Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Bragantia |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052016000400507 |
Resumo: | ABSTRACT The need to use a length of rainfall records of at least 30 years to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) limits its application in several Drought Early Warning Systems of developing countries. Therefore, in order to increase the number of weather stations in which the SPI may be applied, this study quantified the difference among SPI values derived from calibration periods (CP) smaller than 30 years in respect to those computed from the 30-year period of 1985 – 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (time scales ranging from 1 to 12 months were considered). The correlation, agreement and consistency of SPI values derived from CP ranging from the last 30 to 21 years have been evaluated. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors test indicated, for all CP, that the 2-parameter gamma distribution may be used to calculate the SPI in the State of São Paulo. The normality test indicated that, even for the period of 1985 – 2014, the normally assumption of the SPI series is not always met. However, it was observed no remarkable difference in the rejection rates of the normality assumption obtained from the different CP. Finally, both absolute mean error and the modified index of agreement indicated a high consistence among SPI values derived from the calibration period of 1991 – 2014 (24 years) in respect to those derived from the 30-year period. Accordingly, it is possible to use weather stations with rainfall records starting in 1991 (or earlier) to calculate, in operational mode, the SPI in the State of São Paulo. |
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Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approachDrought monitoringcalibration periodsdeveloping countriesABSTRACT The need to use a length of rainfall records of at least 30 years to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) limits its application in several Drought Early Warning Systems of developing countries. Therefore, in order to increase the number of weather stations in which the SPI may be applied, this study quantified the difference among SPI values derived from calibration periods (CP) smaller than 30 years in respect to those computed from the 30-year period of 1985 – 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (time scales ranging from 1 to 12 months were considered). The correlation, agreement and consistency of SPI values derived from CP ranging from the last 30 to 21 years have been evaluated. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors test indicated, for all CP, that the 2-parameter gamma distribution may be used to calculate the SPI in the State of São Paulo. The normality test indicated that, even for the period of 1985 – 2014, the normally assumption of the SPI series is not always met. However, it was observed no remarkable difference in the rejection rates of the normality assumption obtained from the different CP. Finally, both absolute mean error and the modified index of agreement indicated a high consistence among SPI values derived from the calibration period of 1991 – 2014 (24 years) in respect to those derived from the 30-year period. Accordingly, it is possible to use weather stations with rainfall records starting in 1991 (or earlier) to calculate, in operational mode, the SPI in the State of São Paulo.Instituto Agronômico de Campinas2016-12-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052016000400507Bragantia v.75 n.4 2016reponame:Bragantiainstname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)instacron:IAC10.1590/1678-4499.478info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMeschiatti,Monica CristinaBlain,Gabriel Constantinoeng2016-10-25T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S0006-87052016000400507Revistahttps://www.scielo.br/j/brag/https://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.phpbragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br1678-44990006-8705opendoar:2016-10-25T00:00Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
title |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
spellingShingle |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach Meschiatti,Monica Cristina Drought monitoring calibration periods developing countries |
title_short |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
title_full |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
title_fullStr |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
title_sort |
Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach |
author |
Meschiatti,Monica Cristina |
author_facet |
Meschiatti,Monica Cristina Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Meschiatti,Monica Cristina Blain,Gabriel Constantino |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Drought monitoring calibration periods developing countries |
topic |
Drought monitoring calibration periods developing countries |
description |
ABSTRACT The need to use a length of rainfall records of at least 30 years to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) limits its application in several Drought Early Warning Systems of developing countries. Therefore, in order to increase the number of weather stations in which the SPI may be applied, this study quantified the difference among SPI values derived from calibration periods (CP) smaller than 30 years in respect to those computed from the 30-year period of 1985 – 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (time scales ranging from 1 to 12 months were considered). The correlation, agreement and consistency of SPI values derived from CP ranging from the last 30 to 21 years have been evaluated. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors test indicated, for all CP, that the 2-parameter gamma distribution may be used to calculate the SPI in the State of São Paulo. The normality test indicated that, even for the period of 1985 – 2014, the normally assumption of the SPI series is not always met. However, it was observed no remarkable difference in the rejection rates of the normality assumption obtained from the different CP. Finally, both absolute mean error and the modified index of agreement indicated a high consistence among SPI values derived from the calibration period of 1991 – 2014 (24 years) in respect to those derived from the 30-year period. Accordingly, it is possible to use weather stations with rainfall records starting in 1991 (or earlier) to calculate, in operational mode, the SPI in the State of São Paulo. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-12-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052016000400507 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052016000400507 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1590/1678-4499.478 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Bragantia v.75 n.4 2016 reponame:Bragantia instname:Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) instacron:IAC |
instname_str |
Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) |
instacron_str |
IAC |
institution |
IAC |
reponame_str |
Bragantia |
collection |
Bragantia |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Bragantia - Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (IAC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br||bragantia@iac.sp.gov.br |
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1754193305231425536 |