Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng spa |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732 |
Resumo: | The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies. |
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Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear modelsMortalidad por cáncer pulmonar en Chile: tendencia y proyección a seis años con modelos lineales dinámicos bayesianosLung NeoplasmsBayes TheoremMortality RateHealth SurveillanceNeoplasias PulmonaresTeorema de BayesTasa de MortalidadVigilancia SanitariaThe objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.El objetivo fue analizar la tendencia de la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en Chile, durante el periodo 1990-2009 y proyectar estas tasas a seis años. La información de mortalidad fue obtenida del Ministerio de Salud de Chile. Para calcular las tasas se utilizaron las proyecciones de población según el Censo de 2002. Las tasas se estandarizaron usando la población mundial como referencia. Se ajustaron modelos lineales dinámicos bayesianos para estimar la tendencia entre 1990-2009 y proyectar el periodo 2010-2015. Durante el periodo se observa una reducción del 19,9% de la tasa de mortalidad en hombres, mientras que en mujeres, la tendencia es creciente con aumento de 28,4%. El modelo de segundo orden entregó un mejor ajuste en hombres y el de primer orden en mujeres. Entre 2010 y 2015, se mantiene la tendencia decreciente en hombres, en cambio se proyecta una estabilización en la tendencia de mortalidad por cáncer pulmonar en mujeres en Chile. Este tipo de análisis es útil para implementar sistemas de vigilancia epidemiológica y evaluar estrategias.O objetivo foi analisar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de pulmão no Chile, durante 1990-2009 e projetar estas taxas em seis anos. As informações sobre a mortalidade foram obtidas no Ministério da Saúde do Chile. Para calcular as taxas foram utilizadas projeções da população de acordo com o Censo de 2002. As taxas foram padronizadas utilizando-se a população mundial como referência. Modelos lineares dinâmicos bayesianos foram ajustados para estimar a tendência entre 1990-2009 e projetar o período 2010-2015. Durante o período, observa-se uma redução da taxa de mortalidade de 19,9% nos homens, entretanto nas mulheres a tendência é de crescimento, com o aumento de 28,4%. O modelo de segunda ordem deu um melhor ajuste para os homens e mulheres de primeira ordem. Entre 2010 e 2015, a tendência descendente é mantida entre os homens, no entanto, projetando uma tendência de estabilização da mortalidade por câncer de pulmão em mulheres no Chile. Este tipo de análise pode ser útil para implementar sistemas de vigilância epidemiológica e avaliar estratégias.Reports in Public HealthCadernos de Saúde Pública2015-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmltext/htmlapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732Reports in Public Health; Vol. 31 No. 9 (2015): SeptemberCadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 31 n. 9 (2015): Setembro1678-44640102-311Xreponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZengspahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11935https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11936https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11937https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11938Francisco Torres-AvilésTomás MoragaLoreto NúñezGloria Icazainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-03-06T15:28:54Zoai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/5732Revistahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csphttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/oaicadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2024-03-06T13:06:33.182936Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models Mortalidad por cáncer pulmonar en Chile: tendencia y proyección a seis años con modelos lineales dinámicos bayesianos |
title |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
spellingShingle |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models Francisco Torres-Avilés Lung Neoplasms Bayes Theorem Mortality Rate Health Surveillance Neoplasias Pulmonares Teorema de Bayes Tasa de Mortalidad Vigilancia Sanitaria |
title_short |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
title_full |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
title_fullStr |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
title_sort |
Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models |
author |
Francisco Torres-Avilés |
author_facet |
Francisco Torres-Avilés Tomás Moraga Loreto Núñez Gloria Icaza |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Tomás Moraga Loreto Núñez Gloria Icaza |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Francisco Torres-Avilés Tomás Moraga Loreto Núñez Gloria Icaza |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Lung Neoplasms Bayes Theorem Mortality Rate Health Surveillance Neoplasias Pulmonares Teorema de Bayes Tasa de Mortalidad Vigilancia Sanitaria |
topic |
Lung Neoplasms Bayes Theorem Mortality Rate Health Surveillance Neoplasias Pulmonares Teorema de Bayes Tasa de Mortalidad Vigilancia Sanitaria |
description |
The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732 |
url |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng spa |
language |
eng spa |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11935 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11936 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11937 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/5732/11938 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html text/html application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health; Vol. 31 No. 9 (2015): September Cadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 31 n. 9 (2015): Setembro 1678-4464 0102-311X reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
instname_str |
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
instacron_str |
FIOCRUZ |
institution |
FIOCRUZ |
reponame_str |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
collection |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
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1798943378719637504 |