The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Data de Publicação: 2017
Outros Autores: Cunha, Ronan, Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, Simões, Oscar
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18626
Resumo: Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow test. The rejection of the null hypothesis in the first test shows that financial events had impacts on Brazilian economy whereas rejection in the second is an evidence of contagion. Our estimates suggest that Brazilian industrial production dropped -9.34% at annual rate basis from December 2007 till June 2009 compared to a scenario of no effect and -6,34% when compared to a scenario of no contagion.
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spelling Marçal, Emerson FernandesCunha, RonanMerlin, Giovanni TondinSimões, OscarEscolas::EESP2017-08-09T13:17:23Z2017-08-09T13:17:23Z2017TD 459http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18626Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow test. The rejection of the null hypothesis in the first test shows that financial events had impacts on Brazilian economy whereas rejection in the second is an evidence of contagion. Our estimates suggest that Brazilian industrial production dropped -9.34% at annual rate basis from December 2007 till June 2009 compared to a scenario of no effect and -6,34% when compared to a scenario of no contagion.engEESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 459Counterfactual analysisStructural changeEconomiaCrise financeira global, 2008-2009Modelos econométricosBrasil - Condições econômicasThe aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNúcleo do Observatório de Câmbio e Comércio (FGV EESP)Observatório de CâmbioTEXTTD 459_CEMAP11.pdf.txtTD 459_CEMAP11.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain19896https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/991e8c78-2ff6-467c-b710-26dbe89fb17f/downloadaaab70bbb71ee25c61f12beef29869d9MD55ORIGINALTD 459_CEMAP11.pdfTD 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
title The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
spellingShingle The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Counterfactual analysis
Structural change
Economia
Crise financeira global, 2008-2009
Modelos econométricos
Brasil - Condições econômicas
title_short The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
title_full The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
title_fullStr The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
title_full_unstemmed The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
title_sort The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?
author Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
author_facet Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Cunha, Ronan
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar
author_role author
author2 Cunha, Ronan
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Cunha, Ronan
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Counterfactual analysis
Structural change
topic Counterfactual analysis
Structural change
Economia
Crise financeira global, 2008-2009
Modelos econométricos
Brasil - Condições econômicas
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Crise financeira global, 2008-2009
Modelos econométricos
Brasil - Condições econômicas
description Financial events in 2008 had global impacts. We test whether U.S downturn had an impact on Brazilian economic activity and if it was unusual. We run policy ineffectiveness test (Pesaran and Smith [2014, 2016]) and Chow test. The rejection of the null hypothesis in the first test shows that financial events had impacts on Brazilian economy whereas rejection in the second is an evidence of contagion. Our estimates suggest that Brazilian industrial production dropped -9.34% at annual rate basis from December 2007 till June 2009 compared to a scenario of no effect and -6,34% when compared to a scenario of no contagion.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2017-08-09T13:17:23Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2017-08-09T13:17:23Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18626
dc.identifier.sici.none.fl_str_mv TD 459
identifier_str_mv TD 459
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18626
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv EESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 459
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