The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Massad,Eduardo
Data de Publicação: 2010
Outros Autores: Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento, Coutinho,Francisco Antonio, Struchiner,Cláudio José
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Texto Completo: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012
Resumo: We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.
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spelling The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USAinfluenza A (H1N1)travelersrisk estimationmathematical modelsWe estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde2010-03-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.105 n.2 2010reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruzinstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruzinstacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/S0074-02762010000200012info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMassad,EduardoBurattini,Marcelo NascimentoCoutinho,Francisco AntonioStruchiner,Cláudio Joséeng2020-04-25T17:50:45Zhttp://www.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php0074-02761678-8060opendoar:null2020-04-26 02:16:50.824Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruztrue
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
title The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
spellingShingle The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
Massad,Eduardo
influenza A (H1N1)
travelers
risk estimation
mathematical models
title_short The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
title_full The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
title_fullStr The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
title_full_unstemmed The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
title_sort The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
author Massad,Eduardo
author_facet Massad,Eduardo
Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento
Coutinho,Francisco Antonio
Struchiner,Cláudio José
author_role author
author2 Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento
Coutinho,Francisco Antonio
Struchiner,Cláudio José
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Massad,Eduardo
Burattini,Marcelo Nascimento
Coutinho,Francisco Antonio
Struchiner,Cláudio José
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv influenza A (H1N1)
travelers
risk estimation
mathematical models
topic influenza A (H1N1)
travelers
risk estimation
mathematical models
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.
description We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010-03-01
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012
url http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000200012
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 10.1590/S0074-02762010000200012
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz v.105 n.2 2010
reponame:Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
instacron:FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
collection Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
repository.name.fl_str_mv Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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