On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho
Data de Publicação: 2012
Outros Autores: Issler, João Victor, Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9320
Resumo: Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.
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spelling Guillen, Osmani Teixeira CarvalhoIssler, João VictorFranco Neto, Afonso Arinos de MelloEscolas::EPGEFGV2012-02-28T20:44:27Z2012-02-28T20:44:27Z2012-02-280104-8910http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9320Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.engFundação Getulio Vargas. 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
title On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
spellingShingle On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho
Welfare costs
Structural time-series model
Economic growth variation
Business cycles fluctuations
Economia
Economia
Desenvolvimento econômico
title_short On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
title_full On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
title_fullStr On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
title_full_unstemmed On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
title_sort On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century
author Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho
author_facet Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho
Issler, João Victor
Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello
author_role author
author2 Issler, João Victor
Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho
Issler, João Victor
Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Welfare costs
Structural time-series model
topic Welfare costs
Structural time-series model
Economic growth variation
Business cycles fluctuations
Economia
Economia
Desenvolvimento econômico
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Economic growth variation
Business cycles fluctuations
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Economia
Desenvolvimento econômico
description Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2012-02-28T20:44:27Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2012-02-28T20:44:27Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2012-02-28
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 0104-8910
identifier_str_mv 0104-8910
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dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
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dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv Ensaios Econômicos;729
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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