O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17549 |
Resumo: | In this work we analyze the systematic risk implied in the Brazilian electricity distribution sector and compare it with the evolution of regulatory return rate (WACC Regulatory), in order to identify the presence of an additional risk premium with characteristics of regulatory risk. The energy distribution sector and its energy tariffs (price-caps) are regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). The agency performs tariff revisions, every four/five years, in order to reestablish the financial-economic balance of concessionaires and to provide any adjustments to the regulatory model. The main step consists in measure the minimum regulatory return to reward the invested capital. Currently the sector goes through the 4th cycle of rate review (form 2015 to 2019) and, unlike the first two processes; ANEEL does not include the regulatory risk component in the composition of the Regulatory WACC (from CAPM methodology). Despite advances in the creation and consolidation of the regulatory model, the sector has faced serious problems in the regulatory/political front and huge financial losses in all electricity segments, resulting in a significant increase in systematic risk. The main sector’s events and their side-effects were analyzed in this work. In order to identify factors that explain the presence of additional risk in electric utilities, this work analyzes the evolution of some electricity distributors’ betas and applied a multi-factor panel data model. The main conclusion is that regulatory instability and institutional uncertainties affects the sector`systematic risk (betas) and show evidences to support the presence of a non-diversifiable regulatory risk. On the other hand, a stable and properly regulatory framework reduces the variance of returns, reduces the betas and the required rate of return for investments in a sector that is capital intensive and long-term investment. |
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Sousa, Victor Pereira deEscolas::EPGEFGVGonçalves, Edson Daniel LopesKelman, JersonRibeiro, Eduardo PontualDutra, Joísa Campanher2016-12-06T11:47:28Z2016-12-06T11:47:28Z2015-05-15SOUSA, Victor Pereira. O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17549In this work we analyze the systematic risk implied in the Brazilian electricity distribution sector and compare it with the evolution of regulatory return rate (WACC Regulatory), in order to identify the presence of an additional risk premium with characteristics of regulatory risk. The energy distribution sector and its energy tariffs (price-caps) are regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). The agency performs tariff revisions, every four/five years, in order to reestablish the financial-economic balance of concessionaires and to provide any adjustments to the regulatory model. The main step consists in measure the minimum regulatory return to reward the invested capital. Currently the sector goes through the 4th cycle of rate review (form 2015 to 2019) and, unlike the first two processes; ANEEL does not include the regulatory risk component in the composition of the Regulatory WACC (from CAPM methodology). Despite advances in the creation and consolidation of the regulatory model, the sector has faced serious problems in the regulatory/political front and huge financial losses in all electricity segments, resulting in a significant increase in systematic risk. The main sector’s events and their side-effects were analyzed in this work. In order to identify factors that explain the presence of additional risk in electric utilities, this work analyzes the evolution of some electricity distributors’ betas and applied a multi-factor panel data model. The main conclusion is that regulatory instability and institutional uncertainties affects the sector`systematic risk (betas) and show evidences to support the presence of a non-diversifiable regulatory risk. On the other hand, a stable and properly regulatory framework reduces the variance of returns, reduces the betas and the required rate of return for investments in a sector that is capital intensive and long-term investment.Este trabalho objetiva analisar o risco sistemático presente no setor de distribuição de energia elétrica, avaliar a evolução da taxa de retorno regulatória (WACC Regulatório) e identificar a presença de um prêmio de risco adicional com características de risco regulatório. O setor de distribuição de energia elétrica por seguir a lógica de monopólio natural é regulado pelo Estado. Nesse sentido, de forma periódica (geralmente a cada 4 anos), a agência reguladora realiza um processo de revisão tarifária com objetivo de reestabelecer o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro das concessionárias, além de promover eventuais ajustes no modelo regulatório. Em uma das etapas do processo é definida a taxa de remuneração regulatória com objetivo de remunerar o capital investido frente aos riscos assumidos pela companhia. Atualmente o setor passa pelo 4ª Ciclo de Revisão Tarifária '4CRTP', compreendendo o período de 2015 a 2019 e, ao contrário dos dois primeiros processos, a ANEEL não inclui o componente de risco regulatório na formação do custo de capital próprio. Entretanto, o Sistema Elétrico Brasileiro, apesar dos avanços com a criação e consolidação do modelo institucional, tem enfrentado graves problemas e elevadas perdas financeiras em todos os segmentos. Com falhas de implementação, os esforços governamentais geraram problemas ainda mais severos, culminado com aumento significativo do risco sistemático. Os principais acontecimentos e seus efeitos foram analisados neste trabalho. De forma a identificar fatores que explicam a presença adicional de risco nas empresas de energia elétrica, foi analisada a evolução das medidas de risco sistemáticos (betas) de algumas empresas do setor elétrico e aplicado um modelo econométrico de regressão de multi-fatores em dados em painel. A principal conclusão é que a instabilidade regulatória e insegurança institucional afeta o risco sistemático das empresas (betas) e torna evidente a presença de um risco regulatório não diversificável. Por outro lado, uma regulação feita de forma adequada reduz a variância dos retornos, reduz os betas e a taxa de retorno requerida para investimentos em um setor que é intensivo em capital e de longo prazo.porCapital asset pricing model (CAPM)Regulatory riskSystematic riskRegulationRisco regulatórioRisco sistemáticoRegulaçãoEconomiaRisco (Economia)Avaliação de ativos – Modelo (CAPM)Ações (Finanças) - PreçosAgências reguladoras de atividades privadasO risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétricainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVTEXTDissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf.txtDissertação EPGE_Victor Sousa.pdf.txtExtracted 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|
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
title |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
spellingShingle |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica Sousa, Victor Pereira de Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Regulatory risk Systematic risk Regulation Risco regulatório Risco sistemático Regulação Economia Risco (Economia) Avaliação de ativos – Modelo (CAPM) Ações (Finanças) - Preços Agências reguladoras de atividades privadas |
title_short |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
title_full |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
title_fullStr |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
title_full_unstemmed |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
title_sort |
O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica |
author |
Sousa, Victor Pereira de |
author_facet |
Sousa, Victor Pereira de |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Gonçalves, Edson Daniel Lopes Kelman, Jerson Ribeiro, Eduardo Pontual |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Sousa, Victor Pereira de |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Dutra, Joísa Campanher |
contributor_str_mv |
Dutra, Joísa Campanher |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Regulatory risk Systematic risk Regulation |
topic |
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Regulatory risk Systematic risk Regulation Risco regulatório Risco sistemático Regulação Economia Risco (Economia) Avaliação de ativos – Modelo (CAPM) Ações (Finanças) - Preços Agências reguladoras de atividades privadas |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Risco regulatório Risco sistemático Regulação |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Risco (Economia) Avaliação de ativos – Modelo (CAPM) Ações (Finanças) - Preços Agências reguladoras de atividades privadas |
description |
In this work we analyze the systematic risk implied in the Brazilian electricity distribution sector and compare it with the evolution of regulatory return rate (WACC Regulatory), in order to identify the presence of an additional risk premium with characteristics of regulatory risk. The energy distribution sector and its energy tariffs (price-caps) are regulated by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL). The agency performs tariff revisions, every four/five years, in order to reestablish the financial-economic balance of concessionaires and to provide any adjustments to the regulatory model. The main step consists in measure the minimum regulatory return to reward the invested capital. Currently the sector goes through the 4th cycle of rate review (form 2015 to 2019) and, unlike the first two processes; ANEEL does not include the regulatory risk component in the composition of the Regulatory WACC (from CAPM methodology). Despite advances in the creation and consolidation of the regulatory model, the sector has faced serious problems in the regulatory/political front and huge financial losses in all electricity segments, resulting in a significant increase in systematic risk. The main sector’s events and their side-effects were analyzed in this work. In order to identify factors that explain the presence of additional risk in electric utilities, this work analyzes the evolution of some electricity distributors’ betas and applied a multi-factor panel data model. The main conclusion is that regulatory instability and institutional uncertainties affects the sector`systematic risk (betas) and show evidences to support the presence of a non-diversifiable regulatory risk. On the other hand, a stable and properly regulatory framework reduces the variance of returns, reduces the betas and the required rate of return for investments in a sector that is capital intensive and long-term investment. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2015-05-15 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-06T11:47:28Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-06T11:47:28Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
SOUSA, Victor Pereira. O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17549 |
identifier_str_mv |
SOUSA, Victor Pereira. O risco sistemático e a taxa de retorno regulatória no segmento de distribuição de energia elétrica. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2015. |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/17549 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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