros e comerciais leves movidos por motor a combustão interna no Brasil: potenciais cenários para a indústria automotiva frente à possível adoção dos veículos elétricos |
author |
D’Andrea Mateus, José Carlos |
author_facet |
D’Andrea Mateus, José Carlos |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EAESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Oliveira Junior, Moacir de Miranda Gelis Filho, Antonio Figueiredo Junior, Lázaro de |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
D’Andrea Mateus, José Carlos |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Prado Junior, Servio Tulio |
contributor_str_mv |
Prado Junior, Servio Tulio |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Electric vehicle (EV) Internal combustion engine (MCI) Brazilian automobile industry (IAB) Greenhouse gases (GHG) Scenarios |
topic |
Electric vehicle (EV) Internal combustion engine (MCI) Brazilian automobile industry (IAB) Greenhouse gases (GHG) Scenarios Veículo elétrico (VE) Motor a combustão interna (MCI) Indústria automobilística brasileira (IAB) Gases efeito estufa (GEE) Cenários Administração de empresas Indústria automobilística - Brasil Veículos elétricos Gases estufa Previsão na administração Incerteza (Economia) |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Veículo elétrico (VE) Motor a combustão interna (MCI) Indústria automobilística brasileira (IAB) Gases efeito estufa (GEE) Cenários |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Administração de empresas |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Indústria automobilística - Brasil Veículos elétricos Gases estufa Previsão na administração Incerteza (Economia) |
description |
The automotive industry has developed its business model centered on vehicles powered by internal combustion (MCI). From the 1960s onwards, with the growth of movements in favor of the control of pollutant emissions, new demands for safer vehicles and with lower levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emerged. Since then, the industry resumes the development of electric vehicles (EV). But only at the beginning of the 21st century is there a consistent process of change and restructuring in the automotive sector, which drives global transformations in this industry. Opportunities arise for the transition from an internal combustion-powered vehicle (MCI) to an electric one. The objective of this study is to identify uncertainties and possible scenarios with a horizon over the next 20 years of the current Brazilian automotive industry (IAB). The analysis considers the transition from combustion engines to an electrified future. It was decided to use the Schwartz method: critical uncertainties were addressed and analyzed and, based on the data obtained, prospective scenarios were constructed. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-18T16:27:48Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-18T16:27:48Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-30 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31219 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31219 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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1810023660795199488 |