The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
Texto Completo: | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012 |
Resumo: | We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services. |
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
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The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USAinfluenza A (H1N1)travelersrisk estimationmathematical modelsWe estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde2010-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.105 n.2 2010reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruzinstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruzinstacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/S0074-02762010000200012info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMassad,EduardoBurattini,Marcelo NascimentoCoutinho,Francisco AntonioStruchiner,Cláudio Joséeng2020-04-25T17:50:45Zhttp://www.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php0074-02761678-8060opendoar:null2020-04-26 02:16:50.824Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruztrue |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
title |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
spellingShingle |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA Massad,Eduardo influenza A (H1N1) travelers risk estimation mathematical models |
title_short |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
title_full |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
title_fullStr |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
title_full_unstemmed |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
title_sort |
The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA |
author |
Massad,Eduardo |
author_facet |
Massad,Eduardo Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento Coutinho,Francisco Antonio Struchiner,Cláudio José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento Coutinho,Francisco Antonio Struchiner,Cláudio José |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Massad,Eduardo Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento Coutinho,Francisco Antonio Struchiner,Cláudio José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
influenza A (H1N1) travelers risk estimation mathematical models |
topic |
influenza A (H1N1) travelers risk estimation mathematical models |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services. |
description |
We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010-03-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012 |
url |
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/S0074-02762010000200012 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.105 n.2 2010 reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz instacron:FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1669937706924244992 |