THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng por |
Título da fonte: | Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
Texto Completo: | https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58 |
Resumo: | Every organization needs to balance their production capacities with demand. The role of demand forecasting is to assist in the organization's strategic planning; this process allows administrators to anticipate the future and plot an appropriate course of action. On its own, however, a system of demand forecasting is not enough. It is the quality of information obtained by this system which enables the organization to achieve better operational planning. In this context, this paper presents case study research to: (a) define the quantitative model to forecast demand with greater accuracy; and (b) to verify the influence of accuracy in demand forecasting on financial performance. This is an ex-post facto descriptive inquiry with a time series in which we made use of historical data from five groups of products over the period 2004–2008. The results suggest that if a company employs the ARIMA model for groups A, B, and E; the Holt model for group D; and the Winter model for group C, revenues will increase by approximately $1,600,000 annually. Key-words: Accuracy. Demand forecasting. Financial performance. |
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THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRYA ACURACIDADE DOS MODELOS DE PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA COMO FATOR CRÍTICO PARA O DESEMPENHO FINANCEIRO NA INDÚSTRIA DE ALIMENTOS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i2.58Every organization needs to balance their production capacities with demand. The role of demand forecasting is to assist in the organization's strategic planning; this process allows administrators to anticipate the future and plot an appropriate course of action. On its own, however, a system of demand forecasting is not enough. It is the quality of information obtained by this system which enables the organization to achieve better operational planning. In this context, this paper presents case study research to: (a) define the quantitative model to forecast demand with greater accuracy; and (b) to verify the influence of accuracy in demand forecasting on financial performance. This is an ex-post facto descriptive inquiry with a time series in which we made use of historical data from five groups of products over the period 2004–2008. The results suggest that if a company employs the ARIMA model for groups A, B, and E; the Holt model for group D; and the Winter model for group C, revenues will increase by approximately $1,600,000 annually. Key-words: Accuracy. Demand forecasting. Financial performance. Toda organização precisa saber dimensionar suas capacidades produtivas de modo que estas se encaixem perfeitamente com as demandas. O papel da previsão de demanda é fornecer subsídios para o planejamento estratégico da organização. Este processo permite que os administradores antecipem o futuro e planejem de forma mais conveniente as suas ações. Não basta, entretanto, ter um sistema de previsão de demanda. É a qualidade da informação obtida por este sistema que capacita a organização a obter melhor planejamento das operações. Dentro deste contexto, este trabalho apresenta um estudo de caso com os objetivos de: (a) definir o modelo quantitativo de previsão de demanda de maior grau de acurácia e (b) verificar a influência da acuracidade da previsão de demanda no desempenho financeiro da organização. Trata-se de uma pesquisa descritiva ex-post fact em que foram utilizados dados históricos de demanda de cinco grupos de produto, no período de 2004 a 2008. Os resultados demonstram que se a empresa empregasse o modelo ARIMA para os grupos A, B e E, o modelo de Holt para o grupo D e o modelo de Winter para o grupo C, o faturamento poderia ser aumentado em, aproximadamente, dois milhões e oitocentos mil reais anuais.Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies2010-12-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPeer-reviewed Articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/5810.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i2.58Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 2 No. 2 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 83-107Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 2 n. 2 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 83-1072175-5825reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinstname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)instacron:FIAengporhttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58/105https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58/95Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessDa Veiga, Cássia Rita PereiraDa Veiga, Claudimar PereiraDuclós, Luiz Carlos2018-07-19T15:46:01Zoai:ojs.future.emnuvens.com.br:article/58Revistahttps://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/oai2175-58252175-5825opendoar:2018-07-19T15:46:01Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY A ACURACIDADE DOS MODELOS DE PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA COMO FATOR CRÍTICO PARA O DESEMPENHO FINANCEIRO NA INDÚSTRIA DE ALIMENTOS DOI:10.7444/fsrj.v2i2.58 |
title |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
spellingShingle |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY Da Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira |
title_short |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
title_full |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
title_fullStr |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
title_full_unstemmed |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
title_sort |
THE ACCURACY OF DEMAND FORECAST MODELS AS A CRITICAL FACTOR IN THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY |
author |
Da Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira |
author_facet |
Da Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira Da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Duclós, Luiz Carlos |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Duclós, Luiz Carlos |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Da Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira Da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Duclós, Luiz Carlos |
description |
Every organization needs to balance their production capacities with demand. The role of demand forecasting is to assist in the organization's strategic planning; this process allows administrators to anticipate the future and plot an appropriate course of action. On its own, however, a system of demand forecasting is not enough. It is the quality of information obtained by this system which enables the organization to achieve better operational planning. In this context, this paper presents case study research to: (a) define the quantitative model to forecast demand with greater accuracy; and (b) to verify the influence of accuracy in demand forecasting on financial performance. This is an ex-post facto descriptive inquiry with a time series in which we made use of historical data from five groups of products over the period 2004–2008. The results suggest that if a company employs the ARIMA model for groups A, B, and E; the Holt model for group D; and the Winter model for group C, revenues will increase by approximately $1,600,000 annually. Key-words: Accuracy. Demand forecasting. Financial performance. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010-12-07 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58 10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i2.58 |
url |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i2.58 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng por |
language |
eng por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58/105 https://www.revistafuture.org/FSRJ/article/view/58/95 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2011 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies; Vol. 2 No. 2 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 83-107 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies [FSRJ]; v. 2 n. 2 (2010): Future Studies Research Journal; 83-107 2175-5825 reponame:Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies instname:Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) instacron:FIA |
instname_str |
Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
instacron_str |
FIA |
institution |
FIA |
reponame_str |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
collection |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies - Fundação Instituto de Administração (FIA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
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