Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995 |
Resumo: | This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer. |
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Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictionsLung NeoplasmsCost of IllnessAir PollutionThis study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia a largo plazo de la carga de morbilidad del cáncer de pulmón atribuible a la contaminación del aire doméstico en la población femenina china de 1990 a 2019 y hacer predicciones para la próxima década. Según los datos de la Carga Global de Enfermedad de 2019 (GBD 2019), se utilizó el modelo de regresión joinpoint para reflejar la tendencia temporal de la carga de morbilidad pulmonar atribuible a la contaminación del aire doméstico y un modelo autorregresivo integrado de media móvil (ARIMA) para predecir la carga de morbilidad durante la próxima década. De 1990 a 2019, las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad y años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) de la población femenina china fueron más altas que las tasas mundiales, y la brecha debida al radón residencial aumentó con el tiempo. La carga de morbilidad atribuible a los combustibles sólidos mostró una significativa tendencia decreciente, mientras que la del radón residencial aumentó ligeramente, pero en niveles inferiores a la anterior. La carga de morbilidad aumentó con la edad, y las tasas de edad máxima de AVAD cambiaron de 70 < 75 años en 1990 a 75 < 80 años en 2019. El modelo predijo que la carga de morbilidad atribuible a los combustibles sólidos disminuirá gradualmente durante la próxima década, mientras que la carga de morbilidad por radón residencial aumentará gradualmente y superará la carga debida a los combustibles sólidos en 2023. El radón residencial se convertirá en un factor más importante de contaminación del aire doméstico que los combustibles sólidos en la próxima década para la población femenina china. Se necesitan intervenciones futuras dirigidas a la contaminación del aire doméstico para reducir la carga del cáncer de pulmón.O objetivo do texto foi analisar a tendência a longo prazo da carga da doença devida a câncer de pulmão atribuível à poluição atmosférica domiciliar na população feminina chinesa de 1990 a 2019 e fazer previsões para a próxima década. Com base nos dados da Carga Global de Doenças 2019 (GBD 2019), o modelo de regressão joinpoint foi utilizado para refletir a tendência temporal da carga da doença devida a câncer de pulmão atribuível à poluição atmosférica domiciliar e um modelo autorregressivo de média móvel integrada (ARIMA), para prevê-la na próxima década. Entre 1990 e 2019, as taxas de mortalidade padronizada por idade e esperança de vida corrigida pela incapacidade (DALYs) da população feminina chinesa foram maiores do que as taxas globais e a diferença devido à exposição residencial a radônio aumentou ao longo do tempo. A carga da doença atribuível a combustíveis sólidos mostrou uma tendência significativa à queda, enquanto aquela devida à exposição residencial a radônio aumentou ligeiramente no geral, mas permanece menor que a primeira. A carga da doença aumentou com a idade, e a idade máxima das taxas de DALYs passou de 70 < 75 anos em 1990 para 75 < 80 anos em 2019. Nosso modelo previu que a carga da doença atribuível aos combustíveis sólidos diminuirá gradualmente na próxima década, enquanto a carga da doença devida ao radônio aumentará paulatinamente e superará a carga devida aos combustíveis sólidos em 2023. A exposição residencial ao radônio se tornará um fator mais importante à poluição atmosférica domiciliar para a população feminina chinesa do que os combustíveis sólidos na próxima década. Futuras intervenções direcionadas à poluição atmosférica domiciliar são necessárias para reduzir a carga do câncer de pulmão.Reports in Public HealthCadernos de Saúde Pública2022-10-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995Reports in Public Health; Vol. 38 No. 9 (2022): SeptemberCadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 38 n. 9 (2022): Setembro1678-44640102-311Xreponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZenghttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995/17906https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995/17907Zhixue LiYan MaYing Xuinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-03-06T15:30:17Zoai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/7995Revistahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csphttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/oaicadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2024-03-06T13:09:09.618634Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
title |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
spellingShingle |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions Zhixue Li Lung Neoplasms Cost of Illness Air Pollution |
title_short |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
title_full |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
title_fullStr |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
title_sort |
Burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population: trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions |
author |
Zhixue Li |
author_facet |
Zhixue Li Yan Ma Ying Xu |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Yan Ma Ying Xu |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Zhixue Li Yan Ma Ying Xu |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Lung Neoplasms Cost of Illness Air Pollution |
topic |
Lung Neoplasms Cost of Illness Air Pollution |
description |
This study analyzes the long-term trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution in the Chinese female population, from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions for the next decade. Based the data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2019), the joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of the burden of lung cancer attributable to household air pollution, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of disease over the next decade. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of the Chinese female population were higher than the global rates, and the gap due to residential radon increased over time. The burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels has shown a significant downward trend while that due to residential radon has increased slightly overall, but remains lower than the former. The burden of lung cancer increased with age, and the peak age of DALYs rates changed from 70 < 75 years in 1990 to 75 < 80 years in 2019. The model predicted that the burden of lung cancer attributable to solid fuels will gradually decrease over the next decade, whereas the burden of lung cancer due to residential radon will gradually increase and surpass the burden due to solid fuels in 2023. Residential radon will become a more important factor of household air pollution than solid fuels in the next decade for the Chinese female population. Future interventions targeted at household air pollution are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-10-10 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995 |
url |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995/17906 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7995/17907 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health; Vol. 38 No. 9 (2022): September Cadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 38 n. 9 (2022): Setembro 1678-4464 0102-311X reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
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1798943396628267008 |