Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14200 |
Resumo: | Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity. |
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Neri, Marcelo CôrtesVaz, Fábio MonteiroSouza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira deEscolas::EPGEFGV2015-11-10T16:58:28Z2015-11-10T16:58:28Z2015-11-100104-8910http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14200Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.As transferências do governo para indivíduos e famílias desempenham papel central no caso brasileiro, representando quase 14 por cento do PIB em 2009. Embora seus impactos fiscais e redistributivos já tenham sido amplamente estudados, os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências são mais raros. Construímos uma Matriz de Contabilidade Social (MCS) referente a 2009 e estimaram os multiplicadores contábeis de curto prazo para sete transferências monetárias governamentais distintas . A MCS é uma matriz quadrada de dupla entrada que descreve os fluxos de renda da economia. A maioria dos dados foi compilada a partir das Contas Nacionais do Brasil de 2009 e da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares 2008/2009. Nossa MCS foi desagregada em 56 setores, 110 produtos, 200 grupos de famílias e sete fatores de produção (capital e mais seis tipos de trabalho por escolaridade). Finalmente, realizamos uma série de regressões para separar o consumo das famílias em componentes 'exógenos' (ou 'autônomos') e 'endógenos'. Mais especificamente, estimamos os efeitos de uma injeção exógena em cada uma das transferências governamentais. Todas as outras contas são, portanto, endógenas. Os vazamentos endógenos da demanda – como poupanças, impostos e importações – são cruciais para determinar o efeito multiplicador de uma injeção exógena, pois permitem que o sistema volte ao equilíbrio. O modelo pressupõe que a oferta seja perfeitamente elástica face a injeções na demanda. Assume que a propensão das famílias a poupar e o perfil de consumo sejam fixos – isto é, o aumento da renda não provoca mudanças no comportamento. O Programa Bolsa Família tem o maior efeito, se o governo aumentasse os gastos com o Bolsa Família em 1 por cento do PIB, a atividade econômica como um todo aumentaria 1,78 por cento. Outra transferência focalizada, o Benefício de Prestação Continuada, vem em segundo lugar. Três transferências – a previdência do setor privado e dos servidores públicos e os saques do FGTS – tiveram multiplicadores menores do que. Assim, sob os pressupostos rígidos de nosso modelo, os resultados confirmam, de modo geral, a hipótese de que grande parte das transferências do governo direcionadas aos pobres é mais expansionista. Naturalmente, deve-se ressaltar que os multiplicadores relacionam injeções marginais nas transferências do governo ao desempenho da demanda que só afetará provocará expansão da renda real com capacidade ociosa caso contrário teremos mais inflação o que o modelo desenvolvido ajuda a traçar cenários. No longo prazo, não há dúvida de que o que realmente importa é a expansão da capacidade produtiva do país.porFundação Getulio Vargas. 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
title |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
spellingShingle |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social Neri, Marcelo Côrtes Economia Economia |
title_short |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
title_full |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
title_fullStr |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
title_full_unstemmed |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
title_sort |
Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social |
author |
Neri, Marcelo Côrtes |
author_facet |
Neri, Marcelo Côrtes Vaz, Fábio Monteiro Souza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira de |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Vaz, Fábio Monteiro Souza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira de |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Neri, Marcelo Côrtes Vaz, Fábio Monteiro Souza, Pedro Herculano Guimarães Ferreira de |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
topic |
Economia Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
description |
Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-10T16:58:28Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-10T16:58:28Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-11-10 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14200 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
0104-8910 |
identifier_str_mv |
0104-8910 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14200 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
Ensaios Econômicos;770 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
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