Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2007 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13018 |
Resumo: | There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework. |
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Santos, Rafael ChavesAraújo, Aloísio Pessoa deEscolas::EPGEFGV2015-01-06T11:28:27Z2015-01-06T11:28:27Z2007-02-09http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13018There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.engFundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia.Seminários de Almoço da EPGETodo cuidado foi dispensado para respeitar os direitos autorais deste trabalho. Entretanto, caso esta obra aqui depositada seja protegida por direitos autorais externos a esta instituição, contamos com a compreensão do autor e solicitamos que o mesmo faça contato através do Fale Conosco para que possamos tomar as providências cabíveisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessInflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspectsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleEconomiaBancos centraisInflaçãoreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVORIGINAL000388342_s237i.pdf000388342_s237i.pdfapplication/pdf974657https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/ec2ebcee-0c64-43d9-ba15-88f71a8728e5/download897dea1e53c624308a414c752d9b774bMD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/b251d36a-2e8b-48a7-b520-f0605c45309f/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXT000388342_s237i.pdf.txt000388342_s237i.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
title |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
spellingShingle |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects Santos, Rafael Chaves Economia Bancos centrais Inflação |
title_short |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
title_full |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
title_fullStr |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
title_sort |
Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects |
author |
Santos, Rafael Chaves |
author_facet |
Santos, Rafael Chaves Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EPGE |
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv |
FGV |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Rafael Chaves Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
topic |
Economia Bancos centrais Inflação |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Bancos centrais Inflação |
description |
There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework. |
publishDate |
2007 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2007-02-09 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2015-01-06T11:28:27Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2015-01-06T11:28:27Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13018 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
Seminários de Almoço da EPGE |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia. |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-graduação em Economia. |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
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Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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