Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
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Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/375 |
Resumo: | The auto industry seems to face major changes and transformations. The sector has always been characterized by being very dynamic and pioneering in the development of new technologies, be they related to the production system or product. The pillar of this industry was built under the model of private ownership of vehicles. This scenario began to change most notably from the economic crisis of 2008 with the emergence and popularization of asset sharing platforms, which can shift vehicle ownership around the vehicle as a service. This paper focus on the future of the vehicle distribution industry in Brazil. The objective is to explore and analyze possible prospective scenarios for this industry in the country in 2040. Four scenarios were developed around the driving forces technological development and consumer behavior - Democratization of mobility, Consumer turnaround, Nothing new and Where we will stop. The study concludes that there is no doubt that the evolution of the industry is occurring and the disruption coming. While there is no certainty in any future forecast, it is quite clear that today's dealership model - based primarily on selling one vehicle at a time to individuals and then servicing those cars in their workshops - will not leave unscathed in a world of sharing, electrified, connected and autonomous vehicles. |
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Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040Cenários Prospectivos para a Competitividade do Varejo de Veículos no Brasil em 2040Automotive industryVehicles’ distributionProspective scenariosIndústria automobilísticaDistribuição de veículosCenários prospectivosThe auto industry seems to face major changes and transformations. The sector has always been characterized by being very dynamic and pioneering in the development of new technologies, be they related to the production system or product. The pillar of this industry was built under the model of private ownership of vehicles. This scenario began to change most notably from the economic crisis of 2008 with the emergence and popularization of asset sharing platforms, which can shift vehicle ownership around the vehicle as a service. This paper focus on the future of the vehicle distribution industry in Brazil. The objective is to explore and analyze possible prospective scenarios for this industry in the country in 2040. Four scenarios were developed around the driving forces technological development and consumer behavior - Democratization of mobility, Consumer turnaround, Nothing new and Where we will stop. The study concludes that there is no doubt that the evolution of the industry is occurring and the disruption coming. While there is no certainty in any future forecast, it is quite clear that today's dealership model - based primarily on selling one vehicle at a time to individuals and then servicing those cars in their workshops - will not leave unscathed in a world of sharing, electrified, connected and autonomous vehicles.A indústria automobilística parece diante de grandes mudanças e transformações. O setor sempre se caracterizou por ser muito dinâmico e pioneiro no desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias, sejam elas de caráter produtivo ou de produto. O pilar desta indústria foi construído sob o modelo de propriedade particular dos veículos. Este cenário começou a mudar mais notadamente a partir da crise econômica de 2008 com o surgimento e popularização de plataformas de compartilhamento de bens, que podem mudar a propriedade veicular em torno do veículo como um serviço. O objetivo deste trabalho é explorar e analisar possíveis cenários prospectivos para a indústria de distribuição de verículos no país em 2040.Foram desenvolvidos quatro cenários em torno das forças motrizes desenvolvimento tecnológico e comportamento do consumidor - Democratização da mobilidade, A vez do consumidor, Nada de novo e Onde vamos parar. O trabalho conclui que a evolução da indústria está ocorrendo e a disrupção chegando. Embora não haja certeza em nenhuma previsão futura, é bastante claro que o modelo de concessionária de hoje - baseado principalmente em vender um veículo de cada vez para indivíduos e depois atender a esses carros em suas oficinas - não sairá ileso em um mundo de compartilhamento, veículos eletrificados, conectados e autônomos.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2018-05-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/37510.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.375Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 10 No. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 238-269Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 10 n. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 238-2692175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/375/422Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessda Rocha, MarceloSarfati, Gilberto2019-06-18T18:52:12Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/375Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2019-06-18T18:52:12Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 Cenários Prospectivos para a Competitividade do Varejo de Veículos no Brasil em 2040 |
title |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
spellingShingle |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 da Rocha, Marcelo Automotive industry Vehicles’ distribution Prospective scenarios Indústria automobilística Distribuição de veículos Cenários prospectivos |
title_short |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
title_full |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
title_fullStr |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
title_sort |
Prospective Scenarios for Automotive Retail’s Competitivenes in Brazil in 2040 |
author |
da Rocha, Marcelo |
author_facet |
da Rocha, Marcelo Sarfati, Gilberto |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sarfati, Gilberto |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
da Rocha, Marcelo Sarfati, Gilberto |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Automotive industry Vehicles’ distribution Prospective scenarios Indústria automobilística Distribuição de veículos Cenários prospectivos |
topic |
Automotive industry Vehicles’ distribution Prospective scenarios Indústria automobilística Distribuição de veículos Cenários prospectivos |
description |
The auto industry seems to face major changes and transformations. The sector has always been characterized by being very dynamic and pioneering in the development of new technologies, be they related to the production system or product. The pillar of this industry was built under the model of private ownership of vehicles. This scenario began to change most notably from the economic crisis of 2008 with the emergence and popularization of asset sharing platforms, which can shift vehicle ownership around the vehicle as a service. This paper focus on the future of the vehicle distribution industry in Brazil. The objective is to explore and analyze possible prospective scenarios for this industry in the country in 2040. Four scenarios were developed around the driving forces technological development and consumer behavior - Democratization of mobility, Consumer turnaround, Nothing new and Where we will stop. The study concludes that there is no doubt that the evolution of the industry is occurring and the disruption coming. While there is no certainty in any future forecast, it is quite clear that today's dealership model - based primarily on selling one vehicle at a time to individuals and then servicing those cars in their workshops - will not leave unscathed in a world of sharing, electrified, connected and autonomous vehicles. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-05-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/375 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.375 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/375 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2018.v10i2.375 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/375/422 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 10 No. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 238-269 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 10 n. 2 (2018): Future Studies Research Journal; 238-269 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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