Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
Texto Completo: | https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488 |
Resumo: | Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material. |
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Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemicCOVID-19Social DistanceEpidemiologic ModelsConsidering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.Demostramos mediante simulaciones numéricas que la denominada política de salud de aislamiento social vertical es ineficaz para contener la pandemia de COVID-19. Presentamos el modelo SEIR-Net para interacciones de grupo en una red social, como una evolución del clásico modelo matemático SEIR epidemics (Susceptibles-Expuestos-Infectados (sintomáticos y asintomáticos)-Removidos). En el modelo SEIR-Net, podemos simular contactos sociales entre grupos divididos por grupos de edad y analizar diferentes estrategias de distanciamiento social. En la política de aislamiento vertical, solamente se aísla a los ancianos, frente a la política de aislamiento horizontal, donde todos los grupos de edad se adhieren al aislamiento social. Estos dos escenarios se compararon a un escenario de control, en el que no se realiza ninguna intervención para aislar a la gente. El escenario de aislamiento vertical es casi tan malo, como el escenario donde no se aplica ningún tipo de aislamiento, tanto en términos del número de infectados, como en la aceleración del número de casos. Por otro lado, el aislamiento horizontal, si se aplica con la misma intensidad en todos los grupos de edad, reduce significativamente el número total de infectados y “aplana la curva de crecimiento de la enfermedad”. Nuestro análisis se realiza en la municipalidad de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil, pero conclusiones similares se pueden aplicar también a otras ciudades. En el material complementario se facilita la implementación del código del modelo en R-language.O artigo demonstra através de simulações numéricas que a política do chamado distanciamento social vertical é ineficaz para conter a pandemia da COVID-19. Os autores apresentam o modelo SEIR-Net para uma rede de interações entre grupos sociais, enquanto desdobramento do modelo matemático clássico para epidemias, chamado SEIR (Suscetíveis-Expostos-Infectados (sintomáticos e assintomáticos)-Removidos). No modelo SEIR-Net, pode-se simular contatos sociais entre grupos, divididos por faixas etárias, e analisar diferentes estratégias de distanciamento social. Na política de distanciamento vertical, apenas os idosos ficam distanciados, ao contrário da política de distanciamento horizontal, em que todas as faixas etárias aderem ao distanciamento. O artigo compara esses dois cenários a um cenário controle, sem nenhuma intervenção para distanciar as pessoas umas das outras. O cenário do distanciamento vertical é quase tão ruim quanto aquele sem nenhum distanciamento, em termos tanto do número de infectados quanto da aceleração do número de casos. Por outro lado, o distanciamento horizontal, desde que aplicado com a mesma intensidade a todos os grupos etários, reduz significativamente o número total de infectados e “achata a curva de crescimento da doença”. Nossa análise foi feita no Município de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil, mas conclusões semelhantes se aplicam igualmente a outras cidades. O material suplementar do artigo fornece detalhes sobre a implementação do código do modelo na linguagem R.Reports in Public HealthCadernos de Saúde Pública2020-05-18info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlapplication/pdfhttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488Reports in Public Health; Vol. 36 No. 5 (2020): MayCadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 36 n. 5 (2020): Maio1678-44640102-311Xreponame:Cadernos de Saúde Públicainstname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZenghttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488/16596https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488/16597Luiz Henrique DuczmalAlexandre Celestino Leite AlmeidaDenise Bulgarelli DuczmalClaudia Regina Lindgren AlvesFlávia Costa Oliveira MagalhãesMax Sousa de LimaIvair Ramos SilvaRicardo Hiroshi Caldeira Takahashiinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-03-06T15:29:58Zoai:ojs.teste-cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br:article/7488Revistahttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csphttps://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/oaicadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br1678-44640102-311Xopendoar:2024-03-06T13:08:36.691121Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
title |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
spellingShingle |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic Luiz Henrique Duczmal COVID-19 Social Distance Epidemiologic Models |
title_short |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort |
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic |
author |
Luiz Henrique Duczmal |
author_facet |
Luiz Henrique Duczmal Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida Denise Bulgarelli Duczmal Claudia Regina Lindgren Alves Flávia Costa Oliveira Magalhães Max Sousa de Lima Ivair Ramos Silva Ricardo Hiroshi Caldeira Takahashi |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida Denise Bulgarelli Duczmal Claudia Regina Lindgren Alves Flávia Costa Oliveira Magalhães Max Sousa de Lima Ivair Ramos Silva Ricardo Hiroshi Caldeira Takahashi |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Luiz Henrique Duczmal Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida Denise Bulgarelli Duczmal Claudia Regina Lindgren Alves Flávia Costa Oliveira Magalhães Max Sousa de Lima Ivair Ramos Silva Ricardo Hiroshi Caldeira Takahashi |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Social Distance Epidemiologic Models |
topic |
COVID-19 Social Distance Epidemiologic Models |
description |
Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-18 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488 |
url |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488/16596 https://cadernos.ensp.fiocruz.br/ojs/index.php/csp/article/view/7488/16597 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Reports in Public Health; Vol. 36 No. 5 (2020): May Cadernos de Saúde Pública; v. 36 n. 5 (2020): Maio 1678-4464 0102-311X reponame:Cadernos de Saúde Pública instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) instacron:FIOCRUZ |
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Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
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FIOCRUZ |
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FIOCRUZ |
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Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
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Cadernos de Saúde Pública |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cadernos de Saúde Pública - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br||cadernos@ensp.fiocruz.br |
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