Avaliação do impacto dos riscos políticos e regulatórios na indústria do petróleo

• Autor(a) principal: Guimarães, Marcelo Nova Alves Affonso
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
• Texto Completo: https://hdl.handle.net/10438/8440
• topic: Fluxo de caixa; Risco político; WACC; Indústria do petróleo; Risco regulatório; Political risk; Regulatory risk; Cash flow; Petroleum industry; Economia; Fluxo de caixa; Risco (Economia); Indústria petrolífera

The main objective of this study is to determine the best way to quantify the political and regulatory risks to which certain assets are exposed, which make their market values vary. We present and evaluate political and regulatory risks in the petroleum industry with hypothetical case studies based on real situations. Although affecting the entire economy, indicating that they are systemic risks and should be quantified by adding a spread in the WACC equation, our results indicate that the option to insert them via cash flow probabilistic scenarios produce more consistent results in relation to their true impacts and produce a more powerful analysis when compared to adding a spread in the WACC.