Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562 |
Resumo: | The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve. |
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Cabral, Rodolfo ArrudaEscolas::EESPGonçalves, Carlos Eduardo SoaresMattos, EnlinsonGuimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos2014-03-26T13:12:09Z2014-03-26T13:12:09Z2014-02-25CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve.Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o modo que a comunicação do Banco Central do Brasil (comunicados das decisões de política monetária, atas do COPOM e relatórios de inflação) pode impactar os mercados - a reação do mercado financeiro às notícias da autoridade monetária. Nesse sentido, atenta-se para a diferença entre o que se espera que seja a informação e o que de fato a informação é: o choque de notícias. A partir dessa diferença entre a expectativa e o realizado, procura-se analisar o quanto tal desvio é relevante para as variações nos preços de alguns ativos. Encontra-se evidências de que os comunicados das decisões parecem ser bastante eficientes enquanto informantes do futuro da política monetária, o que não acontece para as atas. Ao analisarmos a interação entre comunicados e atas a partir de 2003, vemos que há uma complementaridade dos dois veículos, com o choque de notícias dos comunicados tendo mais impactos sobre maturidades de juros mais curtas e o choque das atas sobre os vértices mais longos. Por fim, as projeções de inflação dos relatórios parecem ser relevantes para movimentar a curva de juros futuros em diversos pontos.porChoque de notíciasEconomiaBanco Central do BrasilPolítica monetáriaComunicados à imprensaDivulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais)Mercado financeiroOs impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notíciasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALdissertação.rodolfo.pdfdissertação.rodolfo.pdfapplication/pdf1787985https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/645a83f5-c17a-45bd-b9a3-76d1816b4d77/download0f864ae38447c05f5db543fa8901f361MD53LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
title |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
spellingShingle |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda Choque de notícias Economia Banco Central do Brasil Política monetária Comunicados à imprensa Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais) Mercado financeiro |
title_short |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
title_full |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
title_fullStr |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
title_full_unstemmed |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
title_sort |
Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias |
author |
Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda |
author_facet |
Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo Soares Mattos, Enlinson |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos |
contributor_str_mv |
Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Choque de notícias |
topic |
Choque de notícias Economia Banco Central do Brasil Política monetária Comunicados à imprensa Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais) Mercado financeiro |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Banco Central do Brasil Política monetária Comunicados à imprensa Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais) Mercado financeiro |
description |
The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2014-03-26T13:12:09Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2014-03-26T13:12:09Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2014-02-25 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562 |
identifier_str_mv |
CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014. |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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