Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2009 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2632 |
Resumo: | This work analyses the Brazilian output volatility from 1980 to 2008, which exhibits a sharp decline of 70% since the early 1990s. By analyzing the behavior of the variables that constitute the output, its components and determinants, this work seeks to show the reasons of this significant drop in output volatility during the considered period. Low output volatility brings positive consequences for society welfare, for income distribution and for long term growth. Several studies have been written to point out the causes of the decline in output volatility in different countries over the last two decades, a phenomenon that has been called as 'The Great Moderation' in the United States. Considering the benefits of this process, understanding their causes is indispensable for defining economic policies that guarantees the sustainability of moderated economic cycles. This work focuses on the importance of nominal factors (demand shocks) to explain the decline of Brazilian output volatility. On the hand, the absence of external restrictions for economic growth and the last worldwide prosperity cycle represent the contribution of the external portion. On the other hand, better practices of macroeconomic policies respond for the internal causes. |
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Brandão, Lisandro Meira LimaEscolas::EESPLucinda, Cláudio Ribeiro deCarvalho, AlexandreGala, Paulo2010-04-20T21:00:12Z2009-01-30BRANDÃO, Lisandro Meira Lima. Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2632This work analyses the Brazilian output volatility from 1980 to 2008, which exhibits a sharp decline of 70% since the early 1990s. By analyzing the behavior of the variables that constitute the output, its components and determinants, this work seeks to show the reasons of this significant drop in output volatility during the considered period. Low output volatility brings positive consequences for society welfare, for income distribution and for long term growth. Several studies have been written to point out the causes of the decline in output volatility in different countries over the last two decades, a phenomenon that has been called as 'The Great Moderation' in the United States. Considering the benefits of this process, understanding their causes is indispensable for defining economic policies that guarantees the sustainability of moderated economic cycles. This work focuses on the importance of nominal factors (demand shocks) to explain the decline of Brazilian output volatility. On the hand, the absence of external restrictions for economic growth and the last worldwide prosperity cycle represent the contribution of the external portion. On the other hand, better practices of macroeconomic policies respond for the internal causes.O presente trabalho analisa o comportamento da volatilidade do crescimento do produto brasileiro entre 1980 e 2008, cuja trajetória apresenta um declínio de 70% desde 1991. Através da análise do comportamento do PIB, de seus componentes e de seus determinantes, objetiva-se apontar as razões pela qual a volatilidade do crescimento caiu de forma significativa no período considerado. A baixa volatilidade do crescimento do produto traz conseqüências positivas para o bem-estar da sociedade, para a distribuição de renda e para o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. Diferentes estudos foram realizados para apontar as causas do declínio desta volatilidade em diversos países nas últimas três décadas, fenômeno que nos Estados Unidos passou a ser conhecido como The Great Moderation. Dados os benefícios deste processo, entender as suas razões é imprescindível para a formulação de políticas econômicas que garantam a sustentabilidade da moderação dos ciclos econômicos. Este trabalho concentra-se nos fatores nominais (choques de demanda) para explicar o processo de redução da volatilidade do crescimento brasileiro. De um lado, a ausência de restrições externas ao crescimento econômico e o ciclo de prosperidade mundial dos últimos cinco anos garantiram a contribuição da parcela externa. Por outro lado, a condução de políticas macroeconômicas mais sólidas, refletindo em uma maior estabilidade de variáveis como o nível de preços, respondem pelos fatores internos.porOutput volatilityGreat moderationVolatilidade do crescimento do produtoEconomiaProduto interno bruto - BrasilDesenvolvimento econômicoBrasil - Condições econômicasUma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisforever10000-01-01reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTHUMBNAILLisandro Meira Lima Brandão.pdf.jpgLisandro Meira Lima Brandão.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2539https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7e78af18-2746-4325-92fe-bf80168b1de8/download717efc2c778a787eead635dabfc707f0MD59TEXTLisandro Meira Lima Brandão.pdf.txtLisandro Meira Lima Brandão.pdf.txtExtracted 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|
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
title |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
spellingShingle |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro Brandão, Lisandro Meira Lima Output volatility Great moderation Volatilidade do crescimento do produto Economia Produto interno bruto - Brasil Desenvolvimento econômico Brasil - Condições econômicas |
title_short |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
title_full |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
title_fullStr |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
title_sort |
Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro |
author |
Brandão, Lisandro Meira Lima |
author_facet |
Brandão, Lisandro Meira Lima |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv |
Lucinda, Cláudio Ribeiro de Carvalho, Alexandre |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Brandão, Lisandro Meira Lima |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Gala, Paulo |
contributor_str_mv |
Gala, Paulo |
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv |
Output volatility |
topic |
Output volatility Great moderation Volatilidade do crescimento do produto Economia Produto interno bruto - Brasil Desenvolvimento econômico Brasil - Condições econômicas |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Great moderation Volatilidade do crescimento do produto |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Produto interno bruto - Brasil Desenvolvimento econômico Brasil - Condições econômicas |
description |
This work analyses the Brazilian output volatility from 1980 to 2008, which exhibits a sharp decline of 70% since the early 1990s. By analyzing the behavior of the variables that constitute the output, its components and determinants, this work seeks to show the reasons of this significant drop in output volatility during the considered period. Low output volatility brings positive consequences for society welfare, for income distribution and for long term growth. Several studies have been written to point out the causes of the decline in output volatility in different countries over the last two decades, a phenomenon that has been called as 'The Great Moderation' in the United States. Considering the benefits of this process, understanding their causes is indispensable for defining economic policies that guarantees the sustainability of moderated economic cycles. This work focuses on the importance of nominal factors (demand shocks) to explain the decline of Brazilian output volatility. On the hand, the absence of external restrictions for economic growth and the last worldwide prosperity cycle represent the contribution of the external portion. On the other hand, better practices of macroeconomic policies respond for the internal causes. |
publishDate |
2009 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2009-01-30 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2010-04-20T21:00:12Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv |
BRANDÃO, Lisandro Meira Lima. Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009. |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2632 |
identifier_str_mv |
BRANDÃO, Lisandro Meira Lima. Uma análise da volatilidade do PIB brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009. |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2632 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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FGV |
institution |
FGV |
reponame_str |
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collection |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
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https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/7e78af18-2746-4325-92fe-bf80168b1de8/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/0f31deaf-5750-4ab2-b47f-1047dd9e004c/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/c5ee9170-e32d-4ba6-b0ee-2976ebb16b86/download https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/4cc6b961-c00d-409f-a159-7481dae90751/download |
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv |
717efc2c778a787eead635dabfc707f0 36194ee3e8d50cfe55d75518a34dbcc8 e0ae52d66911ec5de85ed0a6fb42b09d b75ef30b2e43b24a15fc92d828f1128f |
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) - Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1810023974862585856 |