Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000404001 |
Resumo: | This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates. |
id |
FIOCRUZ-5_bdfee6e1470372ce1eb36e83ce7be698 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:scielo:S0102-311X2022000404001 |
network_acronym_str |
FIOCRUZ-5 |
network_name_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in BrazilFertiliyLive BirthCOVID-19Zika VirusPopulation EstimatesThis study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz2022-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000404001Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.38 n.4 2022reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZ10.1590/0102-311xen230621info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMarteleto,Leticia JunqueiraSereno,Luiz Gustavo FernandesCoutinho,Raquel ZanattaDondero,MollyAlves,Sandra ValongueiroLloyd,RyanKoepp,Andreweng2022-04-26T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0102-311X2022000404001Revistahttp://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/csp/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpcadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2022-04-26T00:00Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
title |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil Marteleto,Leticia Junqueira Fertiliy Live Birth COVID-19 Zika Virus Population Estimates |
title_short |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
title_full |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
title_sort |
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil |
author |
Marteleto,Leticia Junqueira |
author_facet |
Marteleto,Leticia Junqueira Sereno,Luiz Gustavo Fernandes Coutinho,Raquel Zanatta Dondero,Molly Alves,Sandra Valongueiro Lloyd,Ryan Koepp,Andrew |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sereno,Luiz Gustavo Fernandes Coutinho,Raquel Zanatta Dondero,Molly Alves,Sandra Valongueiro Lloyd,Ryan Koepp,Andrew |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Marteleto,Leticia Junqueira Sereno,Luiz Gustavo Fernandes Coutinho,Raquel Zanatta Dondero,Molly Alves,Sandra Valongueiro Lloyd,Ryan Koepp,Andrew |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fertiliy Live Birth COVID-19 Zika Virus Population Estimates |
topic |
Fertiliy Live Birth COVID-19 Zika Virus Population Estimates |
description |
This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000404001 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2022000404001 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0102-311xen230621 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública v.38 n.4 2022 reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
_version_ |
1754115743143690240 |