Strategic manipulation of empirical tests
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2006 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12640 |
Resumo: | Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted. |
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Sandroni, AlvaroEscolas::EPGEFGV2014-12-02T10:24:15Z2014-12-02T10:24:15Z2006-06-01http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12640Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted.engEscola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGVSeminários de pesquisa econômica da EPGE;Todo cuidado foi dispensado para respeitar os direitos autorais deste trabalho. Entretanto, caso esta obra aqui depositada seja protegida por direitos autorais externos a esta instituição, contamos com a compreensão do autor e solicitamos que o mesmo faça contato através do Fale Conosco para que possamos tomar as providências cabíveisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessStrategic manipulation of empirical testsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleEconomiaProbabilidades - Modelos econométricosIncerteza - Modelos econométricosreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINAL000385131.pdf000385131.pdfapplication/pdf406417https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/5452185a-1b47-42f1-bb50-eda7e93ec87c/downloadc097b4824b9526c32a20de78ed48cd45MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/cb935152-f2bd-4a24-8159-6cd665f8605d/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXT000385131.pdf.txt000385131.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
title |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
spellingShingle |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests Sandroni, Alvaro Economia Probabilidades - Modelos econométricos Incerteza - Modelos econométricos |
title_short |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
title_full |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
title_fullStr |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
title_sort |
Strategic manipulation of empirical tests |
author |
Sandroni, Alvaro |
author_facet |
Sandroni, Alvaro |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Sandroni, Alvaro |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
topic |
Economia Probabilidades - Modelos econométricos Incerteza - Modelos econométricos |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Probabilidades - Modelos econométricos Incerteza - Modelos econométricos |
description |
Theories can be produced by individuals seeking a good reputation of knowledge. Hence, a significant question is how to test theories anticipating that they might have been produced by (potentially uninformed) experts who prefer their theories not to be rejected. If a theory that predicts exactly like the data generating process is not rejected with high probability then the test is said to not reject the truth. On the other hand, if a false expert, with no knowledge over the data generating process, can strategically select theories that will not be rejected then the test can be ignorantly passed. These tests have limited use because they cannot feasibly dismiss completely uninformed experts. Many tests proposed in the literature (e.g., calibration tests) can be ignorantly passed. Dekel and Feinberg (2006) introduced a class of tests that seemingly have some power of dismissing uninformed experts. We show that some tests from their class can also be ignorantly passed. One of those tests, however, does not reject the truth and cannot be ignorantly passed. Thus, this empirical test can dismiss false experts.We also show that a false reputation of knowledge can be strategically sustained for an arbitrary, but given, number of periods, no matted which test is used (provided that it does not reject the truth). However, false experts can be discredited, even with bounded data sets, if the domain of permissible theories is mildly restricted. |
publishDate |
2006 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2006-06-01 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2014-12-02T10:24:15Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2014-12-02T10:24:15Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12640 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12640 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Seminários de pesquisa econômica da EPGE; |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV |
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