Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27455 |
Resumo: | Recent works for mature markets on covered interest parity suggest that deviations are mean reverting but persistent particularly after 2008 crisis (Du et al., 2018). Our study aims to contribute to the literature by modelling the deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) of an important emerging market economy. We focus on Brazilian data given the importance of its derivative market. One of strengths of our study is the use of an agnostic approach based on automatic model selection technique robust to structural change, the Autometrics algorithm (Hendry and Doornik, 2014), to unveil possible determinants of CIP deviations from a wide information data set. We show that CIP deviations are highly sensitive to changes in Federal government total debt, level of reserves, in ation and degree of trade openness. We also document the existence of instabilities in the model due to nancial and political turmoils. These conclusions come up from the intercept correction performed by the algorithm and can be seen as byproduct of our method- ology. Finally, we collect evidence that, even after corrected for fundamentals and instability points, CIP deviations still have persistence, suggesting that market frictions play an important role in the dynamics of CIP deviations. |
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Costa, Marisa Gomes daMarçal, Emerson FernandesEscolas::EESP2019-05-23T13:31:06Z2019-05-23T13:31:06Z2019-05TD 503https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27455Recent works for mature markets on covered interest parity suggest that deviations are mean reverting but persistent particularly after 2008 crisis (Du et al., 2018). Our study aims to contribute to the literature by modelling the deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) of an important emerging market economy. We focus on Brazilian data given the importance of its derivative market. One of strengths of our study is the use of an agnostic approach based on automatic model selection technique robust to structural change, the Autometrics algorithm (Hendry and Doornik, 2014), to unveil possible determinants of CIP deviations from a wide information data set. We show that CIP deviations are highly sensitive to changes in Federal government total debt, level of reserves, in ation and degree of trade openness. We also document the existence of instabilities in the model due to nancial and political turmoils. These conclusions come up from the intercept correction performed by the algorithm and can be seen as byproduct of our method- ology. Finally, we collect evidence that, even after corrected for fundamentals and instability points, CIP deviations still have persistence, suggesting that market frictions play an important role in the dynamics of CIP deviations.engFGV EESP - Textos para Discussão; TD 503Automatic model selectionCovered interest rate parityCountry riskExchange rateInterest rateEconomiaTaxas de jurosRisco (Economia)Taxas de câmbioDeviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictionsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALTD 503 - CEMAP 14 CEQEF 50CC.pdfTD 503 - CEMAP 14 CEQEF 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
title |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
spellingShingle |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions Costa, Marisa Gomes da Automatic model selection Covered interest rate parity Country risk Exchange rate Interest rate Economia Taxas de juros Risco (Economia) Taxas de câmbio |
title_short |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
title_full |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
title_fullStr |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
title_sort |
Deviations from covered interest parity: the role played by fundamentals, financial and political turmoils and market frictions |
author |
Costa, Marisa Gomes da |
author_facet |
Costa, Marisa Gomes da Marçal, Emerson Fernandes |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Costa, Marisa Gomes da Marçal, Emerson Fernandes |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Automatic model selection Covered interest rate parity Country risk Exchange rate Interest rate |
topic |
Automatic model selection Covered interest rate parity Country risk Exchange rate Interest rate Economia Taxas de juros Risco (Economia) Taxas de câmbio |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Taxas de juros Risco (Economia) Taxas de câmbio |
description |
Recent works for mature markets on covered interest parity suggest that deviations are mean reverting but persistent particularly after 2008 crisis (Du et al., 2018). Our study aims to contribute to the literature by modelling the deviations from covered interest rate parity (CIP) of an important emerging market economy. We focus on Brazilian data given the importance of its derivative market. One of strengths of our study is the use of an agnostic approach based on automatic model selection technique robust to structural change, the Autometrics algorithm (Hendry and Doornik, 2014), to unveil possible determinants of CIP deviations from a wide information data set. We show that CIP deviations are highly sensitive to changes in Federal government total debt, level of reserves, in ation and degree of trade openness. We also document the existence of instabilities in the model due to nancial and political turmoils. These conclusions come up from the intercept correction performed by the algorithm and can be seen as byproduct of our method- ology. Finally, we collect evidence that, even after corrected for fundamentals and instability points, CIP deviations still have persistence, suggesting that market frictions play an important role in the dynamics of CIP deviations. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-23T13:31:06Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2019-05-23T13:31:06Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-05 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27455 |
dc.identifier.sici.none.fl_str_mv |
TD 503 |
identifier_str_mv |
TD 503 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27455 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV EESP - Textos para Discussão; TD 503 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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