Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2024 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/35351 |
Resumo: | The following thesis aims to look for and analyze any unexpected changes in the Brazilian beef exports time-series and quantify the impact that certain events and variables had on it during the period of January 2013 to December 2022. The Bai & Perron (2003) structuralbreak model was used to check for unusual changes in the time-series; the Prais–Winsten (1954) estimation was used for a regression of the beef export volume time-series, with domestic and export prices of beef, chicken, and pork, income, exchange rate and time as the independent variables. This study will have a higher emphasis on describing the events that occurred within each Break that may have affected the international demand for Brazilian Beef. Comparisons with prior and similar research, such as the study done by Melz et al (2014) will be made in order to better contextualize and see the evolution of the Brazilian beef exports. It was found that the Brazilian Beef demand has constantly been achieving new record highs. It was also discovered that there was only one structural break in the period studied, with said break pertaining to the 2018 Brazilian truck drivers’ strike, which almost paralyzed the exports for its duration. Furthermore, it was discovered that the pandemic and Ukraine-Russia war did not negatively affect Brazilian Beef exports, and that the events that most impacted the export volume of Brazilian beef, besides the truck drivers’ strike, were exogenous events such as a prolonged Chinese embargo on Brazilian Beef, and widespread rumors and repercussions of the operation “Carne Fraca” (Weak Meat). |
id |
FGV_c15503fad59600e3d2511491d1a50552 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/35351 |
network_acronym_str |
FGV |
network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
repository_id_str |
3974 |
spelling |
Santos, Victor LaraEscolas::EAESPPacheco, Julia Alice Sophia von MaltzanRossi, George BedinelliPereira, Luís Henrique2024-05-28T13:25:13Z2024-05-28T13:25:13Z2024-05-13https://hdl.handle.net/10438/35351The following thesis aims to look for and analyze any unexpected changes in the Brazilian beef exports time-series and quantify the impact that certain events and variables had on it during the period of January 2013 to December 2022. The Bai & Perron (2003) structuralbreak model was used to check for unusual changes in the time-series; the Prais–Winsten (1954) estimation was used for a regression of the beef export volume time-series, with domestic and export prices of beef, chicken, and pork, income, exchange rate and time as the independent variables. This study will have a higher emphasis on describing the events that occurred within each Break that may have affected the international demand for Brazilian Beef. Comparisons with prior and similar research, such as the study done by Melz et al (2014) will be made in order to better contextualize and see the evolution of the Brazilian beef exports. It was found that the Brazilian Beef demand has constantly been achieving new record highs. It was also discovered that there was only one structural break in the period studied, with said break pertaining to the 2018 Brazilian truck drivers’ strike, which almost paralyzed the exports for its duration. Furthermore, it was discovered that the pandemic and Ukraine-Russia war did not negatively affect Brazilian Beef exports, and that the events that most impacted the export volume of Brazilian beef, besides the truck drivers’ strike, were exogenous events such as a prolonged Chinese embargo on Brazilian Beef, and widespread rumors and repercussions of the operation “Carne Fraca” (Weak Meat).A presente tese tem como objetivo procurar, analisar mudanças inesperadas na série temporal de exportação de carne bovina brasileira e quantificar o impacto que certos eventos e variáveis tiveram nela ao longo do período de Janeiro de 2013 até Dezembro de 2022. O modelo de quebras-estruturais de Bai & Perron (2003) foi utilizado para procurar por mudanças não usuais na série temporal; a estimação de Prais-Winsten (1954) foi utilizada para a regressão da série temporal de volume de exportação de carne bovina usando as variáveis de preços de exportação e internos de carne bovina, frango e porco, PIB, taxa de câmbio e tempo como variáveis independentes. Este estudo enfatizará a descrição dos eventos que ocorreram em cada quebra que possam ter afetado a demanda internacional pela carne bovina brasileira. Comparações com estudos passados e similares, tal qual o estudo feito por Melz et al (2014), serão feitas para melhor contextualizar os dados e avaliar a evolução da exportação de carne bovina brasileira. Foi descoberto que a demanda por carne bovina brasileira tem consistentemente aumentado. Também foi descoberto que houve apenas uma quebra-estrutural no período analisado, referente a greve dos caminhoneiros de 2018, que paralisou as exportações por sua duração. Eventos como a pandemia de COVID-19 e a guerra entre Rússia e Ucrânia não afetaram negativamente as exportações brasileiras de carne bovina. Eventos exógenos como o embargo Chinês a carne bovina brasileira e a operação “Carne Fraca” foram os que mais afetaram a serie temporal.engExportsTime seriesEconometricsStructural breaksImportsExportaçãoSéries temporaisEconometriaQuebras-estruturaisImportaçãoAdministração de empresasCarne bovina - Exportação - BrasilAgroindústriaAnálise de séries temporaisEconometriaStructural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-85112https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/268d092f-f7bd-4bf7-9bca-14f98650c76d/download2a4b67231f701c416a809246e7a10077MD51ORIGINALStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdfStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdfPDFapplication/pdf1437414https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7d28cb9e-83bd-474c-b8e1-0bcdf54792af/downloadc94a9db4433be59cee9dd6a4742f23ffMD52TEXTStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdf.txtStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain100490https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/78060c1a-06cd-49da-a074-b87ddd9ce133/downloadd00a20bb5569759b29a7d458b1b3caddMD53THUMBNAILStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdf.jpgStructural Breaks and Time-Series Analysis of Brazilian Beef Exports From January 2013 to December 2022 - FGV (2).pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2619https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/90b34e22-9263-4521-8f30-aff867dd75b8/downloadc211e2dae506d199e559f431d09c55f5MD5410438/353512024-05-28 15:20:03.986open.accessoai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/35351https://repositorio.fgv.brRepositório InstitucionalPRIhttp://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace-oai/requestopendoar:39742024-05-28T15:20:03Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)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 |
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
title |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
spellingShingle |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 Santos, Victor Lara Exports Time series Econometrics Structural breaks Imports Exportação Séries temporais Econometria Quebras-estruturais Importação Administração de empresas Carne bovina - Exportação - Brasil Agroindústria Análise de séries temporais Econometria |
title_short |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
title_full |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
title_fullStr |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
title_sort |
Structural breaks and time-series analysis of Brazilian beef exports from january 2013 to december 2022 |
author |
Santos, Victor Lara |
author_facet |
Santos, Victor Lara |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EAESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Pacheco, Julia Alice Sophia von Maltzan Rossi, George Bedinelli |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Victor Lara |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Pereira, Luís Henrique |
contributor_str_mv |
Pereira, Luís Henrique |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Exports Time series Econometrics Structural breaks Imports |
topic |
Exports Time series Econometrics Structural breaks Imports Exportação Séries temporais Econometria Quebras-estruturais Importação Administração de empresas Carne bovina - Exportação - Brasil Agroindústria Análise de séries temporais Econometria |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Exportação Séries temporais Econometria Quebras-estruturais Importação |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Administração de empresas |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Carne bovina - Exportação - Brasil Agroindústria Análise de séries temporais Econometria |
description |
The following thesis aims to look for and analyze any unexpected changes in the Brazilian beef exports time-series and quantify the impact that certain events and variables had on it during the period of January 2013 to December 2022. The Bai & Perron (2003) structuralbreak model was used to check for unusual changes in the time-series; the Prais–Winsten (1954) estimation was used for a regression of the beef export volume time-series, with domestic and export prices of beef, chicken, and pork, income, exchange rate and time as the independent variables. This study will have a higher emphasis on describing the events that occurred within each Break that may have affected the international demand for Brazilian Beef. Comparisons with prior and similar research, such as the study done by Melz et al (2014) will be made in order to better contextualize and see the evolution of the Brazilian beef exports. It was found that the Brazilian Beef demand has constantly been achieving new record highs. It was also discovered that there was only one structural break in the period studied, with said break pertaining to the 2018 Brazilian truck drivers’ strike, which almost paralyzed the exports for its duration. Furthermore, it was discovered that the pandemic and Ukraine-Russia war did not negatively affect Brazilian Beef exports, and that the events that most impacted the export volume of Brazilian beef, besides the truck drivers’ strike, were exogenous events such as a prolonged Chinese embargo on Brazilian Beef, and widespread rumors and repercussions of the operation “Carne Fraca” (Weak Meat). |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2024-05-28T13:25:13Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2024-05-28T13:25:13Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2024-05-13 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/35351 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10438/35351 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
instname_str |
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
instacron_str |
FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/268d092f-f7bd-4bf7-9bca-14f98650c76d/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7d28cb9e-83bd-474c-b8e1-0bcdf54792af/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/78060c1a-06cd-49da-a074-b87ddd9ce133/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/90b34e22-9263-4521-8f30-aff867dd75b8/download |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
2a4b67231f701c416a809246e7a10077 c94a9db4433be59cee9dd6a4742f23ff d00a20bb5569759b29a7d458b1b3cadd c211e2dae506d199e559f431d09c55f5 |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1802749916445933568 |