Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2002 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786 |
Resumo: | The classic risk factors for developing coronary heart disease (CHD) explain less than 50% of the decrease in mortality observed since 1950. The transition currently under way, from the degenerative to the infectious-inflammatory paradigm, requires a new causal interpretation of temporal trends. The following is an ecological study based on data from the United States showing that in men and women an association between the age distribution of mortality due to influenza and pneumonia (I&P) associated with the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 in the 10-49-year age bracket and the distribution of CHD mortality from 1920 to 1985 in survivors from the corresponding birth cohorts. It further shows a significant negative correlation (r = -0.68, p = 0.042) between excess mortality from I&P accumulated in epidemics from 1931 to 1940 (used as indicator for persistent circulation of H1N1 virus combined with vulnerability to infection) and the order of the beginning in the decline in CHD mortality in nine geographic divisions in the United States. In light of current biological knowledge, the data suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic and the subsequent epidemics up to 1957 might have played a determinant role in the epidemic of CHD mortality registered in the 20th century. |
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Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemicMortalityMyocardial IschemiaInfluenzaPneumoniaThe classic risk factors for developing coronary heart disease (CHD) explain less than 50% of the decrease in mortality observed since 1950. The transition currently under way, from the degenerative to the infectious-inflammatory paradigm, requires a new causal interpretation of temporal trends. The following is an ecological study based on data from the United States showing that in men and women an association between the age distribution of mortality due to influenza and pneumonia (I&P) associated with the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 in the 10-49-year age bracket and the distribution of CHD mortality from 1920 to 1985 in survivors from the corresponding birth cohorts. It further shows a significant negative correlation (r = -0.68, p = 0.042) between excess mortality from I&P accumulated in epidemics from 1931 to 1940 (used as indicator for persistent circulation of H1N1 virus combined with vulnerability to infection) and the order of the beginning in the decline in CHD mortality in nine geographic divisions in the United States. In light of current biological knowledge, the data suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic and the subsequent epidemics up to 1957 might have played a determinant role in the epidemic of CHD mortality registered in the 20th century.Os fatores de risco clássicos para o desenvolvimento de doença isquêmica do coração (DIC) explicam menos de 50% da queda na mortalidade observada desde 1950. A transição em curso, do paradigma degenerativo para o inflamatório/infeccioso, requer nova interpretação causal das tendências temporais. Este é um estudo ecológico, baseado em dados dos Estados Unidos, que mostra, em homens e mulheres, uma associação entre a distribuição etária da mortalidade por influenza e pneumonia (I&P) associada à pandemia de influenza de 1918-1919 na faixa dos 10 aos 49 anos e a distribuição da mortalidade por DIC, entre 1920 e 1985, em sobreviventes das coortes de nascimento correspondentes. Mostra ainda uma correlação negativa significativa (r = -0,68, p = 0,042) entre o excesso de mortalidade por I&P acumulado em epidemias entre 1931-1940 (utilizado como indicador da persistência da circulação de vírus H1N1 aliada à vulnerabilidade à infecção) e a ordem do início do declínio na mortalidade por DIC, em nove divisões geográficas dos Estados Unidos. Os dados sugerem, à luz do conhecimento biológico atual, que a pandemia de influenza de 1918 e as que se seguiram até 1957, pudesse ter tido papel determinante na epidemia de mortalidade por DIC registrada no século XX.Reports in Public HealthCadernos de Saúde Pública2002-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786Reports in Public Health; Vol. 18 No. 3 (2002): March/AprilCadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 18 n. 3 (2002): Maio/Junho1678-44640102-311Xreponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZenghttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786/3560https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786/3561Azambuja, Maria Inês ReinertDuncan, Bruce B.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-03-06T15:26:38Zoai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/1786Revistahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csphttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/oaicadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2024-03-06T13:02:07.763370Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
title |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
spellingShingle |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic Azambuja, Maria Inês Reinert Mortality Myocardial Ischemia Influenza Pneumonia |
title_short |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
title_full |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
title_fullStr |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
title_sort |
Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic |
author |
Azambuja, Maria Inês Reinert |
author_facet |
Azambuja, Maria Inês Reinert Duncan, Bruce B. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Duncan, Bruce B. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Azambuja, Maria Inês Reinert Duncan, Bruce B. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Mortality Myocardial Ischemia Influenza Pneumonia |
topic |
Mortality Myocardial Ischemia Influenza Pneumonia |
description |
The classic risk factors for developing coronary heart disease (CHD) explain less than 50% of the decrease in mortality observed since 1950. The transition currently under way, from the degenerative to the infectious-inflammatory paradigm, requires a new causal interpretation of temporal trends. The following is an ecological study based on data from the United States showing that in men and women an association between the age distribution of mortality due to influenza and pneumonia (I&P) associated with the influenza pandemic in 1918-1919 in the 10-49-year age bracket and the distribution of CHD mortality from 1920 to 1985 in survivors from the corresponding birth cohorts. It further shows a significant negative correlation (r = -0.68, p = 0.042) between excess mortality from I&P accumulated in epidemics from 1931 to 1940 (used as indicator for persistent circulation of H1N1 virus combined with vulnerability to infection) and the order of the beginning in the decline in CHD mortality in nine geographic divisions in the United States. In light of current biological knowledge, the data suggest that the 1918 influenza pandemic and the subsequent epidemics up to 1957 might have played a determinant role in the epidemic of CHD mortality registered in the 20th century. |
publishDate |
2002 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2002-06-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786 |
url |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786/3560 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/1786/3561 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health; Vol. 18 No. 3 (2002): March/April Cadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 18 n. 3 (2002): Maio/Junho 1678-4464 0102-311X reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
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