Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda
Data de Publicação: 2014
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562
Resumo: The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve.
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spelling Cabral, Rodolfo ArrudaEscolas::EESPGonçalves, Carlos Eduardo SoaresMattos, EnlinsonGuimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos2014-03-26T13:12:09Z2014-03-26T13:12:09Z2014-02-25CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve.Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o modo que a comunicação do Banco Central do Brasil (comunicados das decisões de política monetária, atas do COPOM e relatórios de inflação) pode impactar os mercados - a reação do mercado financeiro às notícias da autoridade monetária. Nesse sentido, atenta-se para a diferença entre o que se espera que seja a informação e o que de fato a informação é: o choque de notícias. A partir dessa diferença entre a expectativa e o realizado, procura-se analisar o quanto tal desvio é relevante para as variações nos preços de alguns ativos. Encontra-se evidências de que os comunicados das decisões parecem ser bastante eficientes enquanto informantes do futuro da política monetária, o que não acontece para as atas. Ao analisarmos a interação entre comunicados e atas a partir de 2003, vemos que há uma complementaridade dos dois veículos, com o choque de notícias dos comunicados tendo mais impactos sobre maturidades de juros mais curtas e o choque das atas sobre os vértices mais longos. Por fim, as projeções de inflação dos relatórios parecem ser relevantes para movimentar a curva de juros futuros em diversos pontos.porChoque de notíciasEconomiaBanco Central do BrasilPolítica monetáriaComunicados à imprensaDivulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais)Mercado financeiroOs impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notíciasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALdissertação.rodolfo.pdfdissertação.rodolfo.pdfapplication/pdf1787985https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/645a83f5-c17a-45bd-b9a3-76d1816b4d77/download0f864ae38447c05f5db543fa8901f361MD53LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
title Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
spellingShingle Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda
Choque de notícias
Economia
Banco Central do Brasil
Política monetária
Comunicados à imprensa
Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais)
Mercado financeiro
title_short Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
title_full Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
title_fullStr Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
title_full_unstemmed Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
title_sort Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias
author Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda
author_facet Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Gonçalves, Carlos Eduardo Soares
Mattos, Enlinson
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Cabral, Rodolfo Arruda
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
contributor_str_mv Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Choque de notícias
topic Choque de notícias
Economia
Banco Central do Brasil
Política monetária
Comunicados à imprensa
Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais)
Mercado financeiro
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Banco Central do Brasil
Política monetária
Comunicados à imprensa
Divulgação de informações (Sociedades comerciais)
Mercado financeiro
description The aim of this work is to verify how the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil (statements issued by the interest-rate setting committee, central bank minutes and inflation reports) may affect markets - the reaction of financial markets to news from the monetary authority. In that way, we focus on the difference between what the information is expected be and what the information actually is: the news shock. From the difference between expected and realized, we evaluate how much of this deviation is relevant in terms of price fluctuation for a range of assets. We find evidence that the COPOM statements seem to be very informative about future monetary policy, while this is not true for central bank minutes. When we analyze the interaction between statements and minutes since 2003 we see that there is a complementarity between them, with the news shock of the statements having more impact over short maturities and the minutes’ shock more impact over long maturities Finally, the inflation forecasts from the inflation reports seem to have meaningful effects on the yield curve.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2014-03-26T13:12:09Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2014-03-26T13:12:09Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2014-02-25
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562
identifier_str_mv CABRAL, Rodolfo Arruda. Os impactos da comunicação do Banco Central no mercado brasileiro: o choque de notícias. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2014.
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11562
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