Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Data de Publicação: 2016
Outros Autores: Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline, Mendonça, Diogo de Prince, Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484
Resumo: Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.
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spelling Marçal, Emerson FernandesZimmermann, Beatrice AlineMendonça, Diogo de PrinceMerlin, Giovanni TondinSimões, Oscar RodriguesEscolas::EESP2016-05-06T12:20:07Z2016-05-06T12:20:07Z2016-05-05TD 416http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.engEESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 416Economic growthLinkagesGlobal VAREconomiaRelações econômicas internacionaisAssessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regressioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlereponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdfTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdfapplication/pdf1773339https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/fed83a1c-0dad-4940-b629-12384f8869e4/download7ab8b34efb1c7c956a76a6c130c935e5MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84707https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/04907e8d-fd25-4236-8fd1-d5cec560d6ad/downloaddfb340242cced38a6cca06c627998fa1MD52TEXTTD 416 - CEMAP_08.pdf.txtTD 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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
title Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
spellingShingle Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Economic growth
Linkages
Global VAR
Economia
Relações econômicas internacionais
title_short Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
title_full Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
title_fullStr Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
title_full_unstemmed Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
title_sort Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression
author Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
author_facet Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline
Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
author_role author
author2 Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline
Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline
Mendonça, Diogo de Prince
Merlin, Giovanni Tondin
Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Economic growth
Linkages
Global VAR
topic Economic growth
Linkages
Global VAR
Economia
Relações econômicas internacionais
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Relações econômicas internacionais
description Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2016-05-06T12:20:07Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2016-05-06T12:20:07Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2016-05-05
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.sici.none.fl_str_mv TD 416
identifier_str_mv TD 416
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16484
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries.por.fl_str_mv EESP - Textos para Discussão;TD 416
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