Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Valk, Serge de
Data de Publicação: 2020
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30272
Resumo: Policymakers endividados e com orçamentos limitados podem enfrentar choques inflacionários forçando-os a (i) aumentar as taxas de juros para manter a inflação em uma meta pré-anunciada ou (ii) aceitar inflação mais alta para reduzir os custos da dívida. Propomos um modelo de equilíbrio geral onde existe um trade-off intertemporal entre a política fiscal e a política monetária quando agentes olhando para frente, racionais e plenamente informados financiam déficits públicos. Mostramos que dúvidas sobre a credibilidade da meta aumentam a inflação esperada e pressionam um policymaker altruísta para atender às necessidades fiscais com inflação, deprimindo o consumo privado e o PIB. A contínua indisciplina fiscal inevitavelmente faz com que a inflação ultrapasse a meta, pois o policymaker não consegue coordenar as expectativas.
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spelling Valk, Serge deEscolas::EPGESantos, Rafael ChavesCavalcanti, Ricardo de OliveiraWerlang, Sergio Ribeiro da CostaBertolai, Jefferson Donizeti PereiraAraújo, Aloísio Pessoa de2021-03-21T19:41:10Z2021-03-21T19:41:10Z2020-12-15https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30272Policymakers endividados e com orçamentos limitados podem enfrentar choques inflacionários forçando-os a (i) aumentar as taxas de juros para manter a inflação em uma meta pré-anunciada ou (ii) aceitar inflação mais alta para reduzir os custos da dívida. Propomos um modelo de equilíbrio geral onde existe um trade-off intertemporal entre a política fiscal e a política monetária quando agentes olhando para frente, racionais e plenamente informados financiam déficits públicos. Mostramos que dúvidas sobre a credibilidade da meta aumentam a inflação esperada e pressionam um policymaker altruísta para atender às necessidades fiscais com inflação, deprimindo o consumo privado e o PIB. A contínua indisciplina fiscal inevitavelmente faz com que a inflação ultrapasse a meta, pois o policymaker não consegue coordenar as expectativas.Indebted policymakers with limited budgets may face inflationary shocks forcing them to either (i) increase interest rates to have inflation on a pre-announced target or (ii) accept higher inflation to reduce debt costs. We propose a general equilibrium framework to model the inter-temporal trade-off between fiscal and monetary policy when forward-looking, rational, and fully informed agents finance public deficits. We show that doubts about the target’s credibility increase expected inflation and pressure an altruistic policymaker to meet fiscal needs with inflation, depressing private consumption and GDP. Continued fiscal indiscipline inevitably causes inflation to overshoot the target as the policymaker fails to coordinate expectations.engPolítica MonetáriaPolítica FiscalDívida PúblicaMonetary policyFiscal policyDebt policyEconomiaPolítica monetáriaPolítica tributáriaDívida públicaEssays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragilityinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/060236ca-dd86-41fa-b24a-33e4516f0fc4/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52ORIGINALPhD_Serge_de_Valk.pdfPhD_Serge_de_Valk.pdfPDFapplication/pdf1297792https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/ef84e197-ff7d-49d5-a207-797b74fa041f/downloadfc336fb1e8feffc69a2917b888fd60d2MD51TEXTPhD_Serge_de_Valk.pdf.txtPhD_Serge_de_Valk.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
title Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
spellingShingle Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
Valk, Serge de
Política Monetária
Política Fiscal
Dívida Pública
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Debt policy
Economia
Política monetária
Política tributária
Dívida pública
title_short Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
title_full Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
title_fullStr Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
title_full_unstemmed Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
title_sort Essays on inflation targeting under fiscal fragility
author Valk, Serge de
author_facet Valk, Serge de
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Santos, Rafael Chaves
Cavalcanti, Ricardo de Oliveira
Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa
Bertolai, Jefferson Donizeti Pereira
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Valk, Serge de
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de
contributor_str_mv Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Política Monetária
Política Fiscal
Dívida Pública
topic Política Monetária
Política Fiscal
Dívida Pública
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Debt policy
Economia
Política monetária
Política tributária
Dívida pública
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Debt policy
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Política monetária
Política tributária
Dívida pública
description Policymakers endividados e com orçamentos limitados podem enfrentar choques inflacionários forçando-os a (i) aumentar as taxas de juros para manter a inflação em uma meta pré-anunciada ou (ii) aceitar inflação mais alta para reduzir os custos da dívida. Propomos um modelo de equilíbrio geral onde existe um trade-off intertemporal entre a política fiscal e a política monetária quando agentes olhando para frente, racionais e plenamente informados financiam déficits públicos. Mostramos que dúvidas sobre a credibilidade da meta aumentam a inflação esperada e pressionam um policymaker altruísta para atender às necessidades fiscais com inflação, deprimindo o consumo privado e o PIB. A contínua indisciplina fiscal inevitavelmente faz com que a inflação ultrapasse a meta, pois o policymaker não consegue coordenar as expectativas.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2020-12-15
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2021-03-21T19:41:10Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2021-03-21T19:41:10Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
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url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/30272
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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