A política de subsídios habitacionais e sua influência na dinâmica de investimento imobiliário e no déficit de moradias do Brasil e do Chile

• Autor(a) principal: Magnabosco, Ana Lélia
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_SP
• Texto Completo: https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9159
• topic: Política de subsídios habitacionais; Déficit habitacional - Brasil; Déficit habitacional - Chile; Crédito imobiliário; Investimento em moradias; Housing subsidy policy; Housing deficit - Brazil; Housing deficit - Chile; Real-estate credit; Investment in housing; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA

The Brazilian experience with nationwide systematic housing subsidy programs started with the 1964 reforms of the financial system. Under this system, Housing Companies provided subsidies using resources from local and state governments as well as FGTS funds, while production was supervised by the National Housing Bank (BNH). In the mid 1980s the system faced a crisis and the BNH was extinguished. The entities that coordinated housing policy collapsed and for nearly two decades the country lacked both resources and a clear strategy. In the 2000s, the federal government took a series of initiatives intended to restore and fund the institutions in charge of leading housing policy and started to provide explicit subsidies to the lower-income segments of society. The main housing subsidy programs created during this period were Programa de Subsídio Habitacional (Housing Subsidy Program), in 2003, and Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida (My Home My Life Program), in 2009. Additionally, the Sistema Nacional de Habitação de Interesse Social and the Fundo Nacional de Habitação de Interesse Social (two institutions created to provide subsidies to low income housing), both established in 2005, and the Plano Nacional de Habitação (National Housing Plan), established in 2008, represented an attempt to reorganize the housing policy institutions. The influence of subsidies on the real-estate market dynamics is hardly discussed in the theoretical and empirical literature. Generally, authors treat subsidies as mere income transfer. This dissertation is based on a different assumption. It s assumed that subsidy policies not only transfer income, but also reduce the housing effective cost of acquisition, interfere in saving decisions and in banks decisions regarding the supply of credit. This investigation assumes that the financial market is imperfect, which implies the possibility of credit rationing. These assumptions are based on the observation of the Chilean experience of housing credit and subsidies to low income buyers in the past 30 years. For this reason, this dissertation investigates the subsidy policy in Chile and its relation with credit and real-estate investment. Chapter 1 presents a dynamic model of real-estate investment and analyzes the effects of the subsidy policy in this market. Based on simple premises, this study finds that subsidies change the balance of the housing deficit, increasing the credit supply of banks and the credit demand of families. Chapter 2 applies the key relations of the theoretical model to study the Chilean case. This analysis employs logistic regression models and concludes that the subsidy policies resulted in an increase of the credit supply in Chile, which in turn helped reduce the housing deficit. Chapter 3 analyzes Brazilian housing policy. This analysis identifies the variables affecting the Brazilian housing deficit and reveals a market that behaves very similarly to Chile s. This comparative analysis provides the basis to speculate on the path that the Brazilian housing deficit will take in the coming years. The main conclusion is that a subsidy and credit policy similar to that of Chile is quite effective in fighting housing deficit caused by inadequate houses, but it could increase the number of families living together. Therefore, it fights housing deficit only in part