Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Cardoso Júnior, Eleomar
Data de Publicação: 2023
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Remat (Bento Gonçalves)
Texto Completo: https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/6574
Resumo: This paper proposes to present a probabilistic study on the possible position to be occupied by a tennis player in a ranking based on the results of the elimination rounds of an important tournament. A situation is considered in which the expected results for tennis matches are equiprobable events and, another, in which the previous performance of the tennis players is observed in the evaluation of their chances of success. The study follows the tournament in different stages and presents updates as the results of the matches are known. Both treatments allow predictions that are adequate in the studied example. It is thus possible to establish, with some certainly, the ranking of the tennis player at the end of the tournament even using a methodology that is not very informative from a probabilistic point of view. Finally, the study requires an understanding of elementary counting and probability tools, which makes it accessible to the knowledge treated in Brazilian secondary school.
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spelling Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting eventProbabilidad elemental: una aplicación en el estudio de posicionamiento en ranking basado en los resultados de partidos eliminatorios en un evento deportivoProbabilidade elementar: uma aplicação no estudo de posicionamento em ranking a depender de resultados de partidas eliminatórias em evento esportivoProbabilidadeContagemRankingPrevisões EsportivasProbabilityCountingRankingSports PredictionsProbabilidadConteoRankingPronósticos DeportivosThis paper proposes to present a probabilistic study on the possible position to be occupied by a tennis player in a ranking based on the results of the elimination rounds of an important tournament. A situation is considered in which the expected results for tennis matches are equiprobable events and, another, in which the previous performance of the tennis players is observed in the evaluation of their chances of success. The study follows the tournament in different stages and presents updates as the results of the matches are known. Both treatments allow predictions that are adequate in the studied example. It is thus possible to establish, with some certainly, the ranking of the tennis player at the end of the tournament even using a methodology that is not very informative from a probabilistic point of view. Finally, the study requires an understanding of elementary counting and probability tools, which makes it accessible to the knowledge treated in Brazilian secondary school.Este trabajo propone realizar un estudio de probabilidad sobre la posible posición a ocupar por una tenista en un ranking basado en los resultados de las rondas eliminatorias de un importante torneo. Se considera una situación en la que los resultados esperados de los partidos de tenis son eventos igualmente probables y, otra, en la que se observa el desempeño previo de las tenistas en la evaluación de sus posibilidades de éxito. El estudio sigue el torneo en diferentes etapas y proporciona actualizaciones a medida que se conocen los resultados de los partidos. Ambos tratamientos permiten predicciones que son adecuadas en el ejemplo estudiado. De esta forma, es posible establecer, con cierta certeza, la clasificación de la tenista al final del torneo, incluso utilizando una metodología poco informativa desde el punto de vista probabilístico. Finalmente, el estudio requiere una comprensión de las herramientas elementales de conteo y probabilidad, lo que lo hace accesible a los conocimientos tratados en la escuela secundaria brasileña.Este artigo se propõe a apresentar um estudo probabilístico acerca da eventual posição a ser ocupada por uma tenista em um ranking a depender dos resultados das partidas eliminatórias de um torneio de referência. São consideradas uma situação em que os resultados esperados para as partidas de tênis são eventos equiprováveis e, outra, em que se observa o desempenho pregresso das tenistas na avaliação de suas chances de êxito. O estudo acompanha o torneio em várias etapas e apresenta atualizações à medida em que são conhecidos os desfechos de partidas. Ambos os tratamentos permitem, no exemplo trabalhado, previsões que se mostram adequadas. É possível estabelecer, portanto, com certa segurança, a colocação da tenista ao término do torneio mesmo quando se utiliza uma metodologia pouco informativa sob o ponto de vista probabilístico. O estudo requer a compreensão de ferramentas elementares de contagem e probabilidade, o que o torna acessível a conhecimentos previstos no ensino médio brasileiro.Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul2023-09-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtigo avaliado pelos paresapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/657410.35819/remat2023v9i2id6574REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023); e3002REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 9 Núm. 2 (2023); e3002REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; v. 9 n. 2 (2023); e30022447-2689reponame:Remat (Bento Gonçalves)instname:Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)instacron:IFRSporhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/6574/3449Copyright (c) 2023 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemáticahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCardoso Júnior, Eleomar2023-09-29T18:24:04Zoai:ojs2.periodicos.ifrs.edu.br:article/6574Revistahttp://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMATPUBhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/oai||greice.andreis@caxias.ifrs.edu.br2447-26892447-2689opendoar:2023-09-29T18:24:04Remat (Bento Gonçalves) - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
Probabilidad elemental: una aplicación en el estudio de posicionamiento en ranking basado en los resultados de partidos eliminatorios en un evento deportivo
Probabilidade elementar: uma aplicação no estudo de posicionamento em ranking a depender de resultados de partidas eliminatórias em evento esportivo
title Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
spellingShingle Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
Cardoso Júnior, Eleomar
Probabilidade
Contagem
Ranking
Previsões Esportivas
Probability
Counting
Ranking
Sports Predictions
Probabilidad
Conteo
Ranking
Pronósticos Deportivos
title_short Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
title_full Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
title_fullStr Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
title_full_unstemmed Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
title_sort Elementary probability: an application in the study of ranking position depending on the results of elimination matches in a sporting event
author Cardoso Júnior, Eleomar
author_facet Cardoso Júnior, Eleomar
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Cardoso Júnior, Eleomar
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Probabilidade
Contagem
Ranking
Previsões Esportivas
Probability
Counting
Ranking
Sports Predictions
Probabilidad
Conteo
Ranking
Pronósticos Deportivos
topic Probabilidade
Contagem
Ranking
Previsões Esportivas
Probability
Counting
Ranking
Sports Predictions
Probabilidad
Conteo
Ranking
Pronósticos Deportivos
description This paper proposes to present a probabilistic study on the possible position to be occupied by a tennis player in a ranking based on the results of the elimination rounds of an important tournament. A situation is considered in which the expected results for tennis matches are equiprobable events and, another, in which the previous performance of the tennis players is observed in the evaluation of their chances of success. The study follows the tournament in different stages and presents updates as the results of the matches are known. Both treatments allow predictions that are adequate in the studied example. It is thus possible to establish, with some certainly, the ranking of the tennis player at the end of the tournament even using a methodology that is not very informative from a probabilistic point of view. Finally, the study requires an understanding of elementary counting and probability tools, which makes it accessible to the knowledge treated in Brazilian secondary school.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-09-29
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Artigo avaliado pelos pares
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/6574
10.35819/remat2023v9i2id6574
url https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/6574
identifier_str_mv 10.35819/remat2023v9i2id6574
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/6574/3449
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023); e3002
REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 9 Núm. 2 (2023); e3002
REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; v. 9 n. 2 (2023); e3002
2447-2689
reponame:Remat (Bento Gonçalves)
instname:Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)
instacron:IFRS
instname_str Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)
instacron_str IFRS
institution IFRS
reponame_str Remat (Bento Gonçalves)
collection Remat (Bento Gonçalves)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Remat (Bento Gonçalves) - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||greice.andreis@caxias.ifrs.edu.br
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