Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14270 |
Resumo: | The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case. |
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Brito, Márcio Holland deEscolas::EESP2015-11-27T17:18:17Z2015-11-27T17:18:17Z2015-11-27TD 407http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14270The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case.engEESP- Textos para Discussão;TD 407Fiscal policyFiscal consolidation policyCounter-cyclical policiesFiscal crisisEconomiaPolítica tributáriaFiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALTD 407 - Márcio Holland.pdfTD 407 - Márcio Holland.pdfapplication/pdf1609963https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/e389115e-aa48-4ef9-9e75-109ec725ca3f/download4e594d3d0ce285b61a605ecfbfe8ebb8MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/c532fe6b-1824-42ee-80ad-3d6f8041b5b2/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTTD 407 - Márcio Holland.pdf.txtTD 407 - Márcio 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
title |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
spellingShingle |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis Brito, Márcio Holland de Fiscal policy Fiscal consolidation policy Counter-cyclical policies Fiscal crisis Economia Política tributária |
title_short |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
title_full |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
title_fullStr |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
title_sort |
Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis |
author |
Brito, Márcio Holland de |
author_facet |
Brito, Márcio Holland de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Brito, Márcio Holland de |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy Fiscal consolidation policy Counter-cyclical policies Fiscal crisis |
topic |
Fiscal policy Fiscal consolidation policy Counter-cyclical policies Fiscal crisis Economia Política tributária |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Política tributária |
description |
The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-27T17:18:17Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-27T17:18:17Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-27 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14270 |
dc.identifier.sici.none.fl_str_mv |
TD 407 |
identifier_str_mv |
TD 407 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14270 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
EESP- Textos para Discussão;TD 407 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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