Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484 |
Resumo: | Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role. |
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Marçal, Emerson FernandesZimmermann, Beatrice AlineMendonça, Diogo de PrinceMerlin, Giovanni TondinSimões, Oscar RodriguesEscolas::EESP2016-05-06T12:20:07Z2016-05-06T12:20:07Z2016-05-05TD 416http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.engEESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 416Economic growthLinkagesGlobal VAREconomiaRelações econômicas internacionaisAssessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regressioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdfTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdfapplication/pdf1773339https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/fed83a1c-0dad-4940-b629-12384f8869e4/download7ab8b34efb1c7c956a76a6c130c935e5MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/04907e8d-fd25-4236-8fd1-d5cec560d6ad/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdf.txtTD 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
title |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
spellingShingle |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression Marçal, Emerson Fernandes Economic growth Linkages Global VAR Economia Relações econômicas internacionais |
title_short |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
title_full |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
title_fullStr |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
title_sort |
Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression |
author |
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes |
author_facet |
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline Mendonça, Diogo de Prince Merlin, Giovanni Tondin Simões, Oscar Rodrigues |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline Mendonça, Diogo de Prince Merlin, Giovanni Tondin Simões, Oscar Rodrigues |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv |
Escolas::EESP |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline Mendonça, Diogo de Prince Merlin, Giovanni Tondin Simões, Oscar Rodrigues |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Economic growth Linkages Global VAR |
topic |
Economic growth Linkages Global VAR Economia Relações econômicas internacionais |
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv |
Economia |
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv |
Relações econômicas internacionais |
description |
Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2016-05-06T12:20:07Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2016-05-06T12:20:07Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2016-05-05 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484 |
dc.identifier.sici.none.fl_str_mv |
TD 416 |
identifier_str_mv |
TD 416 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv |
EESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 416 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) instacron:FGV |
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