Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Revista Ambiente & Água |
Texto Completo: | http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1980-993X2020000600309 |
Resumo: | Abstract The Brazilian energetic matrix is predominantly based on hydroelectric plants and its planning is very sensitive to climate variability in different time scales. Natural Affluent Energy (NAE) is an established planning tool to project different scenarios of possible energy production, especially in an integrated system. This work aims to fill a gap between short-term (seasonal/ interannual) and long-term (climate change) planning scales by realizing NAE medium-term projections for the Brazilian National Interconnected System basins. The historical NAE series provided by the National System Operator was used for the years 1931 to 2014. The series was divided into two periods: from 1931 to 2003 for verification, and from 2004 to 2014 for calibration. The Wavelets Auto-Regressive (WAR) model was applied from low- and medium-frequency bands. The band signal was analyzed and the NAE was projected for the years 2014 to 2024. A relationship of the NAE variability with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was verified. |
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Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using waveletsmedium-term projectionnatural affluent energywaveletsAbstract The Brazilian energetic matrix is predominantly based on hydroelectric plants and its planning is very sensitive to climate variability in different time scales. Natural Affluent Energy (NAE) is an established planning tool to project different scenarios of possible energy production, especially in an integrated system. This work aims to fill a gap between short-term (seasonal/ interannual) and long-term (climate change) planning scales by realizing NAE medium-term projections for the Brazilian National Interconnected System basins. The historical NAE series provided by the National System Operator was used for the years 1931 to 2014. The series was divided into two periods: from 1931 to 2003 for verification, and from 2004 to 2014 for calibration. The Wavelets Auto-Regressive (WAR) model was applied from low- and medium-frequency bands. The band signal was analyzed and the NAE was projected for the years 2014 to 2024. A relationship of the NAE variability with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was verified.Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas2020-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersiontext/htmlhttp://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1980-993X2020000600309Revista Ambiente & Água v.15 n.6 2020reponame:Revista Ambiente & Águainstname:Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHI)instacron:IPABHI10.4136/ambi-agua.2583info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva,Francisco Wellington Martins daSilveira,Cleiton da SilvaMarcos Junior,Antônio DuarteFilho,João Dehon de Araujo Ponteseng2020-11-24T00:00:00Zoai:scielo:S1980-993X2020000600309Revistahttp://www.ambi-agua.net/PUBhttps://old.scielo.br/oai/scielo-oai.php||ambi.agua@gmail.com1980-993X1980-993Xopendoar:2020-11-24T00:00Revista Ambiente & Água - Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHI)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
title |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
spellingShingle |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets Silva,Francisco Wellington Martins da medium-term projection natural affluent energy wavelets |
title_short |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
title_full |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
title_fullStr |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
title_sort |
Medium-term projection for the National Hydro-Electrical System using wavelets |
author |
Silva,Francisco Wellington Martins da |
author_facet |
Silva,Francisco Wellington Martins da Silveira,Cleiton da Silva Marcos Junior,Antônio Duarte Filho,João Dehon de Araujo Pontes |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silveira,Cleiton da Silva Marcos Junior,Antônio Duarte Filho,João Dehon de Araujo Pontes |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva,Francisco Wellington Martins da Silveira,Cleiton da Silva Marcos Junior,Antônio Duarte Filho,João Dehon de Araujo Pontes |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
medium-term projection natural affluent energy wavelets |
topic |
medium-term projection natural affluent energy wavelets |
description |
Abstract The Brazilian energetic matrix is predominantly based on hydroelectric plants and its planning is very sensitive to climate variability in different time scales. Natural Affluent Energy (NAE) is an established planning tool to project different scenarios of possible energy production, especially in an integrated system. This work aims to fill a gap between short-term (seasonal/ interannual) and long-term (climate change) planning scales by realizing NAE medium-term projections for the Brazilian National Interconnected System basins. The historical NAE series provided by the National System Operator was used for the years 1931 to 2014. The series was divided into two periods: from 1931 to 2003 for verification, and from 2004 to 2014 for calibration. The Wavelets Auto-Regressive (WAR) model was applied from low- and medium-frequency bands. The band signal was analyzed and the NAE was projected for the years 2014 to 2024. A relationship of the NAE variability with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was verified. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-01-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1980-993X2020000600309 |
url |
http://old.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1980-993X2020000600309 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.4136/ambi-agua.2583 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
text/html |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Revista Ambiente & Água v.15 n.6 2020 reponame:Revista Ambiente & Água instname:Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHI) instacron:IPABHI |
instname_str |
Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHI) |
instacron_str |
IPABHI |
institution |
IPABHI |
reponame_str |
Revista Ambiente & Água |
collection |
Revista Ambiente & Água |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Revista Ambiente & Água - Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais em Bacias Hidrográficas (IPABHI) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||ambi.agua@gmail.com |
_version_ |
1752129751329275904 |