Modelagem de previsões econômicas em cenários prospectivos

• Autor(a) principal: Cortezi, Fernando
• Data de Publicação: 2008
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/7916
• topic: Economia; Previsão econômica

The economic stability that Brazil currently faces allows us to rescue the tradition of assessing médium and long term prospective analysis. Thus, there is a need of thinking more deeply about the evolution of the Brazilian economy, and it is vital to get to know economic forecasting models. This paper aims at contributing to this purpose. For understanding the progress of macro-economic forecasting models it is necessary to be aware of the evolution of non-structural and structural models approach. As structural models depend on economic theory, importance is given and neglected to them as far as the theory evolves and falls into disuse. The characteristic of macroeconomic forecasts in the coming years will be the marriage of best structural and non-structural approaches, facilitated by advances in numerical and simulation techniques. In order to empirically illustrate the application of theory, three scenarios for the Brazilian economy were developed, using the theoretical framework summarized in one of the sections of this paper. Scenarios potentially provide very significant value to the business management of a company or an institution. Scenarios are the eightieth most used management tool in the world2 and this paper is a contribution to this important field.