CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2012 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77 |
Resumo: | Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment. |
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CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHESOS ESTUDOS DO FUTURO PODEM REALMENTE PREVER O FUTURO? UMA ANÁLISE RETROSPECTIVA DE DUAS ABORDAGENS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v3i2.77Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment.No campo da Administração de Empresas, os Estudos do Futuro figuram como instrumento valioso para auxiliar a desenvolver o Planejamento Estratégico, ao apontar as mudanças induzidas pelo meio ambiente nas políticas, metas e ações das empresas. As empresas e suas lideranças podem descobrir recursos e energias quando adquirem uma visão de mundo holística e de longo prazo, o que lhes permite prognosticar, planejar e lidar com as mudanças que afetarão o futuro. Neste trabalho objetiva-se examinar a atualidade de dois exemplares de Estudos do Futuro, comparando as tendências previstas e suas evidências atuais. Na análise foram focalizados dois estudos com abordagens metodológicas distintas: um estudo quantitativo, analisado por Mario Henrique Simonsen, e outro, qualitativo, de Alvin Toffler, apoiado na análise de tendências e fenômenos sociais, econômicos, tecnológicos e políticos. Evidências relativas às tendências projetadas foram levantadas por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica de dados secundários macroeconômicos e socioculturais. Com base nessa análise, discutem-se as limitações dos métodos baseados em projeções e as vantagens de utilizar abordagens qualitativas ou mistas quando o horizonte de previsão envolve o longo prazo. Vale sinalizar que o propósito dos Estudos do Futuro não é vaticinar com absoluta precisão como será o amanhã, mas fornecer indicadores para que decisões estratégicas adequadas, em ambientes incertos e turbulentos, possam ser tomadas hoje.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2012-01-20info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/7710.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i2.77Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 3 No. 2 (2011): Future Studies Research Journal; 3-33Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 3 n. 2 (2011): Future Studies Research Journal; 3-332175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAengporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77/135https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77/134Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGalhanone, Renata FernandesToledo, Geraldo LucianoMazzon, José Afonso2018-07-26T19:28:43Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/77Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2018-07-26T19:28:43Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES OS ESTUDOS DO FUTURO PODEM REALMENTE PREVER O FUTURO? UMA ANÁLISE RETROSPECTIVA DE DUAS ABORDAGENS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v3i2.77 |
title |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
spellingShingle |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES Galhanone, Renata Fernandes |
title_short |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
title_full |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
title_fullStr |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
title_full_unstemmed |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
title_sort |
CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES |
author |
Galhanone, Renata Fernandes |
author_facet |
Galhanone, Renata Fernandes Toledo, Geraldo Luciano Mazzon, José Afonso |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Toledo, Geraldo Luciano Mazzon, José Afonso |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Galhanone, Renata Fernandes Toledo, Geraldo Luciano Mazzon, José Afonso |
description |
Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment. |
publishDate |
2012 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2012-01-20 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i2.77 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i2.77 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77/135 https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/77/134 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 3 No. 2 (2011): Future Studies Research Journal; 3-33 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 3 n. 2 (2011): Future Studies Research Journal; 3-33 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
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