Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carlos Garcia Filho
Data de Publicação: 2020
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Cadernos de Saúde Pública
Texto Completo: https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470
Resumo: We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.
id FIOCRUZ-5_7c53600a12bc6ab4caa9aee9212a25ae
oai_identifier_str oai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/7470
network_acronym_str FIOCRUZ-5
network_name_str Cadernos de Saúde Pública
repository_id_str
spelling Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2Infectious Disease TransmissionBiological ModelsSevere Acute Respiratory SyndromeWe sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.El objetivo fue evaluar las metas alcanzadas en la reducción de las tasas de contacto en los hogares, así como de contactos cercanos, para proporcionar recomendaciones preventivas durante la pandemia de coronavirus. Aplicamos un modelo basado en agentes, con el fin de simular la transmisión dinámica del SARS-CoV-2 dentro del hogar o con contactos cercanos, a través de una red social de 150 nodos. No existe una gran diferencia en el total de personas infectadas en las modificaciones, respecto al número de enlaces por nodo, en el caso de las redes con un promedio de links por nodo superior a tres. En el caso de los seis nodos, el total de infectados es 149,85; con cinco nodos, 148,97; y con cuatro nodos, 141,57. Por otro lado, con tres nodos, el total de infectados es 82,39, con dos nodos, 13,95; y con un nodo, 2,96. El modelo señala el consiguiente problema, si las medidas de distanciamiento social no se suspenden escalonadamente, y se realiza una estrecha vigilancia de los casos localizados, puesto que la relación entre el promedio de enlaces por nodo y el número de personas infectadas parece que tiene forma de “s” y no es lineal.O estudo teve como objetivos, avaliar as metas de redução da taxa de contatos domiciliares e próximos, além de fornecer recomendações preventivas durante a pandemia do novo coronavírus. Foi aplicado um modelo baseado em agentes para simular a dinâmica da transmissão do SARS-CoV-2 dentro dos domicílios ou entre contatos próximos, através de uma rede social com 150 nós. Não houve uma diferença grande no número total de pessoas infectadas de acordo com as modificações no número de elos por nó em redes com mais de três elos por nó em média.. Para seis nós, o total de infectados é 149,85; para cinco nós, 148,97 e para quatro nós, 141,57. Por outro lado, para três nós, o total de infectados é 82,39, para dois nós, 13,95 e para um nó, 2,96. O modelo indica uma possível armadilha, caso as medidas de distanciamento social não sejam suspendidas de maneira escalonada, com vigilância rigorosa de casos, uma vez que a relação entre a média de elos por nó e o número pessoas infectadas parece apresentar uma forma em “s”, e não linear.Reports in Public HealthCadernos de Saúde Pública2020-06-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470Reports in Public Health; Vol. 36 No. 5 (2020): MayCadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 36 n. 5 (2020): Maio1678-44640102-311Xreponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZenghttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470/16542https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470/16543Carlos Garcia Filhoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-03-06T15:29:57Zoai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/7470Revistahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csphttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/oaicadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2024-03-06T13:08:35.143744Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)true
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
title Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
spellingShingle Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
Carlos Garcia Filho
Infectious Disease Transmission
Biological Models
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
title_short Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
title_full Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
title_fullStr Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
title_full_unstemmed Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
title_sort Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2
author Carlos Garcia Filho
author_facet Carlos Garcia Filho
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carlos Garcia Filho
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Infectious Disease Transmission
Biological Models
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
topic Infectious Disease Transmission
Biological Models
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
description We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-05
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470
url https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470/16542
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7470/16543
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Reports in Public Health
Cadernos de Saúde Pública
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Reports in Public Health
Cadernos de Saúde Pública
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Reports in Public Health; Vol. 36 No. 5 (2020): May
Cadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 36 n. 5 (2020): Maio
1678-4464
0102-311X
reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Cadernos de Saúde Pública
collection Cadernos de Saúde Pública
repository.name.fl_str_mv Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br
_version_ 1798943392424525824

Registros relacionados