Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052014000200002 |
Resumo: | Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease. |
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Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in BrazilEucalyptusPuccinia psidiipredicting and alert systemglobal climate changesRust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia2014-06-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052014000200002Summa Phytopathologica v.40 n.2 2014reponame:Summa phytopathologica (Online)instname:Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologiainstacron:GPF10.1590/0100-5405/1945info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMoraes,Willian BuckerJesus Junior,Waldir Cintra deCecílio,Roberto AvelinoMafia,Reginaldo GonçalvesMoraes,Wanderson BuckerCosmi,Fernando CarraraValadares Junior,Ranolfoeng2014-08-06T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0100-54052014000200002Revistahttp://www.scielo.br/sphttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpsumma@fca.unesp.br1980-54540100-5405opendoar:2014-08-06T00:00Summa phytopathologica (Online) - Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologiafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil Moraes,Willian Bucker Eucalyptus Puccinia psidii predicting and alert system global climate changes |
title_short |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title_full |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
title_sort |
Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil |
author |
Moraes,Willian Bucker |
author_facet |
Moraes,Willian Bucker Jesus Junior,Waldir Cintra de Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Mafia,Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Cosmi,Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior,Ranolfo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jesus Junior,Waldir Cintra de Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Mafia,Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Cosmi,Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior,Ranolfo |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moraes,Willian Bucker Jesus Junior,Waldir Cintra de Cecílio,Roberto Avelino Mafia,Reginaldo Gonçalves Moraes,Wanderson Bucker Cosmi,Fernando Carrara Valadares Junior,Ranolfo |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Eucalyptus Puccinia psidii predicting and alert system global climate changes |
topic |
Eucalyptus Puccinia psidii predicting and alert system global climate changes |
description |
Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-06-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052014000200002 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052014000200002 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/0100-5405/1945 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Summa Phytopathologica v.40 n.2 2014 reponame:Summa phytopathologica (Online) instname:Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia instacron:GPF |
instname_str |
Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
instacron_str |
GPF |
institution |
GPF |
reponame_str |
Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
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Summa phytopathologica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Summa phytopathologica (Online) - Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
summa@fca.unesp.br |
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1754193417912451072 |