Exploring counterfactual antecedents to reduce criminality

• Autor(a) principal: Raimundo, Marcos Medeiros
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Relatório
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/31626
• topic: Violência; Matemática; Tecnologia; Inteligência artificial; Criminalidade urbana; Violência; Segurança pública

This research project developed a series of methodologies to help identifying urban, socioeconomic and space-temporal factors that lead to crime. Our research had four main pillars: (1) Hotspot analysis was used to investigate possible ways to define what is a crime hotspot, in other words, how to define the size and area of geographical area to designate resources to reduce criminality; (2) Space-temporal analysis was used to understand the space and time correlations on crime; (3) Socioeconomic analysis was used to identify the main social and economical variables that affect crime; (4) Counterfactual analysis was used to understand which variables we should change on which magnitude we should change it to reduce significantly the crime in a certain location. All of these analysis where integrated in distinct visualization tools to help users to understand and have insights about crime in order to plan actions to reduce criminality.