A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Vetor (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/13067 |
Resumo: | The structural failure of steam generator tubes is a common problem that can a ect the availability and safety of nuclear power plants. To minimize the probability of occurrence of failure, it is needed to implement maintenance strategies such as periodic nondestructive inspections of tubes. Thus, a tube is repaired or plugged whenever it has detected a crack which a threshold size is overtaken. In general, uncertainties and errors in crack sizes are associated with the nondestructive inspections. These uncertainties and errors should be appropriately characterized to estimate the actual crack distribution. This work proposes a Bayesian approach for updating crack distributions, which in turn allows computing the failure probability of steam generator tubes at current and future times. The failure criterion is based on plastic collapse phenomenon, and the failure probability is computed by using the Monte-Carlo simulation. The failure probability at current and future times is in good agreement with the ones presented in the literature. |
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A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubesAtualização Bayesiana da distribuição de trincas em tubos de gerador de vaporSteam generator tubesCrack distributionBayesian updatingTubos do gerador de vaporDistribuição de trincasAtualização BayesianaThe structural failure of steam generator tubes is a common problem that can a ect the availability and safety of nuclear power plants. To minimize the probability of occurrence of failure, it is needed to implement maintenance strategies such as periodic nondestructive inspections of tubes. Thus, a tube is repaired or plugged whenever it has detected a crack which a threshold size is overtaken. In general, uncertainties and errors in crack sizes are associated with the nondestructive inspections. These uncertainties and errors should be appropriately characterized to estimate the actual crack distribution. This work proposes a Bayesian approach for updating crack distributions, which in turn allows computing the failure probability of steam generator tubes at current and future times. The failure criterion is based on plastic collapse phenomenon, and the failure probability is computed by using the Monte-Carlo simulation. The failure probability at current and future times is in good agreement with the ones presented in the literature.A ruptura de um dos tubos do gerador de vapor é um problema que pode afetar a disponibilidade e segurança das usinas nucleares. Para reduzir ao mínimo a probabilidade da ocorrência desse problema, deve-se implementar uma estratégia de manutenção com inspeções periódicas dos tubos do gerador de vapor, por meio de técnicas não-destrutivas. Com isso, um tubo é reparado ou tamponado sempre quando o tamanho da trinca detectada ultrapassa um valor crítico. Em geral, incertezas na detecção e erros de medição estão associados às técnicas não-destrutivas. Essas incertezas e erros devem ser caracterizados propriamente para se estimar acuradamente a distribuição dos tamanhos de trincas. Neste trabalho, propõe-se aplicar uma abordagem probabilística Bayesiana para atualizar a distribuição dos tamanhos de trinca, e a partir da distribuição obter a probabilidade de falha dos tubos do gerador de vapor em momentos presente e futuro. O critério de falha é baseado no fenômeno do colapso plástico, e a probabilidade de falha é computada através da simulação de Monte-Carlo. Os resultados de probabilidade de falha em momentos presente e futuro estão em boa concordância com valores encontrados na literatura.Universidade Federal do Rio Grande2021-07-21info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/1306710.14295/vetor.v30i2.13067VETOR - Journal of Exact Sciences and Engineering; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2020); 33-44VETOR - Revista de Ciências Exatas e Engenharias; v. 30 n. 2 (2020); 33-442358-34520102-7352reponame:Vetor (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG)instacron:FURGenghttps://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/13067/8888Copyright (c) 2021 VETOR - Revista de Ciências Exatas e Engenhariasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFrancisco, Alexandre SantosSimões, Tiago2021-08-05T21:47:31Zoai:periodicos.furg.br:article/13067Revistahttps://periodicos.furg.br/vetorPUBhttps://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/oaigmplatt@furg.br2358-34520102-7352opendoar:2021-08-05T21:47:31Vetor (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes Atualização Bayesiana da distribuição de trincas em tubos de gerador de vapor |
title |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
spellingShingle |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes Francisco, Alexandre Santos Steam generator tubes Crack distribution Bayesian updating Tubos do gerador de vapor Distribuição de trincas Atualização Bayesiana |
title_short |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
title_full |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
title_fullStr |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
title_sort |
A Bayesian updating of crack distributions in steam generator tubes |
author |
Francisco, Alexandre Santos |
author_facet |
Francisco, Alexandre Santos Simões, Tiago |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Simões, Tiago |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Francisco, Alexandre Santos Simões, Tiago |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Steam generator tubes Crack distribution Bayesian updating Tubos do gerador de vapor Distribuição de trincas Atualização Bayesiana |
topic |
Steam generator tubes Crack distribution Bayesian updating Tubos do gerador de vapor Distribuição de trincas Atualização Bayesiana |
description |
The structural failure of steam generator tubes is a common problem that can a ect the availability and safety of nuclear power plants. To minimize the probability of occurrence of failure, it is needed to implement maintenance strategies such as periodic nondestructive inspections of tubes. Thus, a tube is repaired or plugged whenever it has detected a crack which a threshold size is overtaken. In general, uncertainties and errors in crack sizes are associated with the nondestructive inspections. These uncertainties and errors should be appropriately characterized to estimate the actual crack distribution. This work proposes a Bayesian approach for updating crack distributions, which in turn allows computing the failure probability of steam generator tubes at current and future times. The failure criterion is based on plastic collapse phenomenon, and the failure probability is computed by using the Monte-Carlo simulation. The failure probability at current and future times is in good agreement with the ones presented in the literature. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-21 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/13067 10.14295/vetor.v30i2.13067 |
url |
https://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/13067 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.14295/vetor.v30i2.13067 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.furg.br/vetor/article/view/13067/8888 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 VETOR - Revista de Ciências Exatas e Engenharias info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 VETOR - Revista de Ciências Exatas e Engenharias |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
VETOR - Journal of Exact Sciences and Engineering; Vol. 30 No. 2 (2020); 33-44 VETOR - Revista de Ciências Exatas e Engenharias; v. 30 n. 2 (2020); 33-44 2358-3452 0102-7352 reponame:Vetor (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) instacron:FURG |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) |
instacron_str |
FURG |
institution |
FURG |
reponame_str |
Vetor (Online) |
collection |
Vetor (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Vetor (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
gmplatt@furg.br |
_version_ |
1797041761787314176 |