Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel |
Texto Completo: | https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217 |
Resumo: | The dynamics of the climatic elements of a given region, intervenes in the socio-environmental relations constituted, including the aspects of environmental health, prevalence of vectors transmitting diseases and the local epidemiological scenario. The objective of this study was to describe the capacity of impulse-response transmission between the historical records of climatic variables and the data of reported cases of dengue fever in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Monthly average climatic secondary data and reported cases of dengue were tabulated from January 2009 to December 2016 for the municipality. An autoregressive vector (VAR) model of the logarithmic historical series was developed, obtaining response graphs in the number of reported cases of dengue (dependent variable) due to the impulses in the climatic components (independent variables). The results showed that the 1% increase in temperature corresponds to a 0.45% increase in the number of dengue cases in the following month, reducing the effect from the 3rd month. The increase in precipitation impacts up to 0.15% in the reported cases of dengue in the following month, while the increase in the relative air humidity index negatively impacts the dependent variable. The historical series of reported cases of dengue is dependent on impulses from the variable itself (68%) and about 20% of the variations in average monthly temperature. Given the adaptability of disease vectors to climatic variations, municipal epidemiological control strategies should include the planning, monitoring and management of local climatic indicators due to socio-environmental vulnerability. |
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Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, BrazilVariáveis climáticas e casos notificados de dengue no município de Uberaba, Minas GeraisEnvironmental modelingHistorical seriesEnvironmental health.Modelagem ambientalSéries históricasSaúde ambiental.The dynamics of the climatic elements of a given region, intervenes in the socio-environmental relations constituted, including the aspects of environmental health, prevalence of vectors transmitting diseases and the local epidemiological scenario. The objective of this study was to describe the capacity of impulse-response transmission between the historical records of climatic variables and the data of reported cases of dengue fever in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Monthly average climatic secondary data and reported cases of dengue were tabulated from January 2009 to December 2016 for the municipality. An autoregressive vector (VAR) model of the logarithmic historical series was developed, obtaining response graphs in the number of reported cases of dengue (dependent variable) due to the impulses in the climatic components (independent variables). The results showed that the 1% increase in temperature corresponds to a 0.45% increase in the number of dengue cases in the following month, reducing the effect from the 3rd month. The increase in precipitation impacts up to 0.15% in the reported cases of dengue in the following month, while the increase in the relative air humidity index negatively impacts the dependent variable. The historical series of reported cases of dengue is dependent on impulses from the variable itself (68%) and about 20% of the variations in average monthly temperature. Given the adaptability of disease vectors to climatic variations, municipal epidemiological control strategies should include the planning, monitoring and management of local climatic indicators due to socio-environmental vulnerability.A dinâmica dos elementos climáticos de uma determinada região, intervém nas relações socioambientais constituídas, inclusive quanto aos aspectos da saúde ambiental, prevalência de vetores transmissores de doenças e o quadro epidemiológico local. Objetivou-se portanto, descrever a capacidade de transmissão impulso-resposta entre os registros históricos de variáveis climáticas e os dados de casos notificados de dengue no município de Uberaba, Minas Gerais, à partir de um modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR). Foram tabulados dados secundários climáticos médios mensais e casos notificados de dengue, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2016 para o município. Desenvolveu-se um modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) das séries históricas logaritmizadas, obtendo-se gráficos de resposta no número de casos notificados de dengue (variável dependente) devido aos impulsos nas componentes climáticas (variáveis independentes). Os resultados demonstraram que o aumento de 1% na temperatura, corresponde ao incremento de 0,45% no número de casos de dengue no mês seguinte, reduzindo o efeito a partir do 3º mês. O aumento da precipitação impacta em até 0,15% nos casos notificados de dengue já no mês seguinte, enquanto o aumento nos índices de umidade relativa do ar impacta negativamente a variável dependente. A série histórica de casos notificados de dengue é dependente de impulsos da própria variável (68%) e cerca de 20% das variações na temperatura média mensal. Diante da adaptabilidade dos vetores da doença às variações climáticas, as estratégias municipais de controle epidemiológico devem incluir o planejamento, monitoramento e gestão dos indicadores climáticos locais em função da vulnerabilidade socioambiental.Editora Verde2018-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/621710.18378/rvads.v13i5.6217Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; Vol. 13 No. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 651Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; Vol. 13 Núm. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 651Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; v. 13 n. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 6511981-8203reponame:Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavelinstname:Grupo Verde de Agroecologia e Abelhas (GVAA)instacron:GVAAporhttps://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/6095https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/6096https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/9821Copyright (c) 2018 Fabrício Pelizer Almeida and Flávia Alice Borges Soares Ribeiroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAlmeida, Fabrício PelizerRibeiro, Flávia Alice Borges Soares2021-06-13T13:13:36Zoai:ojs.gvaa.com.br:article/6217Revistahttps://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/PUBhttps://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/oairvadsgvaa@gmail.com || patriciomaracaja@gmail.com || revistaverde1@gmail.com || suporte@antsoft.com.br1981-82031981-8203opendoar:2024-03-06T12:59:31.515115Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel - Grupo Verde de Agroecologia e Abelhas (GVAA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil Variáveis climáticas e casos notificados de dengue no município de Uberaba, Minas Gerais |
title |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil Almeida, Fabrício Pelizer Environmental modeling Historical series Environmental health. Modelagem ambiental Séries históricas Saúde ambiental. |
title_short |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
title_full |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
title_sort |
Climatic variables and reported cases of dengue in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
author |
Almeida, Fabrício Pelizer |
author_facet |
Almeida, Fabrício Pelizer Ribeiro, Flávia Alice Borges Soares |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ribeiro, Flávia Alice Borges Soares |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Almeida, Fabrício Pelizer Ribeiro, Flávia Alice Borges Soares |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Environmental modeling Historical series Environmental health. Modelagem ambiental Séries históricas Saúde ambiental. |
topic |
Environmental modeling Historical series Environmental health. Modelagem ambiental Séries históricas Saúde ambiental. |
description |
The dynamics of the climatic elements of a given region, intervenes in the socio-environmental relations constituted, including the aspects of environmental health, prevalence of vectors transmitting diseases and the local epidemiological scenario. The objective of this study was to describe the capacity of impulse-response transmission between the historical records of climatic variables and the data of reported cases of dengue fever in the city of Uberaba, Minas Gerais, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Monthly average climatic secondary data and reported cases of dengue were tabulated from January 2009 to December 2016 for the municipality. An autoregressive vector (VAR) model of the logarithmic historical series was developed, obtaining response graphs in the number of reported cases of dengue (dependent variable) due to the impulses in the climatic components (independent variables). The results showed that the 1% increase in temperature corresponds to a 0.45% increase in the number of dengue cases in the following month, reducing the effect from the 3rd month. The increase in precipitation impacts up to 0.15% in the reported cases of dengue in the following month, while the increase in the relative air humidity index negatively impacts the dependent variable. The historical series of reported cases of dengue is dependent on impulses from the variable itself (68%) and about 20% of the variations in average monthly temperature. Given the adaptability of disease vectors to climatic variations, municipal epidemiological control strategies should include the planning, monitoring and management of local climatic indicators due to socio-environmental vulnerability. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217 10.18378/rvads.v13i5.6217 |
url |
https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.18378/rvads.v13i5.6217 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/6095 https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/6096 https://www.gvaa.com.br/revista/index.php/RVADS/article/view/6217/9821 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Fabrício Pelizer Almeida and Flávia Alice Borges Soares Ribeiro info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Fabrício Pelizer Almeida and Flávia Alice Borges Soares Ribeiro |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Editora Verde |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Editora Verde |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; Vol. 13 No. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 651 Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; Vol. 13 Núm. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 651 Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável; v. 13 n. 5 (2018): EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL; 644 - 651 1981-8203 reponame:Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel instname:Grupo Verde de Agroecologia e Abelhas (GVAA) instacron:GVAA |
instname_str |
Grupo Verde de Agroecologia e Abelhas (GVAA) |
instacron_str |
GVAA |
institution |
GVAA |
reponame_str |
Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel |
collection |
Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Verde de Agroecologia e Desenvolvimento Sustentavel - Grupo Verde de Agroecologia e Abelhas (GVAA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
rvadsgvaa@gmail.com || patriciomaracaja@gmail.com || revistaverde1@gmail.com || suporte@antsoft.com.br |
_version_ |
1798948092079243264 |