Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Chaves, Rodrigo Vasconcelos
Data de Publicação: 2011
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8445
Resumo: Este trabalho busca investigar o processo de formação de expectativas para a Taxa de Câmbio Nominal analisando comportamento das projeções para a Taxa de Câmbio para 1, 3, 6 e 12 meses a frente e a racionalidade destas previsões. Os resultados encontrados mostram que as expectativas de taxa de câmbio coletadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil preveem melhor o câmbio futuro do que as taxas futuras negociadas no mercado. O comportamento das expectativas tende a ser reversível e de rápida convergência para a taxa de equilíbrio de longo prazo e dá um peso significativo para as expectativas de taxa de cambio defasadas. No entanto, a hipótese das expectativas serem racionais foi rejeitada.
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spelling Chaves, Rodrigo VasconcelosEscolas::EPGEFGVBonomo, Marco Antônio CesarGaglianone, Wagner PiazzaJanot, Márcio Magalhães2011-07-13T12:10:47Z2011-07-13T12:10:47Z2011-05-30CHAVES, Rodrigo Vasconcelos. Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no brasil: uma avaliacao empirica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2011.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8445Este trabalho busca investigar o processo de formação de expectativas para a Taxa de Câmbio Nominal analisando comportamento das projeções para a Taxa de Câmbio para 1, 3, 6 e 12 meses a frente e a racionalidade destas previsões. Os resultados encontrados mostram que as expectativas de taxa de câmbio coletadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil preveem melhor o câmbio futuro do que as taxas futuras negociadas no mercado. O comportamento das expectativas tende a ser reversível e de rápida convergência para a taxa de equilíbrio de longo prazo e dá um peso significativo para as expectativas de taxa de cambio defasadas. No entanto, a hipótese das expectativas serem racionais foi rejeitada.This work investigates the process of formation of expectations for the Nominal Exchange Rate Forecasts analyzing the behavior of forecasts exchange rates for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead and the rationality of these forecasts. The results show that the exchange rate expectations collected by the Central Bank of Brazil is a better predict of future exchange rates than those traded in the future. The behavior of expectations tends to be reversible and with rapid convergence rate for long-run equilibrium and gives significant weight to the expectations of exchange rate lagged. However, the hypothesis of rational expectations are rejected.porTaxa de câmbioExpectativasExchange rateExpectationsEconomiaTaxas de câmbio - Modelos econométricosExpectativas racionais (Teoria econômica)Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empíricainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINALDissertacao-RodrigoChaves 2011.pdfDissertacao-RodrigoChaves 2011.pdfPDFapplication/pdf297510https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/095b18a0-7e08-43c5-8045-8ae191034ff5/downloada830cc7aeb1a0c449053f3f68934cd9aMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84712https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/e05e3590-23b9-4db9-b0df-c70b7b9ec53c/download4dea6f7333914d9740702a2deb2db217MD52TEXTDissertacao-RodrigoChaves 2011.pdf.txtDissertacao-RodrigoChaves 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
title Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
spellingShingle Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
Chaves, Rodrigo Vasconcelos
Taxa de câmbio
Expectativas
Exchange rate
Expectations
Economia
Taxas de câmbio - Modelos econométricos
Expectativas racionais (Teoria econômica)
title_short Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
title_full Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
title_fullStr Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
title_full_unstemmed Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
title_sort Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no Brasil: uma avaliação empírica
author Chaves, Rodrigo Vasconcelos
author_facet Chaves, Rodrigo Vasconcelos
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar
Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Chaves, Rodrigo Vasconcelos
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Janot, Márcio Magalhães
contributor_str_mv Janot, Márcio Magalhães
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Taxa de câmbio
Expectativas
topic Taxa de câmbio
Expectativas
Exchange rate
Expectations
Economia
Taxas de câmbio - Modelos econométricos
Expectativas racionais (Teoria econômica)
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Exchange rate
Expectations
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Taxas de câmbio - Modelos econométricos
Expectativas racionais (Teoria econômica)
description Este trabalho busca investigar o processo de formação de expectativas para a Taxa de Câmbio Nominal analisando comportamento das projeções para a Taxa de Câmbio para 1, 3, 6 e 12 meses a frente e a racionalidade destas previsões. Os resultados encontrados mostram que as expectativas de taxa de câmbio coletadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil preveem melhor o câmbio futuro do que as taxas futuras negociadas no mercado. O comportamento das expectativas tende a ser reversível e de rápida convergência para a taxa de equilíbrio de longo prazo e dá um peso significativo para as expectativas de taxa de cambio defasadas. No entanto, a hipótese das expectativas serem racionais foi rejeitada.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2011-07-13T12:10:47Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2011-07-13T12:10:47Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2011-05-30
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv CHAVES, Rodrigo Vasconcelos. Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no brasil: uma avaliacao empirica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2011.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8445
identifier_str_mv CHAVES, Rodrigo Vasconcelos. Modelos alternativos de expectativas da taxa de cambio no brasil: uma avaliacao empirica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2011.
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8445
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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