Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Remat (Bento Gonçalves) |
Texto Completo: | https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/4586 |
Resumo: | Benford’s Law states that in sets of random numbers the prospect of the first digit of these numbers being 1 is greater than that of the following digits. Thus, the distribution proposed by Benford’s law shows that number 1 has approximately a 30.1% chance of being the first digit then the digit 2, with 17.6%, digit 3, with 12.5%, and so on, until number 9 is reached, having a 4.6% chance. In this context, the objective of the study is to verify whether this law applies to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries. The research, employing a quantitative method, treated and analyzed data collected on the World Health Organization (WHO) website, selecting the following countries, chosen randomly, according to the notoriety received in national and international media: China, Italy, New Zealand, Brazil and the United States of America (USA). To assess the discrepancy between the observed and expected relative frequencies, the frequency comparison test was used. The results found demonstrated that the numbers for China and New Zealand had calculated X² smaller than the critical X², while Italy, Brazil and the USA had calculated X² greater than the critical X², all at a 5% significance level. Consequently, it was concluded that Benford’s Law applied to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in China and New Zealand, being rejected by the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in Italy, Brazil and the USA. |
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Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countriesAplicação da Lei de Benford nos números de casos confirmados de COVID-19 em diferentes paísesCOVID-19Números de Casos ConfirmadosLei de BenfordTeste de Comparação de FrequênciasCOVID-19Numbers of Confirmed CasesBenford’s LawFrequency Comparison TestBenford’s Law states that in sets of random numbers the prospect of the first digit of these numbers being 1 is greater than that of the following digits. Thus, the distribution proposed by Benford’s law shows that number 1 has approximately a 30.1% chance of being the first digit then the digit 2, with 17.6%, digit 3, with 12.5%, and so on, until number 9 is reached, having a 4.6% chance. In this context, the objective of the study is to verify whether this law applies to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries. The research, employing a quantitative method, treated and analyzed data collected on the World Health Organization (WHO) website, selecting the following countries, chosen randomly, according to the notoriety received in national and international media: China, Italy, New Zealand, Brazil and the United States of America (USA). To assess the discrepancy between the observed and expected relative frequencies, the frequency comparison test was used. The results found demonstrated that the numbers for China and New Zealand had calculated X² smaller than the critical X², while Italy, Brazil and the USA had calculated X² greater than the critical X², all at a 5% significance level. Consequently, it was concluded that Benford’s Law applied to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in China and New Zealand, being rejected by the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in Italy, Brazil and the USA.A Lei de Benford afirma que, em conjuntos de números aleatórios, a probabilidade de o primeiro dígito desses números ser 1 é maior do que a dos dígitos seguintes. Dessa forma, a distribuição proposta por essa lei mostra que o 1 tem aproximadamente 30,1% de chances de ser o primeiro; em seguida, o dígito 2, com 17,6%; o 3, com 12,5% e assim por diante, até chegar ao dígito 9, com 4,6% de chance. Nesse contexto, assume-se, como objetivo, verificar se a Lei de Benford se aplica aos números de casos confirmados da doença COVID-19 em diferentes países. A pesquisa, do tipo quantitativa, tratou e analisou dados coletados no site da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS) dos seguintes países, escolhidos aleatoriamente, conforme notoriedade nas mídias nacionais e internacionais: China, Itália, Nova Zelândia, Brasil e Estados Unidos da América (EUA). Para avaliar a discrepância entre as frequências relativas observadas e esperadas, utilizou-se o teste de comparação de frequências. Os resultados encontrados mostraram que os números da China e da Nova Zelândia tiveram X² calculado menor que o X² crítico, enquanto a Itália, o Brasil e os EUA tiveram X² calculado maior que o X² crítico, todos em um nível de significância de 5%. Assim, concluiu-se que a Lei de Benford aplicou-se aos números de casos confirmados da doença COVID-19 na China e na Nova Zelândia, sendo rejeitada pelos números de casos confirmados da doença COVID-19 na Itália, no Brasil e nos EUA.Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul2021-02-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtigo avaliado pelos paresapplication/pdfhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/458610.35819/remat2021v7i1id4586REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 7 No. 1 (2021); e3005REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 7 Núm. 1 (2021); e3005REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; v. 7 n. 1 (2021); e30052447-2689reponame:Remat (Bento Gonçalves)instname:Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)instacron:IFRSporhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/4586/2844Copyright (c) 2021 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemáticahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMenezes, Rhômulo Oliveira2022-12-28T16:06:35Zoai:ojs2.periodicos.ifrs.edu.br:article/4586Revistahttp://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMATPUBhttps://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/oai||greice.andreis@caxias.ifrs.edu.br2447-26892447-2689opendoar:2022-12-28T16:06:35Remat (Bento Gonçalves) - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries Aplicação da Lei de Benford nos números de casos confirmados de COVID-19 em diferentes países |
title |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
spellingShingle |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries Menezes, Rhômulo Oliveira COVID-19 Números de Casos Confirmados Lei de Benford Teste de Comparação de Frequências COVID-19 Numbers of Confirmed Cases Benford’s Law Frequency Comparison Test |
title_short |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
title_full |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
title_fullStr |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
title_sort |
Benford’s Law applied to COVID-19 confirmed case numbers in different countries |
author |
Menezes, Rhômulo Oliveira |
author_facet |
Menezes, Rhômulo Oliveira |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Menezes, Rhômulo Oliveira |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Números de Casos Confirmados Lei de Benford Teste de Comparação de Frequências COVID-19 Numbers of Confirmed Cases Benford’s Law Frequency Comparison Test |
topic |
COVID-19 Números de Casos Confirmados Lei de Benford Teste de Comparação de Frequências COVID-19 Numbers of Confirmed Cases Benford’s Law Frequency Comparison Test |
description |
Benford’s Law states that in sets of random numbers the prospect of the first digit of these numbers being 1 is greater than that of the following digits. Thus, the distribution proposed by Benford’s law shows that number 1 has approximately a 30.1% chance of being the first digit then the digit 2, with 17.6%, digit 3, with 12.5%, and so on, until number 9 is reached, having a 4.6% chance. In this context, the objective of the study is to verify whether this law applies to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries. The research, employing a quantitative method, treated and analyzed data collected on the World Health Organization (WHO) website, selecting the following countries, chosen randomly, according to the notoriety received in national and international media: China, Italy, New Zealand, Brazil and the United States of America (USA). To assess the discrepancy between the observed and expected relative frequencies, the frequency comparison test was used. The results found demonstrated that the numbers for China and New Zealand had calculated X² smaller than the critical X², while Italy, Brazil and the USA had calculated X² greater than the critical X², all at a 5% significance level. Consequently, it was concluded that Benford’s Law applied to the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in China and New Zealand, being rejected by the numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 disease in Italy, Brazil and the USA. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-02-05 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Artigo avaliado pelos pares |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/4586 10.35819/remat2021v7i1id4586 |
url |
https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/4586 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.35819/remat2021v7i1id4586 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://periodicos.ifrs.edu.br/index.php/REMAT/article/view/4586/2844 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 7 No. 1 (2021); e3005 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; Vol. 7 Núm. 1 (2021); e3005 REMAT: Revista Eletrônica da Matemática; v. 7 n. 1 (2021); e3005 2447-2689 reponame:Remat (Bento Gonçalves) instname:Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS) instacron:IFRS |
instname_str |
Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS) |
instacron_str |
IFRS |
institution |
IFRS |
reponame_str |
Remat (Bento Gonçalves) |
collection |
Remat (Bento Gonçalves) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Remat (Bento Gonçalves) - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Sul (IFRS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||greice.andreis@caxias.ifrs.edu.br |
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1798329706040262656 |