Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2003 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/767 |
Resumo: | The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions. |
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Camarero, MariamFlôres Junior, Renato GalvãoTamarit, Cecilio R.Escolas::EPGEFGV2008-05-13T15:33:29Z2008-05-13T15:33:29Z2003-10-280104-8910http://hdl.handle.net/10438/767The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions.engEscola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGVEnsaios Econômicos;510ConvergenceMultivariate testsUnit rootsPer capita incomeMERCOSUREconomiaAnálise multivariadaEconomiaOutput convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidenceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINAL1463.pdfapplication/pdf382480https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/35364a65-82f5-4f87-a4be-275e828bbc3e/downloadb30cf72c48d071bf6e14dfc73c09b4eeMD51TEXT1463.pdf.txt1463.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain140942https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/9a605385-02c9-4374-8a7d-6bd05bcfb210/download5bf70d4b86963576957f221ba546f626MD56THUMBNAIL1463.pdf.jpg1463.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg3317https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/531a3b0c-5359-41f3-a2cd-5661e127bcef/download33875f0b45d663c39e84672df3a15a92MD5710438/7672023-11-09 20:49:00.674open.accessoai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/767https://repositorio.fgv.brRepositório InstitucionalPRIhttp://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace-oai/requestopendoar:39742023-11-09T20:49Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)false |
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
title |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
spellingShingle |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence Camarero, Mariam Convergence Multivariate tests Unit roots Per capita income MERCOSUR Economia Análise multivariada Economia |
title_short |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
title_full |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
title_fullStr |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
title_sort |
Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence |
author |
Camarero, Mariam |
author_facet |
Camarero, Mariam Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão Tamarit, Cecilio R. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão Tamarit, Cecilio R. |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Camarero, Mariam Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão Tamarit, Cecilio R. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Convergence |
topic |
Convergence Multivariate tests Unit roots Per capita income MERCOSUR Economia Análise multivariada Economia |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Multivariate tests Unit roots Per capita income |
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
MERCOSUR |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Análise multivariada Economia |
description |
The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions. |
publishDate |
2003 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2003-10-28 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2008-05-13T15:33:29Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2008-05-13T15:33:29Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/767 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
0104-8910 |
identifier_str_mv |
0104-8910 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/767 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
Ensaios Econômicos;510 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV |
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