Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Colla, Ernesto Coutinho
Data de Publicação: 2009
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/4261
Resumo: We develop a probabilistic model using Machine Learning tools to classify the trend of the Brazilian country risk expressed EMBI+ (Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus). The main goal is verify if Machine Learning is useful to build economic models which could be used as reasoning tools under uncertainty. Specifically we use Bayesian Networks to perform pattern recognition in observed macroeconomics and financial data. The results are promising. We get the main expected theoretical relationship between country risk and economic variables, as well as international economic context and market expectations.
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spelling Colla, Ernesto CoutinhoEscolas::EESPPicchetti, PauloStern, Julio MichaelCozman, Fábio GagliardiTsuchida, Marcos H.Orellano, Verônica Inês Fernandez2010-04-20T21:50:53Z2009-06-29COLLA, Ernesto Coutinho. Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia. Tese (Doutorado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/4261We develop a probabilistic model using Machine Learning tools to classify the trend of the Brazilian country risk expressed EMBI+ (Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus). The main goal is verify if Machine Learning is useful to build economic models which could be used as reasoning tools under uncertainty. Specifically we use Bayesian Networks to perform pattern recognition in observed macroeconomics and financial data. The results are promising. We get the main expected theoretical relationship between country risk and economic variables, as well as international economic context and market expectations.O objetivo deste trabalho é testar a aplicação de um modelo gráfico probabilístico, denominado genericamente de Redes Bayesianas, para desenvolver modelos computacionais que possam ser utilizados para auxiliar a compreensão de problemas e/ou na previsão de variáveis de natureza econômica. Com este propósito, escolheu-se um problema amplamente abordado na literatura e comparou-se os resultados teóricos e experimentais já consolidados com os obtidos utilizando a técnica proposta. Para tanto,foi construído um modelo para a classificação da tendência do 'risco país' para o Brasil a partir de uma base de dados composta por variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras. Como medida do risco adotou-se o EMBI+ (Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus), por ser um indicador amplamente utilizado pelo mercado.porPattern recognitionMachine learningData miningModelos gráficos probabilísticosRedes bayesianasRisco-paísModelos macroeconômicosEconomiaModelos econômicosTeoria bayesiana de decisão estatísticaAprendizado do computadorMineração de dados (Computação)Reconhecimento de padrõesAplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisforever10000-01-01reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTHUMBNAILErnesto_Colla.pdf.jpgErnesto_Colla.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg2812https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/04b0ae21-f7bc-4996-ba1f-0c1b4018873a/downloade5f051b9a197f850895fdb8041a00643MD59TEXTErnesto_Colla.pdf.txtErnesto_Colla.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
title Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
spellingShingle Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
Colla, Ernesto Coutinho
Pattern recognition
Machine learning
Data mining
Modelos gráficos probabilísticos
Redes bayesianas
Risco-país
Modelos macroeconômicos
Economia
Modelos econômicos
Teoria bayesiana de decisão estatística
Aprendizado do computador
Mineração de dados (Computação)
Reconhecimento de padrões
title_short Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
title_full Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
title_fullStr Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
title_full_unstemmed Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
title_sort Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia
author Colla, Ernesto Coutinho
author_facet Colla, Ernesto Coutinho
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Picchetti, Paulo
Stern, Julio Michael
Cozman, Fábio Gagliardi
Tsuchida, Marcos H.
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Colla, Ernesto Coutinho
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Orellano, Verônica Inês Fernandez
contributor_str_mv Orellano, Verônica Inês Fernandez
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Pattern recognition
Machine learning
Data mining
topic Pattern recognition
Machine learning
Data mining
Modelos gráficos probabilísticos
Redes bayesianas
Risco-país
Modelos macroeconômicos
Economia
Modelos econômicos
Teoria bayesiana de decisão estatística
Aprendizado do computador
Mineração de dados (Computação)
Reconhecimento de padrões
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Modelos gráficos probabilísticos
Redes bayesianas
Risco-país
Modelos macroeconômicos
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Modelos econômicos
Teoria bayesiana de decisão estatística
Aprendizado do computador
Mineração de dados (Computação)
Reconhecimento de padrões
description We develop a probabilistic model using Machine Learning tools to classify the trend of the Brazilian country risk expressed EMBI+ (Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus). The main goal is verify if Machine Learning is useful to build economic models which could be used as reasoning tools under uncertainty. Specifically we use Bayesian Networks to perform pattern recognition in observed macroeconomics and financial data. The results are promising. We get the main expected theoretical relationship between country risk and economic variables, as well as international economic context and market expectations.
publishDate 2009
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2009-06-29
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2010-04-20T21:50:53Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv COLLA, Ernesto Coutinho. Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia. Tese (Doutorado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/4261
identifier_str_mv COLLA, Ernesto Coutinho. Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia. Tese (Doutorado em Economia de Empresas) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2009.
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/4261
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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