The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10333 |
Resumo: | Rising home prices in Brazil have sparked debate on a possible housing bubble. In light of the credit and housing crisis in the United States, it is fair to question whether or not Brazil’s situation is analogous. Looking at both quantitative and fundamental arguments, we examine the context of the Brazilian housing boom and question its sustainability in the near term. First, home prices tested with basic rental yields and affordability ratios as well an imputed rent model to assess their relative to equilibrium levels. Second, we examine some fundamental factors affecting housing prices – supply and demand, credit and regulation, cultural factors – to find evidence justifying the rising home prices. From these observations, we attempt to draw rational inferences on the likely near future evolution of the Brazilian housing market. While data suggests that home prices are overvalued in comparison to rent levels, there is an evidence of legitimate new housing demand in the rising middle class. A more serious risk may lie in the credit markets in that the Brazilian consumer is already highly leveraged. Nevertheless, we find no evidence suggesting more than a temporary slowdown or correction of home prices. |
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Lapeyronie, Octave Serge Christian MarieEscolas::EAESPEid Júnior, WilliamRochman, Ricardo RatnerAndreassi, Tales2012-12-27T16:32:05Z2012-12-27T16:32:05Z2012-12-11LAPEYRONIE, Octave Serge Christian Marie. The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Gestão Internacional) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2012.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10333Rising home prices in Brazil have sparked debate on a possible housing bubble. In light of the credit and housing crisis in the United States, it is fair to question whether or not Brazil’s situation is analogous. Looking at both quantitative and fundamental arguments, we examine the context of the Brazilian housing boom and question its sustainability in the near term. First, home prices tested with basic rental yields and affordability ratios as well an imputed rent model to assess their relative to equilibrium levels. Second, we examine some fundamental factors affecting housing prices – supply and demand, credit and regulation, cultural factors – to find evidence justifying the rising home prices. From these observations, we attempt to draw rational inferences on the likely near future evolution of the Brazilian housing market. While data suggests that home prices are overvalued in comparison to rent levels, there is an evidence of legitimate new housing demand in the rising middle class. A more serious risk may lie in the credit markets in that the Brazilian consumer is already highly leveraged. Nevertheless, we find no evidence suggesting more than a temporary slowdown or correction of home prices.A forte alta dos imóveis no Brasil nos últimos anos iniciou um debate sobre a possível existência de uma bolha especulativa. Dada a recente crise do crédito nos Estados Unidos, é factível questionar se a situação atual no Brasil pode ser comparada à crise americana. Considerando argumentos quantitativos e fundamentais, examina-se o contexto imobiliário brasileiro e questiona-se a sustentabilidade em um futuro próximo. Primeiramente, analisou-se a taxa de aluguel e o nível de acesso aos imóveis e também utilizou-se um modelo do custo real para ver se o mercado está em equilíbrio o não. Depois examinou-se alguns fatores fundamentais que afetam o preço dos imóveis – oferta e demanda, crédito e regulação, fatores culturais – para encontrar evidências que justificam o aumento dos preços dos imóveis. A partir dessas observações tentou-se chegar a uma conclusão sobre a evolução dos preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Enquanto os dados sugerem que os preços dos imóveis estão supervalorizados em comparação ao preço dos aluguéis, há evidências de uma legítima demanda por novos imóveis na emergente classe média brasileira. Um risco maior pode estar no mercado de crédito, altamente alavancado em relação ao consumidor brasileiro. No entanto, não se encontrou evidências que sugerem mais do que uma temporária estabilização ou correção no preço dos imóveis.engBolhaEspeculativoImóveisPreço de imóveisCiência políticaCompra e vendaImóveis - PreçosMercado imobiliário - Brasil - 2012EspeculaçãoInvestimentos imobiliários - BrasilThe Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALOctave_Thesis final_2012.pdfOctave_Thesis final_2012.pdfapplication/pdf908204https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/776e51fe-57c1-4172-b7c5-ae1b574d64f4/downloade7ca97f82bb0014fec615367ceb99499MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/1225f626-c94d-4682-a980-2c5c091e1172/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTOctave_Thesis 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
title |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
spellingShingle |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? Lapeyronie, Octave Serge Christian Marie Bolha Especulativo Imóveis Preço de imóveis Ciência política Compra e venda Imóveis - Preços Mercado imobiliário - Brasil - 2012 Especulação Investimentos imobiliários - Brasil |
title_short |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
title_full |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
title_fullStr |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
title_sort |
The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble? |
author |
Lapeyronie, Octave Serge Christian Marie |
author_facet |
Lapeyronie, Octave Serge Christian Marie |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EAESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Eid Júnior, William Rochman, Ricardo Ratner |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lapeyronie, Octave Serge Christian Marie |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Andreassi, Tales |
contributor_str_mv |
Andreassi, Tales |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Bolha Especulativo Imóveis Preço de imóveis |
topic |
Bolha Especulativo Imóveis Preço de imóveis Ciência política Compra e venda Imóveis - Preços Mercado imobiliário - Brasil - 2012 Especulação Investimentos imobiliários - Brasil |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Ciência política |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Compra e venda Imóveis - Preços Mercado imobiliário - Brasil - 2012 Especulação Investimentos imobiliários - Brasil |
description |
Rising home prices in Brazil have sparked debate on a possible housing bubble. In light of the credit and housing crisis in the United States, it is fair to question whether or not Brazil’s situation is analogous. Looking at both quantitative and fundamental arguments, we examine the context of the Brazilian housing boom and question its sustainability in the near term. First, home prices tested with basic rental yields and affordability ratios as well an imputed rent model to assess their relative to equilibrium levels. Second, we examine some fundamental factors affecting housing prices – supply and demand, credit and regulation, cultural factors – to find evidence justifying the rising home prices. From these observations, we attempt to draw rational inferences on the likely near future evolution of the Brazilian housing market. While data suggests that home prices are overvalued in comparison to rent levels, there is an evidence of legitimate new housing demand in the rising middle class. A more serious risk may lie in the credit markets in that the Brazilian consumer is already highly leveraged. Nevertheless, we find no evidence suggesting more than a temporary slowdown or correction of home prices. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2012-12-27T16:32:05Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2012-12-27T16:32:05Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2012-12-11 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
LAPEYRONIE, Octave Serge Christian Marie. The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Gestão Internacional) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2012. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10333 |
identifier_str_mv |
LAPEYRONIE, Octave Serge Christian Marie. The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Gestão Internacional) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2012. |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10333 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
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