Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Reche, Cleverton Santos
Data de Publicação: 2017
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da Uninove
Texto Completo: http://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/handle/tede/1758
Resumo: Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study.
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spelling Ramos, Heidy RodriguezRamos, Heidy RodriguezRuiz, Mauro SilvaCarvalho, Daniel Estima dehttp://lattes.cnpq.br/6610071382868802Reche, Cleverton Santos2018-04-13T18:14:33Z2017-06-28Reche, Cleverton Santos. Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos. 2017. 153 f. Dissertação( Programa de Mestrado em Cidades Inteligentes e Sustentáveis) - Universidade Nove de Julho, São Paulo.http://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/handle/tede/1758Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study.Atualmente as grandes metrópoles buscam melhorar a qualidade de vida de sua população em aspectos a mobilidade urbana. O etanol é um biocombustível renovável, de grande relevância para o Brasil, porque é um combustível limpo. O aumento do seu consumo frente a outros combustíveis fósseis poderá ter um impacto positivo na redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa. A pergunta de pesquisa que norteou o estudo foi: quais seriam os cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030? Para tanto, este trabalho adotou o formato de estudos independentes e sequenciais, somando ao todo, 3 estudos. O estudo I foi realizado, a partir de uma busca na base de dados Web of Science, com o objetivo de verificar a construção do conhecimento do tema “Cenários Prospectivos”, por meio da identificação das principais publicações e autores, a partir de uma análise bibliométrica. Foram encontrados 232 artigos, os quais foram classificados por ordem decrescente do autor mais citado para o menos citado. Este estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de uma análise fatorial exploratória e foram identificados cinco fatores. Na sequência, foi desenvolvido o estudo II com o objetivo de revisar e comparar as metodologias de cenários prospectivos para identificar os métodos mais utilizados e realizar a comparação entre os métodos. Os artigos foram separados em grupos de relevância pelo tema para, posteriormente, realizar uma análise comparativa, fornecendo uma visão dos aspectos práticos do planejamento de cenários, como a seleção e o número apropriado de cenários para validação. Por fim, foi elaborado o estudo III com o objetivo de propor cenários para o etanol produzido no Brasil em 2030. A coleta dos dados foi a partir do envio de um questionário a especialistas sobre o tema, via internet, seguindo as diretrizes do método Delphi. Foram elaborados 3 cenários prospectivos: um cenário provável, um cenário exploratório e um cenário normativo. Os cenários tiveram como base o contexto do setor sucroenergético, por meio das incertezas, oportunidades e ameaças e a análise de ambientes complexos apresentados no estudo.Submitted by Nadir Basilio (nadirsb@uninove.br) on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleverton Santos Reche.pdf: 2749690 bytes, checksum: 69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-28application/pdfporUniversidade Nove de JulhoPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Cidades Inteligentes e SustentáveisUNINOVEBrasilAdministraçãocenáriosetanolmétodo DelphiscenariosethanolDelphi methodCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAOAnálise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis8024035432632778221600info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da Uninoveinstname:Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE)instacron:UNINOVEORIGINALCleverton Santos Reche.pdfCleverton Santos Reche.pdfapplication/pdf2749690http://localhost:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/1758/2/Cleverton+Santos+Reche.pdf69d6333ae48031e32c4331a9736c6346MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82165http://localhost:8080/tede/bitstream/tede/1758/1/license.txtbd3efa91386c1718a7f26a329fdcb468MD51tede/17582021-10-07 17:14:23.093oai:localhost: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Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttp://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/PRIhttp://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/oai/requestbibliotecatede@uninove.br||bibliotecatede@uninove.bropendoar:2021-10-07T20:14:23Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da Uninove - Universidade Nove de Julho (UNINOVE)false
dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
title Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
spellingShingle Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
Reche, Cleverton Santos
cenários
etanol
método Delphi
scenarios
ethanol
Delphi method
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
title_short Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
title_full Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
title_fullStr Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
title_full_unstemmed Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
title_sort Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos
author Reche, Cleverton Santos
author_facet Reche, Cleverton Santos
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Ramos, Heidy Rodriguez
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Ramos, Heidy Rodriguez
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Ruiz, Mauro Silva
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Carvalho, Daniel Estima de
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/6610071382868802
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Reche, Cleverton Santos
contributor_str_mv Ramos, Heidy Rodriguez
Ramos, Heidy Rodriguez
Ruiz, Mauro Silva
Carvalho, Daniel Estima de
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv cenários
etanol
método Delphi
topic cenários
etanol
método Delphi
scenarios
ethanol
Delphi method
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv scenarios
ethanol
Delphi method
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ADMINISTRACAO
description Currently, large metropolises seek to improve the quality of life of their population in aspects of urban mobility. Ethanol is a renewable biofuel, of great relevance to Brazil, because it is a clean fuel. Increased consumption compared to other fossil fuels could have a positive impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research question that guided the study was: what scenarios for ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030? For this, this work adopted the format of independent and sequential studies, totaling 3 studies. Study I was carried out, based on a search in the Web of Science database, with the objective of verifying the construction of the knowledge of the theme "Prospective Scenarios", through the identification of the main publications and authors, based on an analysis Bibliometric. We found 232 articles, which were ranked in descending order of the most cited author for the least cited. This study was developed from an exploratory factorial analysis and five factors were identified. Subsequently, study II was developed with the objective of reviewing and comparing the methodologies of prospective scenarios to identify the most used methods and to compare the methods. The articles were separated into groups of relevant relevance for the theme to later carry out a comparative analysis, providing a view of the practical aspects of scenario planning, such as the selection and the appropriate number of scenarios for validation. Finally, study III was elaborated with the objective of proposing scenarios for the ethanol produced in Brazil in 2030. The data collection was done by sending a questionnaire to specialists on the subject, via the internet, following the guidelines of the Delphi method. Three prospective scenarios were elaborated: a probable scenario, an exploratory scenario and a normative scenario. The scenarios were based on the context of the sugarcane sector, through the uncertainties, opportunities and threats and the analysis of complex environments presented in the study.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2017-06-28
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2018-04-13T18:14:33Z
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv Reche, Cleverton Santos. Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos. 2017. 153 f. Dissertação( Programa de Mestrado em Cidades Inteligentes e Sustentáveis) - Universidade Nove de Julho, São Paulo.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://bibliotecatede.uninove.br/handle/tede/1758
identifier_str_mv Reche, Cleverton Santos. Análise futura do etanol do Brasil por meio da geração de cenários prospectivos. 2017. 153 f. Dissertação( Programa de Mestrado em Cidades Inteligentes e Sustentáveis) - Universidade Nove de Julho, São Paulo.
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